SODA Update

So, looks like a good call avoiding jumping in on SODA.  It is down 20% today after reporting its third-quarter net income and revenue increased 52%. Shares slid as margins edged down to 56.3% from 56.9% and in the wake of a huge run-up following its initial public offering, which priced at $20 a share. SODA has been in an overbought condition since the run up began...

Happy Trading...

Ford (F)

Ford's 16 Mar 2011 Calls were undervalued slightly this morning going for a low of 1.27.  We were picking them up 1t 1.31 to close at 1.49 this afternoon on 360 transactions and F closing at 16.10 aftermarket.

F was expected to pullback based on its valution compared to GM at their IPO, 18 was the resistance we were looking for to start buying PUTS but it never hit that before the pullback, today provide a great buying opportunity.  Still room for profit even at 1.50 given the stock only needs to be at 17.50 to be break even and we still have time and volitility on our side to generate some quick returns...  Looking to dump at 2-2.10...

Happy trading...

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Turkey Options! (TSN)

Tyson Foods is rated 5-stars by S&P (reiterated strong buy) and a buy by Ford Equity and Jaywalk, The Street and Credit Suise both have hold ratings...  All ratings are within the past week.  TSN is currently trading 16.35 and is 6% shorted.  They pay a dividend of .04 on 29 November, are 85% held by institutions and have traded down to 11 and up to 20 in the past 52-weeks.  It is currently at its 50-day moving average and well above its 200-day.  All indicators are showing positive movements for this stock... So what's the trade.  Since we are very bullish on TSN we could just sell PUTS and accept the potential risk, buy some April 17 calls with 140-days to expiration or buy the stock outright and cover on the way-up.  I think this is a simple one and buying the 17-calls for 1.05-1.10 is solid with minimal risk.  The premium isn't that high and volitility is around 33%.  This means there probably won't be quick doubles but given the time we could see a double based on the underlying rising above 18 by April and then close the calls.  Depending on world events it may be worth putting a limit to buy the calls around .90 - 1.00 and catching any fall in the market over the next week.

Happy Trading...

SODA and an IPO Update

Trying to understand why SODA has jumped over the past several trading sessions this list popped up and I thought I would share... 

SODA makes the device that carbonates tap water allowing you to make your own soda (or pop) in a multitude of flavors.  This may be the next Green Mountain and provide tremendous returns.  I have been watching it jump almost 10 points since I was discussing it with the trading group.  My only issue is the low volume and lack of readily available substantial news to support the run.  We may look at picking up some puts if we can't find any news that has driven the recent price up...

Company Symbol Percent Current Offer Date


SodaStream Intl ltd SODA 111% $42.28 $20.00 2-Nov-10

MakeMyTrip Ltd MMYT 106% $28.82 $14.00 8-Aug-10

Vera Bradley Inc. VRA 90% $30.46 $16.00 21-Oct-10

IntraLinks Holdings Inc. IL 53% $19.88 $13.00 6-Aug-10

Fresh Market Inc. TFM 49% $32.76 $22.00 4-Nov-10

Daqo New Energy Corp. DQ 26% $12.00 $9.50 7-Oct-10

Amyris Biotechnologies AMRS 26% $20.14 $16.00 28-Aug-10

Ambow Education Hold AMBO 22% $12.18 $10.00 5-Aug-10

MediaMind Technologies MDMD 21% $13.30 $11.00 8-Aug-10

SeaCube Container Leasing BOX 21% $12.07 $10.00 27-Oct-10

KEYW Holding KEYW 18% $11.79 $10.00 30-Sep-10

Rhino Resources RNO 18% $24.11 $20.50 29-Sep-10

Booz Allen Hamilton Holding BAH 18% $19.99 $17.00 16-Nov-10

SciQuest Inc. SQI 15% $12.85 $9.50 23-Aug-10

RealPage Inc. RP 15% $27.12 $11.00 8-Aug-10

Tower International Inc. TOWR 14% $14.88 $13.00 14-Oct-10

LPL Investments Holding LPLA 9% $32.60 $30.00 17-Nov-10

Aeroflex Holdings Corp. ARX 7% $14.51 $13.50 18-Nov-10

Regeneron Pharmaceutical REGN 4% $29.22 $28.00 8-Oct-10

Aegerion Pharmaceuticals AEGR 4% $9.84 $9.50 22-Oct-10

General Motors Co. GM 1% $33.47 $33.00 17-Nov-10

Campus Crest Communities CCG 0% $12.55 $12.50 13-Oct-10

Ellingtion Financial EFC 0% $22.56 $22.50 7-Oct-10

Primo Water Corp. PRMW 0% $12.02 $12.00 4-Nov-10

Body Central Corp. BODY 0% $13.01 $13.00 14-Oct-10

Cazador Acquisition CAZAU 0% $10.00 $10.00 7-Oct-10

Zogenix Inc. ZGNX -4% $3.85 $4.00 22-Nov-10

Costamare Inc. CMRE -6% $11.24 $12.00 3-Nov-10

Horizon Technology Finance HRZN -8% $14.75 $16.00 28-Oct-10

NXP Semiconductors N.V. NXPI -10% $12.66 $14.00 5-Aug-10

Genomics GNOM -11% $7.97 $9.00 11-Nov-10

Pacific Bioscience of Calif. PACB -26% $11.82 $16.00 26-Oct-10

Trius Therapeutics Inc. TSRX -30% $3.50 $5.00 4-Aug-10

NuPathe Inc. PATH -45% $5.48 $10.00 6-Aug-10

Happy Trading...

GMCR Monday Update

As expected our Mar 35 Calls jumped... up... over 120% as of Friday's close.  I have closed out today as I see some short covering in this rally, after all we are at the top of the 52-week high of 37.97.

GMCR +18%
GMCR Mark 35 Calls +123%

Happy Trading...

Green Mountain News (GMCR)

GMCR is up 11% after resuming trading and restating the past several years earnings.  This is why we layered into them.  Monday our March 11 35 Calls should be decently profitable!

Happy Trading...

Green Mountain Update + TNK dividend and Citi to Cisco

So, GMCR has been taking a hit over the last 3-days with earnings due out by the 22nd.  The lack of a decision on report date is making investors nervous but a strong showing in puts traded today may indicate a bullish bet or at least some support at the 27 dollar level last touched.  Also, it appears some competition may be coming from alternative pod makers getting into retail spaces and the shortage of coffee beans raising the raw coffee price up.

This is why we use options instead of the equity.

TNK earnings today of .31 cents lower than the last two quarters but we are still in well above a 10% yield.

I sold out of my Citi (C) holdings at 4.50 this week, good top and placed that into CSCO near the bottom.  Will look at covering this next quarter.

Happy Trading...

Green Mountain Showing More Support (GMCR)

You may have read our last post on GMCR where we were trading options in the high 20's.  Since then GMCR has touched backed to 35 and has since pulled backto the 31 range showing strong support on a day like today where the DOW is down 100 points.  GMCR gapped down and dropped only to show support quickly and pull back up.

GMCR recenlty has been upgraded with a target price of $40 and S&P raised it to neutral.  The news that dropped it hard has subsided and shouldn't have any impact ont the business.

We are layering into March 2011 $35 calls 5 at a time.  They touched 2.75 this morning and the interest in actually purchasing the options is low so you have to have your plan in place with buying and selling prices in place.

Happy Trading...

Cord Blood News Trend (CBAI)

I don't like discussing penny stocks because they are, for the most part, gambling.  However, we have been successful trading a few in the past.  The only one that I will metion here since it has had a very consistent news announcemnet trend is Cord Blood America, CBAI.OB.   We recently picked this up at .0039 after watching it bottom-out after it's last pop on news.  News came out a couple of days ago about some health care insurance partnerships that led to the rapid increase on large (relative) volume.  We got out at .0065 for a 62% profit.  It topped out a little higher at the end of the day but as the chart shows we got out as close to the high as you could without a time-machine.



I truly like this company and what the CEO is doing.  I believe at some point in the future this will be a viable investment and those that hold shares and forget about them will see a nice return.  Cord Blood Storage, while not an insurance policy given the statistics of actually ever using it, is inexpensive enough and the science is still in its infancy that one-day this may help people overcome some of the most serious diseases we battle today.  A few more strategic moves to beef up the balance sheet with some profit and a reverse-split to raise the stock price to gain some attention and CBAI will be set to soar.

I will be back in when it pulls back below .004 again.

Happy Trading...