Citi traded well today, but it was on low volume, at least for Citi... our Jan 13 4.50 calls have still held well even with the pullback, only once breaking even where we added to our position... We are still bullish and even if they can't resinstate their dividend until 12 they should still push further north and once the $5 price is broke and holds institutions will be buying...
Happy Trading...
Monday, December 27, 2010
After holiday interest in two drink companies...
Today was a shopping day, cleared the 10" of snow off the car window loaded up the family and went shopping...
Went to a Bed bath and Beyond (BBB) and first thing you notice when you walk in is all the Coffee Pods for sale, some of these were upwards of $80 bucks a box. Good thing is they are still Green Mountain Coffee Roaster (GMCR) products... Right next to these was a demonstration of the Israeli Company Sodastream's (SODA) product. This is the product that will make almost any kind of soda you would want, of course you must buy the flavor packet and carbonation products. For those of you involved with Sharkwater you know we have taken an interest in GMCR and were recently trying to get a read on if SODA was going to be on our radar scope after the IPO... Fortunately we played both well, the question is now that they are both priced about the same what, if any, is the trade here.
I still like GMCR, it had some competition news and a class action law suit regarding its accounting issues that pulled it back the day we picked it up. We are currently out of GMCR and looking to see what the best move is. Being bullish on the equity we see the ATM calls a good place to start, there is some volitility with them so they are priced a little high. There is some interest in the $40 calls over the next several months, but no insight into if they are probable sells or buys. Not much in the put section. Another trade would be a covered call since there is some added volitility, the Jan 11 35$ would return approx 20% plus the ~2/share.
I am not to impressed with SODA yet, the convenience of the pod is evident and useful on a daily basis even with the premium you pay for your single serve pod. I first saw these when travelling on business several years ago now there everywhere. This is in contrast to buying a case of your favorite soda and sticking it in the fridge or going to the soda machine or break room and paying for one when you want vice having to have the coffee every morning... I would only stick to the options if you are looking to play this. We are going to keep watching this one to see how well it performs in the U.S. as it is just breaking into the market here and we need to find out how well it is doing in Europe.
Happy trading...
Went to a Bed bath and Beyond (BBB) and first thing you notice when you walk in is all the Coffee Pods for sale, some of these were upwards of $80 bucks a box. Good thing is they are still Green Mountain Coffee Roaster (GMCR) products... Right next to these was a demonstration of the Israeli Company Sodastream's (SODA) product. This is the product that will make almost any kind of soda you would want, of course you must buy the flavor packet and carbonation products. For those of you involved with Sharkwater you know we have taken an interest in GMCR and were recently trying to get a read on if SODA was going to be on our radar scope after the IPO... Fortunately we played both well, the question is now that they are both priced about the same what, if any, is the trade here.
I still like GMCR, it had some competition news and a class action law suit regarding its accounting issues that pulled it back the day we picked it up. We are currently out of GMCR and looking to see what the best move is. Being bullish on the equity we see the ATM calls a good place to start, there is some volitility with them so they are priced a little high. There is some interest in the $40 calls over the next several months, but no insight into if they are probable sells or buys. Not much in the put section. Another trade would be a covered call since there is some added volitility, the Jan 11 35$ would return approx 20% plus the ~2/share.
I am not to impressed with SODA yet, the convenience of the pod is evident and useful on a daily basis even with the premium you pay for your single serve pod. I first saw these when travelling on business several years ago now there everywhere. This is in contrast to buying a case of your favorite soda and sticking it in the fridge or going to the soda machine or break room and paying for one when you want vice having to have the coffee every morning... I would only stick to the options if you are looking to play this. We are going to keep watching this one to see how well it performs in the U.S. as it is just breaking into the market here and we need to find out how well it is doing in Europe.
Happy trading...
Saturday, December 25, 2010
SQNM Breaks 7.50
Update: Sequenom is now ITM. We have the $7.50 Jan calls. Picked them up early so recommend holding longer and either exercising if over 8.50 or letting the intrinsic value make you profitable...
Happy Trading
Happy Trading
Merry Christmas!
It is snowing here on the east coast, of course the weather models were on both sides of the extreme, either not much or much. Looks like we are coming in right in the middle with 5-10 inches forecast...
So I'm sorry I missed out on XOMA this past week, I was informed when it was still in the high-3s but that was after a 60% run-up and no real news... XOMA is another biotech, not optionable so I didn't have a chance nor make the time to look into this one. It is looking at the EU for an orphan status on a diabetic drug and had good phase 1 results, this wasn't recent so either people are trying to own before this happens, especially given the ITMN EU success. Don't know anything about this, valuation, market potential etc... it is wav overbought on the technicals but recommend taking a closer look for yourselves!
As we close out this year if your trading has beens successful please consider an end-of-year donation to a charity of your choice... I recomment St Judes Hospital or Compassion International but anyone will do.
Back to desert... Merry Christmas!
Happy Trading...
So I'm sorry I missed out on XOMA this past week, I was informed when it was still in the high-3s but that was after a 60% run-up and no real news... XOMA is another biotech, not optionable so I didn't have a chance nor make the time to look into this one. It is looking at the EU for an orphan status on a diabetic drug and had good phase 1 results, this wasn't recent so either people are trying to own before this happens, especially given the ITMN EU success. Don't know anything about this, valuation, market potential etc... it is wav overbought on the technicals but recommend taking a closer look for yourselves!
As we close out this year if your trading has beens successful please consider an end-of-year donation to a charity of your choice... I recomment St Judes Hospital or Compassion International but anyone will do.
Back to desert... Merry Christmas!
Happy Trading...
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Entropic (ENTR) < 10
Long ENTR if it pulls back under $10, buy half now and wait for further pullback or confirmed up-trend.
Current 50-day MA ~ 9 (it has its 50-day pretty well) 200-day MA ~ 7.
Entropic makes the chips that support the record in one room watch in another technology in DVR's today. If the trend in technology is to put everything into HD TVs and Blu-ray players 2011 could see the chips in many more devices...
This is a long play (so an investment) and may turn into a covered call type of trade next year.
Happy trading...
Current 50-day MA ~ 9 (it has its 50-day pretty well) 200-day MA ~ 7.
Entropic makes the chips that support the record in one room watch in another technology in DVR's today. If the trend in technology is to put everything into HD TVs and Blu-ray players 2011 could see the chips in many more devices...
This is a long play (so an investment) and may turn into a covered call type of trade next year.
Happy trading...
Friday, December 17, 2010
ITMN Update!!!!!!!!!!
How about them profits!!!! Sorry, the call spread limited our profits, but it was much safer playing a biotech! So, those of you that were greedy and just bought calls outright!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Christmas is coming...
And how about these if you were in the know that the decision was coming this early!
Happy Trading!
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Back in with Citi (C)
Picked up another 20 jan 13 4.50 calls today after the pullback to last weeks purchase point. Here is the daily chart, the harimi cross was text-book right before the last 2-day pullback (Not a selloff given the volume was light). With the tax-cuts moving through today that should help bouy the market into the end of the year and if the Jan effect holds true in 2011 a push through $5 should be in the mix. Given the higher highs and lower lows since Sept the trend is still looking good.
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Friday, December 10, 2010
April 2011 Bull Call Spread on Intermune
For those in last year on our huge intermune hit, here is a low-risk way to play the next announcement, although you limit reward.
Buy April 20 Calls $ 4.25, sell April 25 Calls at 3.25 for $100 to open per contract. Risk 100 Reward 400per contract if Intermune above 25 April 16.
Expect European results of pirefedone early 2011.
Happy Trading...
Buy April 20 Calls $ 4.25, sell April 25 Calls at 3.25 for $100 to open per contract. Risk 100 Reward 400per contract if Intermune above 25 April 16.
Expect European results of pirefedone early 2011.
Happy Trading...
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
C and SOLR breakouts
Today we continued to pick up Jan 13 4.5 Calls on C. These are both for investment and for trades as C approaches the 5$ mark. Five is the key to intsitutional buying and most fund managers aren't holding when compared to its financial competitors. Now that the US does not ow them a reverse stock-split would do the trick along with the continued rise on huge volume.
GT Solar is up over 60% since we mentioned in an earlier post, here is the daily chart since we mentioned, we picked on the lowest candle stick...
GT Solar is up over 60% since we mentioned in an earlier post, here is the daily chart since we mentioned, we picked on the lowest candle stick...
It is approaching an overbought territory and we would pick up on any broad-market sell-off with a 6.75 stop.
Happy trading...
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
SODA Update
So, looks like a good call avoiding jumping in on SODA. It is down 20% today after reporting its third-quarter net income and revenue increased 52%. Shares slid as margins edged down to 56.3% from 56.9% and in the wake of a huge run-up following its initial public offering, which priced at $20 a share. SODA has been in an overbought condition since the run up began...
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Friday, November 26, 2010
Ford (F)
Ford's 16 Mar 2011 Calls were undervalued slightly this morning going for a low of 1.27. We were picking them up 1t 1.31 to close at 1.49 this afternoon on 360 transactions and F closing at 16.10 aftermarket.
F was expected to pullback based on its valution compared to GM at their IPO, 18 was the resistance we were looking for to start buying PUTS but it never hit that before the pullback, today provide a great buying opportunity. Still room for profit even at 1.50 given the stock only needs to be at 17.50 to be break even and we still have time and volitility on our side to generate some quick returns... Looking to dump at 2-2.10...
Happy trading...
F was expected to pullback based on its valution compared to GM at their IPO, 18 was the resistance we were looking for to start buying PUTS but it never hit that before the pullback, today provide a great buying opportunity. Still room for profit even at 1.50 given the stock only needs to be at 17.50 to be break even and we still have time and volitility on our side to generate some quick returns... Looking to dump at 2-2.10...
Happy trading...
Thursday, November 25, 2010
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2.95 flat fee for stocks
Happy Trading and savings on commisssion...
100 Contracts less than 30 bucks, Barron Rated! 8.95 + .15/contract for standard trading.
2.95 flat fee for stocks
Happy Trading and savings on commisssion...
Turkey Options! (TSN)
Tyson Foods is rated 5-stars by S&P (reiterated strong buy) and a buy by Ford Equity and Jaywalk, The Street and Credit Suise both have hold ratings... All ratings are within the past week. TSN is currently trading 16.35 and is 6% shorted. They pay a dividend of .04 on 29 November, are 85% held by institutions and have traded down to 11 and up to 20 in the past 52-weeks. It is currently at its 50-day moving average and well above its 200-day. All indicators are showing positive movements for this stock... So what's the trade. Since we are very bullish on TSN we could just sell PUTS and accept the potential risk, buy some April 17 calls with 140-days to expiration or buy the stock outright and cover on the way-up. I think this is a simple one and buying the 17-calls for 1.05-1.10 is solid with minimal risk. The premium isn't that high and volitility is around 33%. This means there probably won't be quick doubles but given the time we could see a double based on the underlying rising above 18 by April and then close the calls. Depending on world events it may be worth putting a limit to buy the calls around .90 - 1.00 and catching any fall in the market over the next week.
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
SODA and an IPO Update
Trying to understand why SODA has jumped over the past several trading sessions this list popped up and I thought I would share...
SODA makes the device that carbonates tap water allowing you to make your own soda (or pop) in a multitude of flavors. This may be the next Green Mountain and provide tremendous returns. I have been watching it jump almost 10 points since I was discussing it with the trading group. My only issue is the low volume and lack of readily available substantial news to support the run. We may look at picking up some puts if we can't find any news that has driven the recent price up...
Company Symbol Percent Current Offer Date
SodaStream Intl ltd SODA 111% $42.28 $20.00 2-Nov-10
MakeMyTrip Ltd MMYT 106% $28.82 $14.00 8-Aug-10
Vera Bradley Inc. VRA 90% $30.46 $16.00 21-Oct-10
IntraLinks Holdings Inc. IL 53% $19.88 $13.00 6-Aug-10
Fresh Market Inc. TFM 49% $32.76 $22.00 4-Nov-10
Daqo New Energy Corp. DQ 26% $12.00 $9.50 7-Oct-10
Amyris Biotechnologies AMRS 26% $20.14 $16.00 28-Aug-10
Ambow Education Hold AMBO 22% $12.18 $10.00 5-Aug-10
MediaMind Technologies MDMD 21% $13.30 $11.00 8-Aug-10
SeaCube Container Leasing BOX 21% $12.07 $10.00 27-Oct-10
KEYW Holding KEYW 18% $11.79 $10.00 30-Sep-10
Rhino Resources RNO 18% $24.11 $20.50 29-Sep-10
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding BAH 18% $19.99 $17.00 16-Nov-10
SciQuest Inc. SQI 15% $12.85 $9.50 23-Aug-10
RealPage Inc. RP 15% $27.12 $11.00 8-Aug-10
Tower International Inc. TOWR 14% $14.88 $13.00 14-Oct-10
LPL Investments Holding LPLA 9% $32.60 $30.00 17-Nov-10
Aeroflex Holdings Corp. ARX 7% $14.51 $13.50 18-Nov-10
Regeneron Pharmaceutical REGN 4% $29.22 $28.00 8-Oct-10
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals AEGR 4% $9.84 $9.50 22-Oct-10
General Motors Co. GM 1% $33.47 $33.00 17-Nov-10
Campus Crest Communities CCG 0% $12.55 $12.50 13-Oct-10
Ellingtion Financial EFC 0% $22.56 $22.50 7-Oct-10
Primo Water Corp. PRMW 0% $12.02 $12.00 4-Nov-10
Body Central Corp. BODY 0% $13.01 $13.00 14-Oct-10
Cazador Acquisition CAZAU 0% $10.00 $10.00 7-Oct-10
Zogenix Inc. ZGNX -4% $3.85 $4.00 22-Nov-10
Costamare Inc. CMRE -6% $11.24 $12.00 3-Nov-10
Horizon Technology Finance HRZN -8% $14.75 $16.00 28-Oct-10
NXP Semiconductors N.V. NXPI -10% $12.66 $14.00 5-Aug-10
Genomics GNOM -11% $7.97 $9.00 11-Nov-10
Pacific Bioscience of Calif. PACB -26% $11.82 $16.00 26-Oct-10
Trius Therapeutics Inc. TSRX -30% $3.50 $5.00 4-Aug-10
NuPathe Inc. PATH -45% $5.48 $10.00 6-Aug-10
Happy Trading...
SODA makes the device that carbonates tap water allowing you to make your own soda (or pop) in a multitude of flavors. This may be the next Green Mountain and provide tremendous returns. I have been watching it jump almost 10 points since I was discussing it with the trading group. My only issue is the low volume and lack of readily available substantial news to support the run. We may look at picking up some puts if we can't find any news that has driven the recent price up...
Company Symbol Percent Current Offer Date
SodaStream Intl ltd SODA 111% $42.28 $20.00 2-Nov-10
MakeMyTrip Ltd MMYT 106% $28.82 $14.00 8-Aug-10
Vera Bradley Inc. VRA 90% $30.46 $16.00 21-Oct-10
IntraLinks Holdings Inc. IL 53% $19.88 $13.00 6-Aug-10
Fresh Market Inc. TFM 49% $32.76 $22.00 4-Nov-10
Daqo New Energy Corp. DQ 26% $12.00 $9.50 7-Oct-10
Amyris Biotechnologies AMRS 26% $20.14 $16.00 28-Aug-10
Ambow Education Hold AMBO 22% $12.18 $10.00 5-Aug-10
MediaMind Technologies MDMD 21% $13.30 $11.00 8-Aug-10
SeaCube Container Leasing BOX 21% $12.07 $10.00 27-Oct-10
KEYW Holding KEYW 18% $11.79 $10.00 30-Sep-10
Rhino Resources RNO 18% $24.11 $20.50 29-Sep-10
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding BAH 18% $19.99 $17.00 16-Nov-10
SciQuest Inc. SQI 15% $12.85 $9.50 23-Aug-10
RealPage Inc. RP 15% $27.12 $11.00 8-Aug-10
Tower International Inc. TOWR 14% $14.88 $13.00 14-Oct-10
LPL Investments Holding LPLA 9% $32.60 $30.00 17-Nov-10
Aeroflex Holdings Corp. ARX 7% $14.51 $13.50 18-Nov-10
Regeneron Pharmaceutical REGN 4% $29.22 $28.00 8-Oct-10
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals AEGR 4% $9.84 $9.50 22-Oct-10
General Motors Co. GM 1% $33.47 $33.00 17-Nov-10
Campus Crest Communities CCG 0% $12.55 $12.50 13-Oct-10
Ellingtion Financial EFC 0% $22.56 $22.50 7-Oct-10
Primo Water Corp. PRMW 0% $12.02 $12.00 4-Nov-10
Body Central Corp. BODY 0% $13.01 $13.00 14-Oct-10
Cazador Acquisition CAZAU 0% $10.00 $10.00 7-Oct-10
Zogenix Inc. ZGNX -4% $3.85 $4.00 22-Nov-10
Costamare Inc. CMRE -6% $11.24 $12.00 3-Nov-10
Horizon Technology Finance HRZN -8% $14.75 $16.00 28-Oct-10
NXP Semiconductors N.V. NXPI -10% $12.66 $14.00 5-Aug-10
Genomics GNOM -11% $7.97 $9.00 11-Nov-10
Pacific Bioscience of Calif. PACB -26% $11.82 $16.00 26-Oct-10
Trius Therapeutics Inc. TSRX -30% $3.50 $5.00 4-Aug-10
NuPathe Inc. PATH -45% $5.48 $10.00 6-Aug-10
Happy Trading...
Monday, November 22, 2010
GMCR Monday Update
As expected our Mar 35 Calls jumped... up... over 120% as of Friday's close. I have closed out today as I see some short covering in this rally, after all we are at the top of the 52-week high of 37.97.
GMCR +18%
GMCR Mark 35 Calls +123%
Happy Trading...
GMCR +18%
GMCR Mark 35 Calls +123%
Happy Trading...
Friday, November 19, 2010
Green Mountain News (GMCR)
GMCR is up 11% after resuming trading and restating the past several years earnings. This is why we layered into them. Monday our March 11 35 Calls should be decently profitable!
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Friday, November 12, 2010
Green Mountain Update + TNK dividend and Citi to Cisco
So, GMCR has been taking a hit over the last 3-days with earnings due out by the 22nd. The lack of a decision on report date is making investors nervous but a strong showing in puts traded today may indicate a bullish bet or at least some support at the 27 dollar level last touched. Also, it appears some competition may be coming from alternative pod makers getting into retail spaces and the shortage of coffee beans raising the raw coffee price up.
This is why we use options instead of the equity.
TNK earnings today of .31 cents lower than the last two quarters but we are still in well above a 10% yield.
I sold out of my Citi (C) holdings at 4.50 this week, good top and placed that into CSCO near the bottom. Will look at covering this next quarter.
Happy Trading...
This is why we use options instead of the equity.
TNK earnings today of .31 cents lower than the last two quarters but we are still in well above a 10% yield.
I sold out of my Citi (C) holdings at 4.50 this week, good top and placed that into CSCO near the bottom. Will look at covering this next quarter.
Happy Trading...
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Green Mountain Showing More Support (GMCR)
You may have read our last post on GMCR where we were trading options in the high 20's. Since then GMCR has touched backed to 35 and has since pulled backto the 31 range showing strong support on a day like today where the DOW is down 100 points. GMCR gapped down and dropped only to show support quickly and pull back up.
GMCR recenlty has been upgraded with a target price of $40 and S&P raised it to neutral. The news that dropped it hard has subsided and shouldn't have any impact ont the business.
We are layering into March 2011 $35 calls 5 at a time. They touched 2.75 this morning and the interest in actually purchasing the options is low so you have to have your plan in place with buying and selling prices in place.
Happy Trading...
We are layering into March 2011 $35 calls 5 at a time. They touched 2.75 this morning and the interest in actually purchasing the options is low so you have to have your plan in place with buying and selling prices in place.
Happy Trading...
Cord Blood News Trend (CBAI)
I don't like discussing penny stocks because they are, for the most part, gambling. However, we have been successful trading a few in the past. The only one that I will metion here since it has had a very consistent news announcemnet trend is Cord Blood America, CBAI.OB. We recently picked this up at .0039 after watching it bottom-out after it's last pop on news. News came out a couple of days ago about some health care insurance partnerships that led to the rapid increase on large (relative) volume. We got out at .0065 for a 62% profit. It topped out a little higher at the end of the day but as the chart shows we got out as close to the high as you could without a time-machine.
I truly like this company and what the CEO is doing. I believe at some point in the future this will be a viable investment and those that hold shares and forget about them will see a nice return. Cord Blood Storage, while not an insurance policy given the statistics of actually ever using it, is inexpensive enough and the science is still in its infancy that one-day this may help people overcome some of the most serious diseases we battle today. A few more strategic moves to beef up the balance sheet with some profit and a reverse-split to raise the stock price to gain some attention and CBAI will be set to soar.
I will be back in when it pulls back below .004 again.
Happy Trading...
Monday, October 4, 2010
Citigroup Buy Announcement
Delta have called a Buy on Citigroup shares after noting a MACD and Triple Moving Average Crossover.
The team suggests Citigroup Inc shares are bought at 410, with a stop loss being set at 375 and an initial target of 477 being set.
Content provided by: http://www.dofonline.co.uk/content/view/4902/152/
Friday, October 1, 2010
Green Mountain (GMCR)
I closed yesterday's GMCR options out for 12% return and open up the Jan 31.63 late this morning and closed just at the close of the market today.
C finally got the news from the Govt and popped .17 taking the Jany 11 4 Calls up by .10 today! This is what I have been waiting for. Now it is hard not to take profits early so I am still waiting with a .60 sell limit...
GMCR news update was that the audit by Pricewaterhouse was released after the company closed out the books for earnings, so what is the problem? Either PWH has an audit issue or there may be no issue at all. If you still like the business model this might be an excellent covered call set-up! Buy at todays prices and sell the out-months just out of the money calls....
Happy trading...
C finally got the news from the Govt and popped .17 taking the Jany 11 4 Calls up by .10 today! This is what I have been waiting for. Now it is hard not to take profits early so I am still waiting with a .60 sell limit...
GMCR news update was that the audit by Pricewaterhouse was released after the company closed out the books for earnings, so what is the problem? Either PWH has an audit issue or there may be no issue at all. If you still like the business model this might be an excellent covered call set-up! Buy at todays prices and sell the out-months just out of the money calls....
Happy trading...
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
What we have been up to..
Sorry for being dormant for so long, been travelling way too much to keep posts up. Probably need to get with new technology and download the mobile client to update while I am on the road.
So, almost all of the calls we have made over the last year have been extremely profitable if you had invested in the equities outright! So what does that mean, playing the options have proven a bit difficult, partly because of greed and trying to quick-turn profits by buying front-month calls verses sticking to the plan and buying several months out. Case in point, we held the AAPL 250's, 260's and 270's over the past several months. Unfortunately most were bought a month or two out and we got caught in the antenna debacle, but rolling some forward we were able to stay in the black but not before wiping out most of the profit for the first half. So lesson learned is lesson one, have a plan and stick to the plan.
So what to do now. I picked up Green Mountain Coffee Roaster (GCMR) 33.33 calls for January 11 this morning and already making money. They had a 17% pullback on the SEC inquiry news but were on fire before that. I was watching on the sidelines as this took off, so for me this is an op to get in on a missed opportunity. The results of the accusation result in about .03 share issue so I believe the business is still sound and that the pullback is on fear rather than fact. Buy when everyone is afraid and sell when they are happy...
I have also been buying C Jan 11 4 calls, although I recommend to others to pick up Jan 12 4 calls since there is significant time value and the support around 3.90 has been tremendous. Earnings are reporting on 19 october so we'll see what's up soon.
Also, been slowing picking up Teekay (TNK) tankers, love the dividend, this is part of my retirement plan. Recommend researching them and buying on pullbacks. The have resistance at 13+ so anything below 13 or even 12 is a great buying op.
Until next time, happy trading...
So, almost all of the calls we have made over the last year have been extremely profitable if you had invested in the equities outright! So what does that mean, playing the options have proven a bit difficult, partly because of greed and trying to quick-turn profits by buying front-month calls verses sticking to the plan and buying several months out. Case in point, we held the AAPL 250's, 260's and 270's over the past several months. Unfortunately most were bought a month or two out and we got caught in the antenna debacle, but rolling some forward we were able to stay in the black but not before wiping out most of the profit for the first half. So lesson learned is lesson one, have a plan and stick to the plan.
So what to do now. I picked up Green Mountain Coffee Roaster (GCMR) 33.33 calls for January 11 this morning and already making money. They had a 17% pullback on the SEC inquiry news but were on fire before that. I was watching on the sidelines as this took off, so for me this is an op to get in on a missed opportunity. The results of the accusation result in about .03 share issue so I believe the business is still sound and that the pullback is on fear rather than fact. Buy when everyone is afraid and sell when they are happy...
I have also been buying C Jan 11 4 calls, although I recommend to others to pick up Jan 12 4 calls since there is significant time value and the support around 3.90 has been tremendous. Earnings are reporting on 19 october so we'll see what's up soon.
Also, been slowing picking up Teekay (TNK) tankers, love the dividend, this is part of my retirement plan. Recommend researching them and buying on pullbacks. The have resistance at 13+ so anything below 13 or even 12 is a great buying op.
Until next time, happy trading...
Sunday, July 11, 2010
Friday, July 9, 2010
It's Friday
Apple was up on low volume, looks like we are getting into the pre-earnings ramp-up. Should be an interesting week next week. AAPL reports on 20 July. The Aug 250's are almost $20, looking to exit north of $30. Looking for Apple to break above 270 after earnings report.
C broke and stayed above $4 today, let's keep it going. Jan 11 4 Calls are going to make for a good Christmas.
TNK announced another dividend. This time .37 per share, gotta love it. At these prices TNK is one of the highest yielding dividends out there and they just got upgraded!
AEO guided lower on guidance but broke $12 today, keeping the 12.50 calls for August, let's see if expectations are too low and they beat earnings.
DIA 103 July Puts are below $2 again, not a bad ride, up 300% since initial buy recommend and back down, bought, then sold and it would have been a good month.
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
C broke and stayed above $4 today, let's keep it going. Jan 11 4 Calls are going to make for a good Christmas.
TNK announced another dividend. This time .37 per share, gotta love it. At these prices TNK is one of the highest yielding dividends out there and they just got upgraded!
AEO guided lower on guidance but broke $12 today, keeping the 12.50 calls for August, let's see if expectations are too low and they beat earnings.
DIA 103 July Puts are below $2 again, not a bad ride, up 300% since initial buy recommend and back down, bought, then sold and it would have been a good month.
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Sunday, July 4, 2010
Dry Bulk Shipping Info
Rental income from shipping Saudi Arabian crude oil to Japan, the industry's benchmark trade voyage for supertankers, fell below the level Frontline Ltd., the largest operator of the ships, needs to break even on them.
Returns from the route fell 8.4 percent to US$29,953 a day. That's the first time since May 14 that income has dropped below the US$31,100 a day that Hamilton, Bermuda-based Frontline Ltd. said May 21 it requires to make a profit on the carriers.
From Taiwane News:
Frontline, one of my favorite dividend producer's is below 30 right now, this news may be already have been known and driving to the current decline, otherwise expect FRO to drop more...
"Rates are falling by the fixture and nobody knows when owners will hit the brakes," Per Mansson, managing director of shipbroker Nor Ocean Stockholm AB, said in an e-mailed note today. "We will soon get to levels where some owners have no interest in fixing and that means less offers for charterers requirements and hence a new floor will be set."
Income from the Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route has slumped 59 percent in the past 10 sessions, according to the exchange.
Returns from the route fell 8.4 percent to US$29,953 a day. That's the first time since May 14 that income has dropped below the US$31,100 a day that Hamilton, Bermuda-based Frontline Ltd. said May 21 it requires to make a profit on the carriers.
From Taiwane News:
Frontline, one of my favorite dividend producer's is below 30 right now, this news may be already have been known and driving to the current decline, otherwise expect FRO to drop more...
"Rates are falling by the fixture and nobody knows when owners will hit the brakes," Per Mansson, managing director of shipbroker Nor Ocean Stockholm AB, said in an e-mailed note today. "We will soon get to levels where some owners have no interest in fixing and that means less offers for charterers requirements and hence a new floor will be set."
Income from the Saudi Arabia-to-Japan route has slumped 59 percent in the past 10 sessions, according to the exchange.
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Northgate Mining
I like mining companies. Before I started this blog I use to trade Hecla Mining Corp in the "penny-stock" days to see it above $4 now and over $7 in the past year...
Here is another one that mines gold with a good prospect for future developments...
Northgate Minerals (NYSE: NXG) $2.95. Today announced that it has received notice from the Ontario Ministry of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry ("MNDMF") of acceptance of the Closure Plan for the Young-Davidson Mining Project. Acceptance of the Closure Plan allows Northgate to commence construction and development of the Young-Davidson mine, which is forecast to produce an average of 180,000 ounces of gold per year at a cash cost of $350 per ounce over a 15-year mine life starting in 2012.
Happy Trading...
Here is another one that mines gold with a good prospect for future developments...
Northgate Minerals (NYSE: NXG) $2.95. Today announced that it has received notice from the Ontario Ministry of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry ("MNDMF") of acceptance of the Closure Plan for the Young-Davidson Mining Project. Acceptance of the Closure Plan allows Northgate to commence construction and development of the Young-Davidson mine, which is forecast to produce an average of 180,000 ounces of gold per year at a cash cost of $350 per ounce over a 15-year mine life starting in 2012.
Happy Trading...
Friday, July 2, 2010
Talk about a Death Cross
Today FAS crossed FAZ, The bear's are now in control at least with respect to the russel 2000. This isn't the death cross that the analysts are seeing with the 50 and 200 day moving average and the S&P is still holding above 1020... for now...
The CBOE is experimenting with weekly options for 4 stocks, one of them is Apple. So if you are really looking to gamble in this market they have options that expire each week now...
Update on AAPL after the torturous last few days... Rolling options is a strategy to make up or prevent losses by buying time. I rolled my July 260's forward to Aug 250's at the low Thursday. Makes a difference when you can actually look at the market during the day. They were almost immediately profitable and up well in the afternoon. AAPL has a class action law suit heading its way on the antenna issue, although Apple announced it is a software issue and will correct and send out an update for the signal strenght algorithm and the singal strength graphic. Apple has not seen a slow down in sales from this issue--so no impact to earnings...
With the roll-forward I also picked up Jan 11 Citi 4 Calls on the pullback and the Govt selling theirs at an avg 4.01.
Tesla was a good short play, an IPO on a company that isn't expected to make any money for a couple of years and jumps almost a hundred percent isn't likely to stay that high...
Although Apple is still getting beat up with the market under pressure each day, it holds a good base and trends the market well.
We have had a good run on AAPL recently but the volatility has changed so if you are going to stay as a trader you need to watch it, recommend some type of spread to limit losses.
Happy trading...
The CBOE is experimenting with weekly options for 4 stocks, one of them is Apple. So if you are really looking to gamble in this market they have options that expire each week now...
Update on AAPL after the torturous last few days... Rolling options is a strategy to make up or prevent losses by buying time. I rolled my July 260's forward to Aug 250's at the low Thursday. Makes a difference when you can actually look at the market during the day. They were almost immediately profitable and up well in the afternoon. AAPL has a class action law suit heading its way on the antenna issue, although Apple announced it is a software issue and will correct and send out an update for the signal strenght algorithm and the singal strength graphic. Apple has not seen a slow down in sales from this issue--so no impact to earnings...
With the roll-forward I also picked up Jan 11 Citi 4 Calls on the pullback and the Govt selling theirs at an avg 4.01.
Tesla was a good short play, an IPO on a company that isn't expected to make any money for a couple of years and jumps almost a hundred percent isn't likely to stay that high...
Although Apple is still getting beat up with the market under pressure each day, it holds a good base and trends the market well.
We have had a good run on AAPL recently but the volatility has changed so if you are going to stay as a trader you need to watch it, recommend some type of spread to limit losses.
Happy trading...
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Shark Sense is Back--for today
Finally I spotted the trend, got in, got out and made money. Almost twice, .05 off in the afternoon at the same trade.
Picked up the July 270 calls when AAPL dropped below 269 and sold when it went above 271.50. Good pullback in the afternoon but my blackberry is a little slower than being on-line.
Will set up some trade-triggers for the same trade tomorrow, pick up at the money calls when it drops below and immediately place a sell at my price point.
Happy Trading...
Picked up the July 270 calls when AAPL dropped below 269 and sold when it went above 271.50. Good pullback in the afternoon but my blackberry is a little slower than being on-line.
Will set up some trade-triggers for the same trade tomorrow, pick up at the money calls when it drops below and immediately place a sell at my price point.
Happy Trading...
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Help, I'm stuck
I have had a great first half of the year and now am stuck in a range. Fortunately not losing money, but breaking even or fluctuating plus/minus a few hundred bucks. Example I closed the DIA Puts yesterday only to have them in the money today. I am long a few things which continues my break even pattern. After trading APPLE twice in the last few weeks and although, profitable, 800% less than what was possible if I stuck to my own advice and plan.
So, what to do. Stay in cash until I can get some time to PLAN the next trades.
Some interesting Options action. The market makers have opened up APPLE August options. Tried to get the 270 calls today but had to low of a buy target. I like August since all we had were July and October and APPLE reports earnings a week after expiration Friday. August is a good way to play.
My PLAN for APPLE start buying contracts one a time over the next couple of weeks, target of 20 total and double/triple down on a significant pull-back. This is how I set-up my initial two trades except 10 contracts at a time. I had 260 July's at 8.75 and 7.55 respectively each time. Great set-ups if I held them till today. So trend is still holding just higher on the equity and with all the news on IPads sold, IPhones etc... and iminent earnings report I don't see room for a deep pullback. Given up over 3$ on a 140 point down day.
Citi is progressing, slowlllllllly, but progressing so hanging on to the Jan 4 Calls for at least a dollar return on premium. Limit order set and not changing it.
Happy Trading...
So, what to do. Stay in cash until I can get some time to PLAN the next trades.
Some interesting Options action. The market makers have opened up APPLE August options. Tried to get the 270 calls today but had to low of a buy target. I like August since all we had were July and October and APPLE reports earnings a week after expiration Friday. August is a good way to play.
My PLAN for APPLE start buying contracts one a time over the next couple of weeks, target of 20 total and double/triple down on a significant pull-back. This is how I set-up my initial two trades except 10 contracts at a time. I had 260 July's at 8.75 and 7.55 respectively each time. Great set-ups if I held them till today. So trend is still holding just higher on the equity and with all the news on IPads sold, IPhones etc... and iminent earnings report I don't see room for a deep pullback. Given up over 3$ on a 140 point down day.
Citi is progressing, slowlllllllly, but progressing so hanging on to the Jan 4 Calls for at least a dollar return on premium. Limit order set and not changing it.
Happy Trading...
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Don't Play the Indexes
With great news out of China regarding the Yuan and bond sales doing well and technicals showing support the market is set to rise huge Monday.
I picked up some 103 PUTS on the Diamonds for Jul probably not the best move. I will keep since their still isn't much in the way of underlying performance that has changed and the momentum is based on technicals and traders. All it takes is one bad news headline.
AAPL has been providing huge movements in the options world, ex. 80k versus 6k trading the premiums verses the stock itself. I was thinking the quick rise last week was based on expiration Friday and perhaps some short covering. Maybe not.
I will be looking to layer into October 280/290 Calls over the next few weeks as we get closer to earnings. I had 20 Contracts of July 260's twice now, once at 8.75 and then again at 7.55 cost basis'. I sold both as a day trade instead of holding as a swing trade as I have been telling everyone else. Results 40k in unrealized profits over 2 weeks. So if you were listening to me and not selling out early you are doing better than me ;-)...
AEO is in the money. Citi 4 LEAPS are at the money.
Apple seems to be it, IPad, Iphone, And now the Mini Mac will all add up to beat expectations and with all the hype most likely continue the radical rise we have had lately.
First Solar met its trend around the 100 mark jumped up by 20%, covered for quick profits.
Happy Trading...
I picked up some 103 PUTS on the Diamonds for Jul probably not the best move. I will keep since their still isn't much in the way of underlying performance that has changed and the momentum is based on technicals and traders. All it takes is one bad news headline.
AAPL has been providing huge movements in the options world, ex. 80k versus 6k trading the premiums verses the stock itself. I was thinking the quick rise last week was based on expiration Friday and perhaps some short covering. Maybe not.
I will be looking to layer into October 280/290 Calls over the next few weeks as we get closer to earnings. I had 20 Contracts of July 260's twice now, once at 8.75 and then again at 7.55 cost basis'. I sold both as a day trade instead of holding as a swing trade as I have been telling everyone else. Results 40k in unrealized profits over 2 weeks. So if you were listening to me and not selling out early you are doing better than me ;-)...
AEO is in the money. Citi 4 LEAPS are at the money.
Apple seems to be it, IPad, Iphone, And now the Mini Mac will all add up to beat expectations and with all the hype most likely continue the radical rise we have had lately.
First Solar met its trend around the 100 mark jumped up by 20%, covered for quick profits.
Happy Trading...
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Yet another weekend update
The AAPL trend has continued to supply profits... I have yet to stay in long enough to achieve maximum profits but that would only work if I sat and watched strategy desk and CNBC all day. Being conservative has continued to supply a steady profit stream lately. Buying the Jul 260 Calls around equity support in the mid 240's and selling within a buck of purchased premium price. I will now look at using the 11 LEAPS to ensure time is on our side as I have noticed that the time value drops considerably which almost got me in trouble when first starting these trades. AAPL Targets still above 300. New Iphone goes on sale in a couple of weeks, the news trend has been working as well, although different this time around since AAPL usually gets sold off after news.
American Eagle Outfitters, bought 12.50 August Calls after they guided lower and dropped to that level. They received an Upgrade yesterday and target of 18 which jumped AEO to over 13. Holding this one into earnings and will probably bail just before they report.
Picked up another 100 contracts of January 11 4 Calls of Citi. Also, bought my daughter some of Citi outright for her long-term holdings. Will start looking at Jan 12's as well as a long term holding.
Natural Gas has been slowing creeping up, still looking at UNG.
Congress took the opportunity to get some insight from Warren Buffet on what the next crisis may be and he as well as many other analysts noted the municipal bond holdings will be the next to fail. This makes sense if you have read any of the Credit Default Stories out there. So looking for some ETF's that hold muni's and looking into what banks and inurers may be affected. To SHORT.
Out next week...
Happy Trading...
American Eagle Outfitters, bought 12.50 August Calls after they guided lower and dropped to that level. They received an Upgrade yesterday and target of 18 which jumped AEO to over 13. Holding this one into earnings and will probably bail just before they report.
Picked up another 100 contracts of January 11 4 Calls of Citi. Also, bought my daughter some of Citi outright for her long-term holdings. Will start looking at Jan 12's as well as a long term holding.
Natural Gas has been slowing creeping up, still looking at UNG.
Congress took the opportunity to get some insight from Warren Buffet on what the next crisis may be and he as well as many other analysts noted the municipal bond holdings will be the next to fail. This makes sense if you have read any of the Credit Default Stories out there. So looking for some ETF's that hold muni's and looking into what banks and inurers may be affected. To SHORT.
Out next week...
Happy Trading...
Monday, May 31, 2010
239B Loss--buying opportunity for us???
The ECB announced another 239B in loan losses over the next 18-months for the EC. Futures dropped on news. What does this mean for us. If the recent trend holds where the entire market is under pressure, it's time to re-load on a few names. Our top buys are AAPL and C for now. I will continue to be a buyer of the 260/270 LEAPS whenever APPLE pulls back to below 250. C 5 LEAPS are the long trade for now...
C still isn't looked at heavily by the institutional investor, and even Cramer says you need to be in before they are. Anyhing under 4 makes the 4/5 Calls attractive...
Looking at Vodaphone VOD as a long trade as well, will be selling puts if I decide to pick the equity up. American Eagle is now breaking above 13 the 12.50 Augusts are making money.
Looking at RIG, lot's of negative pressure on the drilling world so it looks pretty well valued currently. Also, Natural Gas is gaining lot's of "big trader" attention as a long play as well.
Out of town for the week....
Happy trading...
C still isn't looked at heavily by the institutional investor, and even Cramer says you need to be in before they are. Anyhing under 4 makes the 4/5 Calls attractive...
Looking at Vodaphone VOD as a long trade as well, will be selling puts if I decide to pick the equity up. American Eagle is now breaking above 13 the 12.50 Augusts are making money.
Looking at RIG, lot's of negative pressure on the drilling world so it looks pretty well valued currently. Also, Natural Gas is gaining lot's of "big trader" attention as a long play as well.
Out of town for the week....
Happy trading...
Sunday, May 30, 2010
Thursday, May 27, 2010
16 Limit on AAPL Calls
I have lowered my limit to 16 from AAPL. My plan is to get out and then pick up the 12 LEAPS as the IPAD goes on sale internationally tomorrwo and APPLE is ramping up production to meet demand. This along with the Company is no valued greater than Microsoft and has no where to go but up as they are gaining ground everyday. When the IPhone moves to Verizon bottom line numbers should rise significantly.
Targets prices range from 300-400. Wide range so I'll be looking at upper 200 12 Leaps...
Happy Trading...
Targets prices range from 300-400. Wide range so I'll be looking at upper 200 12 Leaps...
Happy Trading...
American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)
Opened August 12.50 Calls today. AEO is near its 52-week low and was overly done on expectations by the analyst. Stock was trading over 19 before earnings and barely missed on certain numbers and analyst revised next quarters earnings. This brought AEO down below 13 where it doens't deserve to be.
Just check out what people are wearing today...
Happy Trading...
Just check out what people are wearing today...
Happy Trading...
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Got a 100k, Put it here...
http://www.canslimpc.com/ CAN SLIM Private Client. Better than a mutual and based on the CAN SLIM analysis method, but it has a minimum of 100k investment! Check out their site, shows where they were inveseted to include cash at the right time!
C = Current quarterly earnings per share.
They should be up a minimum of 25% - 50% over the year earlier. In fact, of the 500 best performing stocks O'Neil studied in the 38 years from 1953 to 1990, three out of four had earnings increases averaging more than 70% in the latest publicly reported quarter before the stocks began their major price advance. The one out of four that didn't show solid quarterly increases did so in the very next quarter, and those increases averaged 90%!
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
A = Annual earnings per share.
There should be meaningful growth over the last five years. The annual compounded growth rate of earnings in the superior firms should be from 25% to 50%, or even more, per year. With all of this emphasis on earnings, it is important to understand something about Price-Earnings Ratios (P/E). Factual analysis of the greatest winning stocks shows that P/E ratios have very little to do with whether a stock should be bought or not! In fact, you will automatically eliminate most of the best investments available if you're not willing to by a stock that trades with a high P/E. Remember earlier when I mentioned Xerox? In 1960 it traded at a 100 P/E - before it went up 3300% from $5 to $170 (adjusting for the stock splits). Genentech was priced at 200 times earnings in November 1985, and it bolted 300% in the next 5 months. Syntex sold for 45 times earnings in 1963, before it advanced 400%. For years analysts have misused P/E ratios, and it's amazing to me how so many people will still ask about a company's P/E before they ask about a company's earnings growth.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
N = New product/management/price high.
Usually it is a new product or service that causes the big earnings acceleration we're looking for. Consider these examples:
• Rexall's new Tupperware division, in 1958, helped the stock go from $16 to $50.
• Thiokol came out with new rocket fuels for missiles back in 1957-1959. The stock blasted from $48 to the equivalent of $355.
• In 1957-1960, Polaroid came out with the "picture in a minute" self-developing camera, the stock went from $65 to $260. Then in 1965-1967 they came out with a color-film version. The stock repeated with an amazing, split adjusted, rise from $23 to $133.
• Syntex, in 1963, began marketing the oral contraceptive pill. In six months the stock soared from $100 to $550.
• Computervision stock advanced 1235% in 1978-1980, with the introduction of Cad-Cam factory automation equipment.
• Price Company went up 15 fold in 1982-1986 while opening their chain of wholesale warehouse membership stores.
Get the point? 95% of the greatest winners in the 38 year study O'Neil conducted were companies that had a major new product or service.
The other important thing to consider is the price of the stock. Most people miss the biggest winners in the market because of what O'Neil refers to as "the great paradox" of the stock market. It is hard to accept, but the stocks that seem too high and risky to the majority usually go higher and what seems low and cheap usually goes lower. If you don't think this is true, I challenge you to look in an old newspaper from a few months ago and observe a good number of stocks highlighted because they hit new highs and new lows. Then see where they are today. Most of the highs will be higher, and the lows will be even lower.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
S = Supply/Demand: Small Cap + Volume
Supply and demand dictates the price of almost everything in your life. The law of supply and demand is more important than all the analyst opinions on Wall Street. The price of a stock with 400 million shares is hard to budge up because of the large supply of stock available. Yet, if a company has only 2 or 3 million shares outstanding, a reasonable amount of buying can push the price up rapidly because of the small available supply. If you are choosing between two stocks to buy, one with 60 million shares outstanding and one with 10 million shares, with all other factors equal, the smaller one will usually be the bigger mover. Stocks that have a large percentage owned by top management are generally better prospects. Again referencing O'Neil's 38 year study, more than 95% of the companies had less than 25 million shares outstanding when they had their greatest period of earnings improvement and stock price performance.
Foolish stock splits can hurt a stock's performance. Watch out for companies that split their stock 2 or 3 times in just a year or two. The splitting creates a larger supply and may make a company's stock performance more lethargic, like many "big cap" companies. Large holders who thinking of selling are often inclined to sell their 100,000 share positions before a 3-for-1 split would have them looking to sell 300,000. Smart short sellers (an infinitesimal group) pick on stocks beginning to falter after enormous price runups and splits, realizing that the potential number of shares for sale (particularly by funds) has dramatically been increased.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
L = Leader
People often buy stocks they're comfortable and familiar with, like an old pair of shoes. Usually these are draggy, slow-pokes rather than leaping leaders. It is really important to look at how your stock is performing in relation to the overall market. The 500 best performing stocks from 1953 to 1990 averaged a relative price strength of 87 (scale of 1-99) just before they began their major advances in price. Avoid laggard stocks and look for genuine leaders.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
I = Institutional Sponsorship
It takes big demand to move a stock significantly higher in price. Institutional buyers are the most powerful source. You don't need a large number of institutional owners, but should have at least a few. No institutional sponsorship in a stock is a bad sign because odds are that many institutional investors looked at the stock and passed it over. The things we are looking for with C-A-N-S-L-I-M are really signs that the bigger money (mutual funds, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) is coming into the stock. See that there is a better-than-average performance record by at least a few of the institutional owners.
Another good thing about some institutional sponsorship is that it provides buying support for the stock. Beware of stocks that become "over owned". By the time performance is so obvious that almost all institutions own it, it is probably too late. Pay attention to whether the number of institutional owners is increasing or decreasing.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
M = Market Direction
You can be right on everything else, but if you are wrong about the direction of the broad market you are still likely to lose money. The best way to analyze the overall market is to follow and understand every day what the general averages are doing. The difficult to recognize, but meaningful changes in the behavior of the market averages at important turning points is the best indicator of the condition of the whole market.
What signs should you look for to detect a market top? On one of the days in the uptrend, the total volume for the market will increase over the preceding day's high volume, but the Dow's closing average will show stalling action, or substantially less upward movement, than on prior days.
The spread between the daily high and low of the market index will likely be a bit larger than on the earlier days. Normal market liquidation near the market peak will only occur on one or two days, which are part of the uptrend. The market comes under distribution while it is advancing! This is one of the reasons so few people know how to recognize distribution (selling).
Immediately following the first selling near the top, a vacuum exists where volume may subside and the market averages will sell off for four days or so. The second, and probably the last early chance to recognize a top reversal is when the market attempts it's first rally, which it will always do after a number of days down from it's highest point. If this first attempt to bounce back follows through on the third, fourth, or fifth rally day either on decreased volume from the day before, or if the market average recovers less than half of the initial drop from it's former peak to the low, the comeback is feeble and sputtering when it should be getting strong. Frequently the first attempt at a rally during the beginning of a downtrend will fail abruptly. Possibly after a one day resurgence, the second day will open up strong, only to sell off toward the end of the day and suddenly close down.
After an advance in stocks for a couple of years, the majority of the original price leaders will top, and you can be fairly sure the overall market is going to get into trouble. It is very important to pay attention to the way the leading stocks are acting.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
C = Current quarterly earnings per share.
They should be up a minimum of 25% - 50% over the year earlier. In fact, of the 500 best performing stocks O'Neil studied in the 38 years from 1953 to 1990, three out of four had earnings increases averaging more than 70% in the latest publicly reported quarter before the stocks began their major price advance. The one out of four that didn't show solid quarterly increases did so in the very next quarter, and those increases averaged 90%!
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
A = Annual earnings per share.
There should be meaningful growth over the last five years. The annual compounded growth rate of earnings in the superior firms should be from 25% to 50%, or even more, per year. With all of this emphasis on earnings, it is important to understand something about Price-Earnings Ratios (P/E). Factual analysis of the greatest winning stocks shows that P/E ratios have very little to do with whether a stock should be bought or not! In fact, you will automatically eliminate most of the best investments available if you're not willing to by a stock that trades with a high P/E. Remember earlier when I mentioned Xerox? In 1960 it traded at a 100 P/E - before it went up 3300% from $5 to $170 (adjusting for the stock splits). Genentech was priced at 200 times earnings in November 1985, and it bolted 300% in the next 5 months. Syntex sold for 45 times earnings in 1963, before it advanced 400%. For years analysts have misused P/E ratios, and it's amazing to me how so many people will still ask about a company's P/E before they ask about a company's earnings growth.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
N = New product/management/price high.
Usually it is a new product or service that causes the big earnings acceleration we're looking for. Consider these examples:
• Rexall's new Tupperware division, in 1958, helped the stock go from $16 to $50.
• Thiokol came out with new rocket fuels for missiles back in 1957-1959. The stock blasted from $48 to the equivalent of $355.
• In 1957-1960, Polaroid came out with the "picture in a minute" self-developing camera, the stock went from $65 to $260. Then in 1965-1967 they came out with a color-film version. The stock repeated with an amazing, split adjusted, rise from $23 to $133.
• Syntex, in 1963, began marketing the oral contraceptive pill. In six months the stock soared from $100 to $550.
• Computervision stock advanced 1235% in 1978-1980, with the introduction of Cad-Cam factory automation equipment.
• Price Company went up 15 fold in 1982-1986 while opening their chain of wholesale warehouse membership stores.
Get the point? 95% of the greatest winners in the 38 year study O'Neil conducted were companies that had a major new product or service.
The other important thing to consider is the price of the stock. Most people miss the biggest winners in the market because of what O'Neil refers to as "the great paradox" of the stock market. It is hard to accept, but the stocks that seem too high and risky to the majority usually go higher and what seems low and cheap usually goes lower. If you don't think this is true, I challenge you to look in an old newspaper from a few months ago and observe a good number of stocks highlighted because they hit new highs and new lows. Then see where they are today. Most of the highs will be higher, and the lows will be even lower.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
S = Supply/Demand: Small Cap + Volume
Supply and demand dictates the price of almost everything in your life. The law of supply and demand is more important than all the analyst opinions on Wall Street. The price of a stock with 400 million shares is hard to budge up because of the large supply of stock available. Yet, if a company has only 2 or 3 million shares outstanding, a reasonable amount of buying can push the price up rapidly because of the small available supply. If you are choosing between two stocks to buy, one with 60 million shares outstanding and one with 10 million shares, with all other factors equal, the smaller one will usually be the bigger mover. Stocks that have a large percentage owned by top management are generally better prospects. Again referencing O'Neil's 38 year study, more than 95% of the companies had less than 25 million shares outstanding when they had their greatest period of earnings improvement and stock price performance.
Foolish stock splits can hurt a stock's performance. Watch out for companies that split their stock 2 or 3 times in just a year or two. The splitting creates a larger supply and may make a company's stock performance more lethargic, like many "big cap" companies. Large holders who thinking of selling are often inclined to sell their 100,000 share positions before a 3-for-1 split would have them looking to sell 300,000. Smart short sellers (an infinitesimal group) pick on stocks beginning to falter after enormous price runups and splits, realizing that the potential number of shares for sale (particularly by funds) has dramatically been increased.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
L = Leader
People often buy stocks they're comfortable and familiar with, like an old pair of shoes. Usually these are draggy, slow-pokes rather than leaping leaders. It is really important to look at how your stock is performing in relation to the overall market. The 500 best performing stocks from 1953 to 1990 averaged a relative price strength of 87 (scale of 1-99) just before they began their major advances in price. Avoid laggard stocks and look for genuine leaders.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
I = Institutional Sponsorship
It takes big demand to move a stock significantly higher in price. Institutional buyers are the most powerful source. You don't need a large number of institutional owners, but should have at least a few. No institutional sponsorship in a stock is a bad sign because odds are that many institutional investors looked at the stock and passed it over. The things we are looking for with C-A-N-S-L-I-M are really signs that the bigger money (mutual funds, banks, insurance companies, pension funds, etc.) is coming into the stock. See that there is a better-than-average performance record by at least a few of the institutional owners.
Another good thing about some institutional sponsorship is that it provides buying support for the stock. Beware of stocks that become "over owned". By the time performance is so obvious that almost all institutions own it, it is probably too late. Pay attention to whether the number of institutional owners is increasing or decreasing.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
M = Market Direction
You can be right on everything else, but if you are wrong about the direction of the broad market you are still likely to lose money. The best way to analyze the overall market is to follow and understand every day what the general averages are doing. The difficult to recognize, but meaningful changes in the behavior of the market averages at important turning points is the best indicator of the condition of the whole market.
What signs should you look for to detect a market top? On one of the days in the uptrend, the total volume for the market will increase over the preceding day's high volume, but the Dow's closing average will show stalling action, or substantially less upward movement, than on prior days.
The spread between the daily high and low of the market index will likely be a bit larger than on the earlier days. Normal market liquidation near the market peak will only occur on one or two days, which are part of the uptrend. The market comes under distribution while it is advancing! This is one of the reasons so few people know how to recognize distribution (selling).
Immediately following the first selling near the top, a vacuum exists where volume may subside and the market averages will sell off for four days or so. The second, and probably the last early chance to recognize a top reversal is when the market attempts it's first rally, which it will always do after a number of days down from it's highest point. If this first attempt to bounce back follows through on the third, fourth, or fifth rally day either on decreased volume from the day before, or if the market average recovers less than half of the initial drop from it's former peak to the low, the comeback is feeble and sputtering when it should be getting strong. Frequently the first attempt at a rally during the beginning of a downtrend will fail abruptly. Possibly after a one day resurgence, the second day will open up strong, only to sell off toward the end of the day and suddenly close down.
After an advance in stocks for a couple of years, the majority of the original price leaders will top, and you can be fairly sure the overall market is going to get into trouble. It is very important to pay attention to the way the leading stocks are acting.
C - A - N - S - L - I - M
APPLE Trend Success
So I pulled the trigger based on the trend I have been observing over the past month of trading AAPL. Bought another 10 Jul 260 Calls below 9 around 1 pm and things recoverd making a quick 12%. Although I am keeping them with a target of 18 to sell. Glad I did, AAPL is up on a million shares in the afterhours market and futures are currently pointing higher for tomorrow.
Upgrades came in all week. Recommend buying the 2011 LEAPS 260-280 area soon.
Happy Trading...
Upgrades came in all week. Recommend buying the 2011 LEAPS 260-280 area soon.
Happy Trading...
Monday, May 24, 2010
Quick Update
Sorry, been out for a while... AAPL is still showing/proving a strong daily trend. Buying 260 July Calls Friday yielded 50% returns today. Lot's of upgrades coming in. Still looking at the 260-280 CALL Jan 11 LEAPS. Holding 10 contracts of July 260's...
Picked up 500k shares of Cord Blood America today. Recent pullbacks warrant adding more to this speculative play. The acquisition in Germany and the 2011 Chinese Company opening coupled with no additional dilution of shares makes this a strong speculative play. Expect a ris to at least .01
Citi has been upgraded based on its recent pummeling, time to pick up some 2011/2012 leaps.
ITMN could be a steal, but we'll wait on the FDA final word first.
Looking at HCN Health Care REIT ETF, good dividend and diverse across healthcare real estate.
Happy Trading...
Picked up 500k shares of Cord Blood America today. Recent pullbacks warrant adding more to this speculative play. The acquisition in Germany and the 2011 Chinese Company opening coupled with no additional dilution of shares makes this a strong speculative play. Expect a ris to at least .01
Citi has been upgraded based on its recent pummeling, time to pick up some 2011/2012 leaps.
ITMN could be a steal, but we'll wait on the FDA final word first.
Looking at HCN Health Care REIT ETF, good dividend and diverse across healthcare real estate.
Happy Trading...
Friday, May 7, 2010
Covered Call Alert AFFYMAX (AFFY)
This week has provided some great buying ops. AFFY is highly rated, just announced 1st quarter earnings, narrowed losses and met milestones. Trading around 22 with great 22.50 premiums in the front-months. I am going in with the Oct 22.50 for 7.40+.
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Closed 1 Opened 2 C, CY and ODP plus an Apple
I closed C Jun 5's yesterday for 100% profit. Opened CY May 14 and ODP May 9. May close out AAPL 260's today if the pullback holds, Apple was down in Europe over night and is pointing down in the US this morning, and open larger lots of AAPL 11 LEAP 270's.
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Friday, April 23, 2010
1440$ Profits in days
Our Apple (AAPL) 260 Jan 11 Calls are now up 1440$ per contract, 68% this week alone. Let's hang on for 300 in the underlying.
Our C Jun $5 are up 150% after the pullback post-earnings. We still have time on our side but I would start looking at selling end of May if things don't continue up. C has closed above its 10-day moving average each day so I think we are still OK.
Look at the AAPL Jan 11 300's, most open interest in centered there and we are already at 270 without IPad revenue in yet...
XOM 75$ calls continue higher.
We haven't traded the DIAmonds lately, I would be a buyer of ATM Jan LEAP PUTS and take advantage of any pullback over the next several months. First quarter earnings are over and they were great, revenue was up as well. Now we'll see what second quarter brings.
TNK is up and they have announced a .30 plus dividend this time around up substantially from last quarter...
Happy Trading...
Our C Jun $5 are up 150% after the pullback post-earnings. We still have time on our side but I would start looking at selling end of May if things don't continue up. C has closed above its 10-day moving average each day so I think we are still OK.
Look at the AAPL Jan 11 300's, most open interest in centered there and we are already at 270 without IPad revenue in yet...
XOM 75$ calls continue higher.
We haven't traded the DIAmonds lately, I would be a buyer of ATM Jan LEAP PUTS and take advantage of any pullback over the next several months. First quarter earnings are over and they were great, revenue was up as well. Now we'll see what second quarter brings.
TNK is up and they have announced a .30 plus dividend this time around up substantially from last quarter...
Happy Trading...
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Sorry
I meant to get word out on picking up AAPL 260 calls. AAPL is currently at 260 in the after hours after earnings release. But if you listened to me and picked up the 200 calls you owe me!
C is continuing to do well, hold a great base. I am curious if the goverment has started selling shares as this would keep the price kind of level given the amount of the shares they are going to systematically unload. At least we are holding around $5.
Happy trading...
C is continuing to do well, hold a great base. I am curious if the goverment has started selling shares as this would keep the price kind of level given the amount of the shares they are going to systematically unload. At least we are holding around $5.
Happy trading...
Sunday, April 18, 2010
APPLE Target upgrade
Citi and Piper both upgraded their target of AAPL to 300 and 299 respectively. Expect strong sales reports for both Ipod and Iphone, lower chip prices and higerh ASP (Average Selling Prices). Then factor in Ipad sales and you've got good momentum.
Start looking at Jan 11 270-300's. 270's priced at 19.70. 260's are back at the 200 premium recommended last month.
Happyt Trading...
Start looking at Jan 11 270-300's. 270's priced at 19.70. 260's are back at the 200 premium recommended last month.
Happyt Trading...
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Yet Another Weekend Update
RAX-If you set your limits, you got out at 20.
FSRL-Taking a pause, like everything else, after continuing to rise, was a great covered call for April
IPI-Still on a run down, if you shorted it and closed on Friday congrats, if you shorted it outright hang on too it especially with the pressure on the market from GS SEC investigation.
C-Volatile! I picked up a quarter of my planned Jan 11 7.50 calls, in case earnings go well, especially after the shakeout Thurs/Fri... Good earnings results should not be priced in now. Looks like anything over 0 per share earnings is good. Look for forward guidance to bolster or stifle the equity. The Jun 4 were almost up 800% last week, the Jun 5's were up 420% at one point, still up amost 200%. Will be watching Monday at 8am...
XOM CALLS-still better than purchase price, will look to continue purchasing 75 and 80's as more data becomes available and gas prices continue to climb
UNG-Still looking at natural gas for a long-term hold. Will look at 12 LEAPS when I get a chance to figure out what the best underlying will be to trade.
CROX-Continues to perform outstandingly. We talked about this last year after reviewing the information on their European Factories and global expansion. Need to keep an eye on this for some Long-term out of the money calls. Or a protected PUT.
AAPL-Almost at $250. The JAn 200 calls are over up over a 100%.
ABK-I discussed shorting it after the earnings news, I speculated the sudden rise was short coverings since the earnings report was positive only because of Mark-to-Market rules and some tax benefits. Looks like that worked out well... I did not trade ABK. Would only have done so if I was able to day-trade it.
[Speculative Idea] RVBD-If you are looking to lock some money up for a liitle while, the 12 LEAPS are around 7 bucks, this could be an excellent covered position or depending on your outlook go naked on the calls or puts...
Still looking into CISCO 30 LEAPS. Will put more time into this after C earnings announcement...
Next sector will be BIOPHARMA... Obviously after ITMN, DNDN and HGSI we need to find the next one. Would be nice to find a VRMLQ (Q on a ticker identifies a company in bankruptcy) .05 in Sept now 25 bucks!
FL-I briefly mentioned FL in a previous post, they just hit a 52-week high and paid a dividend of .15 on Wednesday!
Happy Trading...
FSRL-Taking a pause, like everything else, after continuing to rise, was a great covered call for April
IPI-Still on a run down, if you shorted it and closed on Friday congrats, if you shorted it outright hang on too it especially with the pressure on the market from GS SEC investigation.
C-Volatile! I picked up a quarter of my planned Jan 11 7.50 calls, in case earnings go well, especially after the shakeout Thurs/Fri... Good earnings results should not be priced in now. Looks like anything over 0 per share earnings is good. Look for forward guidance to bolster or stifle the equity. The Jun 4 were almost up 800% last week, the Jun 5's were up 420% at one point, still up amost 200%. Will be watching Monday at 8am...
XOM CALLS-still better than purchase price, will look to continue purchasing 75 and 80's as more data becomes available and gas prices continue to climb
UNG-Still looking at natural gas for a long-term hold. Will look at 12 LEAPS when I get a chance to figure out what the best underlying will be to trade.
CROX-Continues to perform outstandingly. We talked about this last year after reviewing the information on their European Factories and global expansion. Need to keep an eye on this for some Long-term out of the money calls. Or a protected PUT.
AAPL-Almost at $250. The JAn 200 calls are over up over a 100%.
ABK-I discussed shorting it after the earnings news, I speculated the sudden rise was short coverings since the earnings report was positive only because of Mark-to-Market rules and some tax benefits. Looks like that worked out well... I did not trade ABK. Would only have done so if I was able to day-trade it.
[Speculative Idea] RVBD-If you are looking to lock some money up for a liitle while, the 12 LEAPS are around 7 bucks, this could be an excellent covered position or depending on your outlook go naked on the calls or puts...
Still looking into CISCO 30 LEAPS. Will put more time into this after C earnings announcement...
Next sector will be BIOPHARMA... Obviously after ITMN, DNDN and HGSI we need to find the next one. Would be nice to find a VRMLQ (Q on a ticker identifies a company in bankruptcy) .05 in Sept now 25 bucks!
FL-I briefly mentioned FL in a previous post, they just hit a 52-week high and paid a dividend of .15 on Wednesday!
Happy Trading...
Thursday, April 15, 2010
More Updates on Recent Picks
Citi 4 Jun Calls were at 110$ today. Citi pulled back in the afternoon but traded 1.5 billion shares today and is still around 4.80. Options expiration friday is tomorrow and earnings release at 8am Monday. Expect some volatility tomorrow!
Jun $5 Calls were up 300% today, at 200% at the close. Depending on results I'd be ready to pick up some $6 and then 7.50 LEAPS.
RAX is up towards $21 today. I recommend a limit at $20 to ensure quick profits. If your still in they report in early May.
RVBD 2012 Jan 30 LEAPS have over a $7 premium if your looking to lock some money away on a long-term covered call.
Jun $5 Calls were up 300% today, at 200% at the close. Depending on results I'd be ready to pick up some $6 and then 7.50 LEAPS.
RAX is up towards $21 today. I recommend a limit at $20 to ensure quick profits. If your still in they report in early May.
RVBD 2012 Jan 30 LEAPS have over a $7 premium if your looking to lock some money away on a long-term covered call.
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
$5, FIVE Dollars (C)
Citi just hit $5. The 4 JUN Calls we purchased for 15$ a contract closed at $101 (673% return) a contract today and will open quite a bit higher in the a.m. given C just broke $5. The 5 JUN Calls are now going to move a little faster with the implied value and still about 60-days till expiration combined with added volitility of earnings on the 19th.
Looking at the 11 and 12 LEAPS at the 5 and 7.50 strikes, probably spread across the two years and possbily across the strikes as well.
UPS reported well and early which should ignite another rally going forward tomorrow!
Starting to look at Broadcom and Motorola for future trades. CROX broke $10 today as well.
Happy trading....
Looking at the 11 and 12 LEAPS at the 5 and 7.50 strikes, probably spread across the two years and possbily across the strikes as well.
UPS reported well and early which should ignite another rally going forward tomorrow!
Starting to look at Broadcom and Motorola for future trades. CROX broke $10 today as well.
Happy trading....
Saturday, April 10, 2010
Weekend Long LEAP Option Idea
Cisco announced it's new wireless router for home use. It appears 25% of all wireless routers are returned because they are too complext to configure. Cisco purchased Mino, the maker of the Flip handheld video camera. Why, as I wondered,? It appears they cracked the code on developing a simple to use yet functional prdouct that consumers like and more importantly buy, I see them everywhere and watch the video they make, simple to use, edit and display. When they bought Mino they told the group to produce the Flip of wireless routers. Apparently they did, the Cisco Valet--http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-20002168-1.html
The company belief in the product is in the fact they are going to spend in the next 3-months more than the industy has spent in 5-years marketing this product.
Cisco has been doing extremely well, recovering and trending higher. The 2011 25 LEAPS look well priced for where Cisco may be by the end of the year and for .50 more you can pick up the 2012 30 LEAPS. I can see Cisco at 30 this year, easy if the Valet is well received so I am looking at the 12 LEAPS.
I currently own cisco and having been buying over the last year.
Happy Trading...
The company belief in the product is in the fact they are going to spend in the next 3-months more than the industy has spent in 5-years marketing this product.
Cisco has been doing extremely well, recovering and trending higher. The 2011 25 LEAPS look well priced for where Cisco may be by the end of the year and for .50 more you can pick up the 2012 30 LEAPS. I can see Cisco at 30 this year, easy if the Valet is well received so I am looking at the 12 LEAPS.
I currently own cisco and having been buying over the last year.
Happy Trading...
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Thurs Morning Update
You have to love news events. Continued merger talks pushed Us Airways (LCC) over the top this morning in the premarket (small volume volatility) on news they may merge with United Airways (UAUA).
Futures are lower waiting for economic data points. If this data falls below expectations expect some more capitulation in the market, we are still technically overbought. Trailing stops are certainly a good thing!
Greece is still a short play until their bailout is figured out and then it’s on to Europe!
Happy Trading.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Some Current Ideas
Good pull-back today, healthy, but I think it was the catalyst some traders were looking for to take some profits off the table. Watch the futures may be a good opportunity to trade the bounce tomorrow.
C is doing well, strong volume today and touched 4.40. The Jun Options are not showing any implicit value as the premiums were trading even past 4--strange as their is some volatility and certainly time value left.
TXT, which we have traded in the past is looking strong, we traded the calls last year for significant gains. May be a product of takeover rumor, but buy the rumor sell the news. This leads us to what happened to PALM today, up almost .70 on a stock should be dropping steadily. Lenovo is rumored to be looking at buying them and if they can't HP is on the list as well. If all this is rumor then the short play is back on.
FSLR jumped again today, put your trailing stops or cover for April calls.
Looking into APPL Jul 11 270 calls for AAPL, could be a double by summer's end.
Picked up SQNM 7.50 11 Calls, I may straddle this. When the news comes out it's going either way.
COYN won an award from General Dyamics--looks like the .085 base is holding.
NKE looks to be taking some trade-space back from Under Armor, is going strong and is not a fad like CROX, although CROX is performing well this year, need to research what they are doing in Europe.
Quicksilver (ZQK) is over $5 are consumer confidence good earnings... Their peers are all above $10.
If NCOC cna find funding for it's current debt they may be a good speculative play...
HL Mining broke 6 today and a new 52-week high... Look at long 6 calls.
Happy Trading...
C is doing well, strong volume today and touched 4.40. The Jun Options are not showing any implicit value as the premiums were trading even past 4--strange as their is some volatility and certainly time value left.
TXT, which we have traded in the past is looking strong, we traded the calls last year for significant gains. May be a product of takeover rumor, but buy the rumor sell the news. This leads us to what happened to PALM today, up almost .70 on a stock should be dropping steadily. Lenovo is rumored to be looking at buying them and if they can't HP is on the list as well. If all this is rumor then the short play is back on.
FSLR jumped again today, put your trailing stops or cover for April calls.
Looking into APPL Jul 11 270 calls for AAPL, could be a double by summer's end.
Picked up SQNM 7.50 11 Calls, I may straddle this. When the news comes out it's going either way.
COYN won an award from General Dyamics--looks like the .085 base is holding.
NKE looks to be taking some trade-space back from Under Armor, is going strong and is not a fad like CROX, although CROX is performing well this year, need to research what they are doing in Europe.
Quicksilver (ZQK) is over $5 are consumer confidence good earnings... Their peers are all above $10.
If NCOC cna find funding for it's current debt they may be a good speculative play...
HL Mining broke 6 today and a new 52-week high... Look at long 6 calls.
Happy Trading...
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Weekend Partial Update
I have been under electronic attack this week and finally changed the channel on my wireless router and putting a new floor in my kitchen as part of the never ending remodelling...
Some quick updates...
C traded well at the close Friday. Still expecting a run-up before earnings on the 19th and then we'll see what the numbers look like...
AAPL has a history of pulling back after new product launches, if this happens recommend trying to pick them up on the dips or continue to buy the 2011 LEAPS, if you got the 200 LEAPS recommended earlier congrats on another 100% run.
Micron received another upgrade and target at 20. I closed my calls out last week on the short run we had before the pullback.
RIMM looks like a buying opportunity... The numbers were great even though they missed estimates. Look into this, sell some PUTS if you are interested in buying...
I will be looking at Foot Locker ast they are trending higher and expanding overseas, as well as some other retailers as the consumer is coming back. Consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of the economic numbers!
Mastercard and Visa are on the list for some CALL buying, remember the V IPO we got in on at the low and actually sold at the high.
ITMN, my worst trade received another upgrade and target above 37...
Rackspace (RAX) is bouncing back nicely, would put a $20 limit to sell on it, as I am a trader not an investor.
More to come as I get back into the routine...
Happy Trading...
Some quick updates...
C traded well at the close Friday. Still expecting a run-up before earnings on the 19th and then we'll see what the numbers look like...
AAPL has a history of pulling back after new product launches, if this happens recommend trying to pick them up on the dips or continue to buy the 2011 LEAPS, if you got the 200 LEAPS recommended earlier congrats on another 100% run.
Micron received another upgrade and target at 20. I closed my calls out last week on the short run we had before the pullback.
RIMM looks like a buying opportunity... The numbers were great even though they missed estimates. Look into this, sell some PUTS if you are interested in buying...
I will be looking at Foot Locker ast they are trending higher and expanding overseas, as well as some other retailers as the consumer is coming back. Consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of the economic numbers!
Mastercard and Visa are on the list for some CALL buying, remember the V IPO we got in on at the low and actually sold at the high.
ITMN, my worst trade received another upgrade and target above 37...
Rackspace (RAX) is bouncing back nicely, would put a $20 limit to sell on it, as I am a trader not an investor.
More to come as I get back into the routine...
Happy Trading...
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Another option for Citi (C)
Discussing the long-term potential for Citi today I was discussing protecting a long purchase of the equity by buying the
Got Gas???
With all the talk of drilling off the US coast and the need for utilizing Natural Gas for future clean burning fuel sources I had to start looking at Gas and Oil companies...
I currenlty hold Jan 11 Calls in XOM so finding an ETF with XOM was in my search criteria
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) top holdings:
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
Conocophillips (NYSE: COP)
Occidental (NYSE: OXY)
Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN)
For Natural Gas ETF's I'm looking into:
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG)
I am zeroing in on UNG since NG is at its low around $3 down from the $7 range and UNG is at its 52-week low area while FCG is at its high. UNG is meant to replicate the performance of nat gas through futures and other instruments not necessarily stocks, so obviusly this should be near its low, a good diversified way to play the future surge in NG price, although it might take time... FCG is in exploration and production stocks....
Happy Trading...
I currenlty hold Jan 11 Calls in XOM so finding an ETF with XOM was in my search criteria
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) top holdings:
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
Conocophillips (NYSE: COP)
Occidental (NYSE: OXY)
Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN)
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)
First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund (FCG)
I am zeroing in on UNG since NG is at its low around $3 down from the $7 range and UNG is at its 52-week low area while FCG is at its high. UNG is meant to replicate the performance of nat gas through futures and other instruments not necessarily stocks, so obviusly this should be near its low, a good diversified way to play the future surge in NG price, although it might take time... FCG is in exploration and production stocks....
Happy Trading...
Long Term Dividend Paying Holding (DHY)
I've been looking for some long-term dividend producing investments lately completely value priced. Especially after picking Teekay (TNK) for a long-term investment and watching up steadily rise, both the equity and the dividend.
So I started with equities under $5 that are paying dividends and the top of the list was Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund, Inc. (DHY).
This is a BOND ETF that invests in primarily low-grade US investments. So read some risk but at $3.03 closing price today not much risk, although this is near its 52-week high so some downside is there if the markets were to flip-upside down.
DHY is currently paying a 10% yield. Not bad for a $3 investment.
If you don't mind investing in the following I recommend looking into this for a long-term holding, possibly a Sharebuilder buy...
BB Bonds 28.0 %
B Bonds 51.1 %
CCC Bonds 27.6 %
Happy Trading...
So I started with equities under $5 that are paying dividends and the top of the list was Credit Suisse High Yield Bond Fund, Inc. (DHY).
This is a BOND ETF that invests in primarily low-grade US investments. So read some risk but at $3.03 closing price today not much risk, although this is near its 52-week high so some downside is there if the markets were to flip-upside down.
DHY is currently paying a 10% yield. Not bad for a $3 investment.
If you don't mind investing in the following I recommend looking into this for a long-term holding, possibly a Sharebuilder buy...
BB Bonds 28.0 %
B Bonds 51.1 %
CCC Bonds 27.6 %
Happy Trading...
Monday, March 29, 2010
Last Post for Monday SOLAR Speculation and FSLR update
SPIR pulled back to its 52-week low. A component and solutions vendor and has a foundry developing solar cells as well. Something to look into. 52-week high was $9.
FSLR is up about 10 bucks from last discussion. Good time to sell some covered calls or possibly put a stop on your premiums if you picked up some calls.
Happy Trading...
FSLR is up about 10 bucks from last discussion. Good time to sell some covered calls or possibly put a stop on your premiums if you picked up some calls.
Happy Trading...
Medical Equipment Doubler (FONR)
One of my stock screener variables is volume, I tend to look for stocks trading over 100K shares average. Maybe I need to lower that to anything greater than one...
FONR was up well over 100% today but there has been no volume or news so I would not have been on my radar scope anyway...
They are the maker of the upright MRI http://www.fonar.com/
For Your Info from Google Finance:
Fonar Corporation (Fonar) operates in two business segments: medical equipment segment, and physician management and diagnostic services segment. Fonar is engaged in the business of designing, manufacturing, selling and servicing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners, which utilize MRI technology for the detection and diagnosis of human disease. The product Fonar is promoting is its Upright MRI. Health Management Corporation (HMCA) was established as a wholly owned subsidiary to enable the Company to expand into the business of providing management services to medical providers. HMCA provides management services, administrative services, office space, equipment, repair, maintenance service and clerical and other non-medical personnel to medical providers. Since July 28, 2005, following the sale of HMCA's physical therapy and rehabilitation business, HMCA has elected to provide its services solely to diagnostic imaging centers.
and some interesting trivia:
Fonar was a dispute between medical device manufacturer Fonar Corporation and General Electric over Fonar's patent on MRI technology. Fonar's founder, Raymond Damadian, was issued U.S. Patent 3,789,832 [1] for an "apparatus and method for detecting cancer in tissue" using the magnetic resonance of atoms. Damadian's patent was the first patent on an MRI machine issued in the United States [2]. Also at issue was a later patent, U.S. Patent 4,871,966 [3] issued in 1989, covering a method for obtaining MRI images in a single scan. GE is a major manufacturer of MRI scanners, and Fonar sued GE for infringing these patents by producing its scanners as well as inducing others to infringe.
Happy Trading...
FONR was up well over 100% today but there has been no volume or news so I would not have been on my radar scope anyway...
They are the maker of the upright MRI http://www.fonar.com/
For Your Info from Google Finance:
Fonar Corporation (Fonar) operates in two business segments: medical equipment segment, and physician management and diagnostic services segment. Fonar is engaged in the business of designing, manufacturing, selling and servicing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners, which utilize MRI technology for the detection and diagnosis of human disease. The product Fonar is promoting is its Upright MRI. Health Management Corporation (HMCA) was established as a wholly owned subsidiary to enable the Company to expand into the business of providing management services to medical providers. HMCA provides management services, administrative services, office space, equipment, repair, maintenance service and clerical and other non-medical personnel to medical providers. Since July 28, 2005, following the sale of HMCA's physical therapy and rehabilitation business, HMCA has elected to provide its services solely to diagnostic imaging centers.
and some interesting trivia:
Fonar was a dispute between medical device manufacturer Fonar Corporation and General Electric over Fonar's patent on MRI technology. Fonar's founder, Raymond Damadian, was issued U.S. Patent 3,789,832 [1] for an "apparatus and method for detecting cancer in tissue" using the magnetic resonance of atoms. Damadian's patent was the first patent on an MRI machine issued in the United States [2]. Also at issue was a later patent, U.S. Patent 4,871,966 [3] issued in 1989, covering a method for obtaining MRI images in a single scan. GE is a major manufacturer of MRI scanners, and Fonar sued GE for infringing these patents by producing its scanners as well as inducing others to infringe.
Happy Trading...
Watching Natural Gas (XOM XTO UNL UNG GAZ)
With all the talk of natural gas this year it is the worst performing commodity despite some of the harshest winter we have had in a long time. As most things energy (or Greece) Speculators have driven the price down, just the opposite of the oil price action we saw a couple of years ago from speculation. Additionally the governement numbers showed an increase in supply adding to the over production and under use (more supply and less demand = lower prices) However, most analyst and refiners see a short term consolidation in price with a 2-3$ increase in the long term which is about 100% up from the $5 mark of today...
XOM jumped today, taking our Jan 11 75 options with it after the planned acquisition of XTO Energy for a small premium. From DJN today:
XTO Energy Inc. (XTO), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Premium offered: $0.41 or 0.87%
Acquirer: XOM
Target: XTO
Shares offered per share: 0.7098 share
Value of offer per share: $47.49
Value of outstanding common equity: $27,559,864,337
Acquirer share price: $66.91
Target share price: $47.08
Expected closing: 2Q 2010 5/16/2010
Annualized gain: 6.61%
Note: Exxon's deal with XTO contains language allowing Exxon to back out of the agreement if Congress passes a law requiring stronger federal oversignt of a controversial drilling technique, called hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking", illegal or "commercially impracticable." The companies
participated in a hearing in late January about the issue and the EPA has started a study on it. Critics of the method have say fracking creates pollution, but U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has also said he wouldn't
favor a ban on it.
Some Nat Gas ETF's that are near/at their 52-week lows: UNL UNG GAZ.
Happy Trading...
XOM jumped today, taking our Jan 11 75 options with it after the planned acquisition of XTO Energy for a small premium. From DJN today:
XTO Energy Inc. (XTO), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Premium offered: $0.41 or 0.87%
Acquirer: XOM
Target: XTO
Shares offered per share: 0.7098 share
Value of offer per share: $47.49
Value of outstanding common equity: $27,559,864,337
Acquirer share price: $66.91
Target share price: $47.08
Expected closing: 2Q 2010 5/16/2010
Annualized gain: 6.61%
Note: Exxon's deal with XTO contains language allowing Exxon to back out of the agreement if Congress passes a law requiring stronger federal oversignt of a controversial drilling technique, called hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking", illegal or "commercially impracticable." The companies
participated in a hearing in late January about the issue and the EPA has started a study on it. Critics of the method have say fracking creates pollution, but U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has also said he wouldn't
favor a ban on it.
Some Nat Gas ETF's that are near/at their 52-week lows: UNL UNG GAZ.
Happy Trading...
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Solar Thoughts
A recent report from Credit Suisse showed their thoughts on the solar demand forecast for 2010. They see them up over 12 gigawatts. This appears to be very bullish escpecially since in the past Solar and Oil traded in correlation over the past couple of years, meaning as oil went up Solar went up. This was how we made money when oil was jumping over 100 a barrel.
Despite the oil correlation their is a significant need for green energy and solar is a big part of that. I have been waiting for divergene in price action and we may be seeing that now.
The danger of building large capacity of solar panels and components leads to inventory glut if businesses aren't buying leading to oversupply and lower demand equalling lower prices. Especially if Europe isn't installing and tax-credits are lowered or removed...
If you look at the forecasts from some of the bigger solar firms during their earnings reports and guidance they are discussing high gigawatts as well.
Additonally, guidance of 4GW capacity in the 2nd quarter of 2010 alone has been made. So how do you trade this?
Look at the solar stocks indiviudually, FSLR, YGE, SOLR, MEMC, SPWR etc... or look at two ETFs, TAN and PBW.
I have traded PBW successfully in the past and I like the fact it is below $10. I also like the diversity among solar companies in TAN which provides a lower price risk across the industry.
PBW is more than just solar companies...
Happy Trading...
Despite the oil correlation their is a significant need for green energy and solar is a big part of that. I have been waiting for divergene in price action and we may be seeing that now.
The danger of building large capacity of solar panels and components leads to inventory glut if businesses aren't buying leading to oversupply and lower demand equalling lower prices. Especially if Europe isn't installing and tax-credits are lowered or removed...
If you look at the forecasts from some of the bigger solar firms during their earnings reports and guidance they are discussing high gigawatts as well.
Additonally, guidance of 4GW capacity in the 2nd quarter of 2010 alone has been made. So how do you trade this?
Look at the solar stocks indiviudually, FSLR, YGE, SOLR, MEMC, SPWR etc... or look at two ETFs, TAN and PBW.
I have traded PBW successfully in the past and I like the fact it is below $10. I also like the diversity among solar companies in TAN which provides a lower price risk across the industry.
PBW is more than just solar companies...
Happy Trading...
Simplifed Moving Average Chartology
Screening Health Care ETFs I came across this chart for XLV. I thought I would share what Moving Averages (MA) can be used for as this one shows a great 50 support line. Keep in mind this is a simple use of the MA. The 200-day is used to show if the current price is holding well above its 200 day average price, which would show strength in the equity. The 50-day is used to show how short-term price action is sustaining. With this chart you can clearly see that each time XLV touched its 50-day it either bounced or shortly broke and quickly recovered back above. This line shows a good support line and technically it is holding at the 50-day line. So what does this mean to us? Not that I am recommending XLV for anything except a simple example of technical chart analysis. As a trader you see the equity has pulled back to the 50-day, so it may be an opportunity to trade the bounce. Setting a entry point limit order below the 50-day and a trailing stop could be an easy trade set-up. Additionally, if you are an options trader you could use the chart to help determine entry point for buying calls, selling puts etc... Also, if the premiums are good, this also can assist you in your covered call strategies as well.
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Weekend Update
So far, APPL, MU, IPI and C trades have proven extremely profitable, i.e. C 4 Apr Calls were up 400% early yesterday this after our 300% return a few weeks ago. AAPL 200 Calls were about 200% already. IPI is still below 30 for the short trade and MU was almost at .50. Most held up even with the pull back after the Korean sunken ship. I mentioned BIDU 600 calls in person last week only to watch them explode to well over 600 on the news google was pulling out of China. They have since pulled back below, some research may show this to be profitable again.
So what's next? I am taking it slow... Even if we only have 4 quarters this year like this last one we are doing well. We are already above last years gains (Courtesy of a little greed in the financials--shorting them was probably not the best idea, although we added to our knowledge of market dynamics).
The next industries I am looking into are Cloud computing, read Rackspace (RAX) as the world leader in this area. I actually have been to their facility and now they have exploded into much larger spaces to fill demand. They did have a significant pullback this week and I hope my research will show this as a buying opportunity. The second, since many name brand drugs are coming off patents soon the smaller (read value) companies should be poised to do well. I have a friend in the Pharmaceutical sales business who explained the cycle of drug sales and we are at about that 10-year point for the smaller names to do well. Will continue to look into this for trading opportunities. As well as manufacturers of medical equipment, VAR just announced a product that will compete with ARAY's and ARAY pulled back to support of $6. Would like to think this is a buying op for ARAY but their CyberKnife is extremely expensive, if someone were to provide the same capability cheaper they will lose footing... SQNM should be revealing their next gen product as well, discussed previously.
Citi (C) is still an interesting trade as its support keeps climbing and the Jan 11 LEAPS have exploded in open interest.
Agriculture is another industry to watch if the recovery is taking hold and a quick glance at the Solar industry is showing some stability in support prices as well with many already showing 100% returns. FSLR pulled back to around 110 and then popped to over 114. Good for covered calls.
I have been on the road a lot this month so I have missed out on getting in on some of my own recommendations courtesy of just barely off on the entry points. APPL at 25 instead of 27 as an example...
I also doubled up on my Exxon (XOM) Jan 11 75$ calls.
Any ideas for the group are welcome! leave a comment for all to discuss.
Happy Trading...
So what's next? I am taking it slow... Even if we only have 4 quarters this year like this last one we are doing well. We are already above last years gains (Courtesy of a little greed in the financials--shorting them was probably not the best idea, although we added to our knowledge of market dynamics).
The next industries I am looking into are Cloud computing, read Rackspace (RAX) as the world leader in this area. I actually have been to their facility and now they have exploded into much larger spaces to fill demand. They did have a significant pullback this week and I hope my research will show this as a buying opportunity. The second, since many name brand drugs are coming off patents soon the smaller (read value) companies should be poised to do well. I have a friend in the Pharmaceutical sales business who explained the cycle of drug sales and we are at about that 10-year point for the smaller names to do well. Will continue to look into this for trading opportunities. As well as manufacturers of medical equipment, VAR just announced a product that will compete with ARAY's and ARAY pulled back to support of $6. Would like to think this is a buying op for ARAY but their CyberKnife is extremely expensive, if someone were to provide the same capability cheaper they will lose footing... SQNM should be revealing their next gen product as well, discussed previously.
Citi (C) is still an interesting trade as its support keeps climbing and the Jan 11 LEAPS have exploded in open interest.
Agriculture is another industry to watch if the recovery is taking hold and a quick glance at the Solar industry is showing some stability in support prices as well with many already showing 100% returns. FSLR pulled back to around 110 and then popped to over 114. Good for covered calls.
I have been on the road a lot this month so I have missed out on getting in on some of my own recommendations courtesy of just barely off on the entry points. APPL at 25 instead of 27 as an example...
I also doubled up on my Exxon (XOM) Jan 11 75$ calls.
Any ideas for the group are welcome! leave a comment for all to discuss.
Happy Trading...
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Good Volatility in Sequenom (SQNM) for some covered calls...
Recenlty SQNM reported an 11% drop in Q4 revenue based on weak sales in its MassArray equipment and associated products.
SQNM is preparing to launch the next generation MassArray and the medical community is probably waiting on this upgrade to purchase which would have been a prime driver for the decline.
A recent upgrade sent SQNM higher and has pulled back off of the high.
SQNM had plummeted after issues in the past on its Down-Syndrome test however they continue to focus its resources on a DNA versions of its molecular diagnostics test for Down's syndrome.
6 and 7 Calls in the near to outer months are showing decent premiums. Currently May 6 at 1.20 with an underlying price of 6.63 and May 7 at .69.
Happy Trading...
SQNM is preparing to launch the next generation MassArray and the medical community is probably waiting on this upgrade to purchase which would have been a prime driver for the decline.
A recent upgrade sent SQNM higher and has pulled back off of the high.
SQNM had plummeted after issues in the past on its Down-Syndrome test however they continue to focus its resources on a DNA versions of its molecular diagnostics test for Down's syndrome.
6 and 7 Calls in the near to outer months are showing decent premiums. Currently May 6 at 1.20 with an underlying price of 6.63 and May 7 at .69.
Happy Trading...
Analyst Missing the truth on Redhat (RHT)?
Analyst's appear to be missing the numbers reported in RHT's conference call. The negative that they are focusing on ~ 20M was based on currency conversion issues, primarily in Euro's. Guidance was on or above expectations. However the pullback in the after hours yesterday looks like it may provide a buying opportunity. At least the company thinks so as they just announce a $300M stock repurchase.
This is a prime example of the sensitivity to earning's report in this environment. PALM shot up immediately on earnings report because at first glance the numbers looked good, then reality set in...
Happy Trading...
This is a prime example of the sensitivity to earning's report in this environment. PALM shot up immediately on earnings report because at first glance the numbers looked good, then reality set in...
Happy Trading...
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Sharebuilder Performance
I mention my Sharebuilder account to many people. Sharebuilder is a way to automagically sock away some money for a rainy day. I tend to seperate my trading account with TD Ameritrade from my long-term mutual funds (Yes, I said mutuals, I didn't always know about investing) and then my sharebuilder is where I quietly load up on equities for a rainy day. My current performance in my account is below... Most people that know me know that Teekay Tankers is one of my favorites basically because it has done well and still pays a dividend. I also thought OCNF below was going to be a favorite shipping company as well. It may still pan out in the long run as they just signed up to build 3-ships and have contracts to keep them full when in production. Truth in lending, these are the only equities that I hold long-term and I am currently only adding to TNK. Keep in mind OCNF is only around .80 right now. If it were to recover this would be one of those 90+% dividend paying stocks...
C CITIGROUP INC 24.98 %
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC 20.31 %
OCNF OCEANFREIGHT INC -57.48 %
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD 40.62 %
C CITIGROUP INC 24.98 %
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC 20.31 %
OCNF OCEANFREIGHT INC -57.48 %
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS LTD 40.62 %
Citi (C) Options Update
Talk about bullish expectations, scroll down and look at the ATM - OTM calls several months out and especially in th LEAPS for 11 and 12. $5 dollar calls have a lot of support behind them. 4 Apr Calls are 150% Higher today if you got them at the .10 point. I still think the 4 and 5 calls either individually or as a vertical/calendar spread for May/Jun is a good trade. Slowly climbing on decent volume over the last couple of weeks. Good analysts upgrades. If you are in the April calls suggest looking at taking some profits off the table before the 19th in case we get caught in an earnings trend.
VRN_012211C5 VRN Jan 22 2011 5.0 Call 304 0.37 0.36 0.37 1,962,798 0.395 0.241
VRN_012211C7.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 7.5 Call 304 0.09 0.09 0.1 948,466 0.127 0.117
Happy Trading...
Symbol Description Days To Expiration Last Bid Ask Open Interest Delta Gamma
C_052210C3 C May 22 2010 3.0 Call 59 1.18 1.16 1.19 2,565 0.952 0.115
C_052210P3 C May 22 2010 3.0 Put 59 0.02 0.02 0.03 1,691 -0.058 0.125
C_052210C4 C May 22 2010 4.0 Call 59 0.35 0.34 0.35 15,059 0.627 0.573
C_052210P4 C May 22 2010 4.0 Put 59 0.2 0.19 0.2 39,482 -0.375 0.556
C_052210C5 C May 22 2010 5.0 Call 59 0.07 0.06 0.07 23,749 0.175 0.345
C_052210P5 C May 22 2010 5.0 Put 59 0.91 0.9 0.92 606 -0.818 0.345
C_052210C6 C May 22 2010 6.0 Call 59 0.02 0.01 0.02 216 0.046 0.113
C_052210P6 C May 22 2010 6.0 Put 59 1.85 1.85 1.88 0 -0.93 0.14
C_052210C7 C May 22 2010 7.0 Call 59 0 0 0.02 0 0.027 0.059
C_052210P7 C May 22 2010 7.0 Put 59 2.83 2.85 2.87 0 -0.948 0.087
C_061910C2 C Jun 19 2010 2.0 Call 87 2.18 2.14 2.16 40,417 1 0.002
C_061910P2 C Jun 19 2010 2.0 Put 87 0.01 0 0.01 53,131 -0.01 0.018
C_061910C3 C Jun 19 2010 3.0 Call 87 1.18 1.17 1.18 190,809 0.956 0.109
C_061910P3 C Jun 19 2010 3.0 Put 87 0.03 0.02 0.03 518,068 -0.058 0.124
C_061910C4 C Jun 19 2010 4.0 Call 87 0.39 0.39 0.4 945,952 0.62 0.484
C_061910P4 C Jun 19 2010 4.0 Put 87 0.24 0.24 0.25 430,336 -0.382 0.466
C_061910C5 C Jun 19 2010 5.0 Call 87 0.11 0.1 0.11 659,428 0.226 0.339
C_061910P5 C Jun 19 2010 5.0 Put 87 0.93 0.95 0.96 82,793 -0.759 0.334
C_061910C6 C Jun 19 2010 6.0 Call 87 0.03 0.03 0.04 95,216 0.083 0.152
C_061910P6 C Jun 19 2010 6.0 Put 87 1.86 1.87 1.89 4,705 -0.898 0.165
C_061910C7 C Jun 19 2010 7.0 Call 87 0.01 0.01 0.02 28,102 0.037 0.072
C_061910P7 C Jun 19 2010 7.0 Put 87 2.98 2.85 2.88 458 -0.931 0.101
C_091810C2 C Sep 18 2010 2.0 Call 178 2.2 2.16 2.18 10,583 0.987 0.023
C_091810P2 C Sep 18 2010 2.0 Put 178 0.03 0.01 0.02 14,752 -0.021 0.03
C_091810C3 C Sep 18 2010 3.0 Call 178 1.25 1.25 1.26 62,911 0.884 0.147
C_091810P3 C Sep 18 2010 3.0 Put 178 0.1 0.09 0.1 240,351 -0.121 0.148
C_091810C4 C Sep 18 2010 4.0 Call 178 0.56 0.55 0.56 170,156 0.615 0.321
C_091810P4 C Sep 18 2010 4.0 Put 178 0.41 0.4 0.41 75,115 -0.385 0.305
C_091810C5 C Sep 18 2010 5.0 Call 178 0.22 0.21 0.22 174,481 0.318 0.295
C_091810P5 C Sep 18 2010 5.0 Put 178 1.03 1.05 1.07 80,181 -0.667 0.284
C_091810C6 C Sep 18 2010 6.0 Call 178 0.1 0.09 0.1 55,905 0.159 0.186
C_091810P6 C Sep 18 2010 6.0 Put 178 1.9 1.92 1.94 6,186 -0.821 0.189
C_091810C7 C Sep 18 2010 7.0 Call 178 0.04 0.04 0.05 27,370 0.082 0.11
C_091810P7 C Sep 18 2010 7.0 Put 178 2.86 2.88 2.9 1,860 -0.878 0.128
VRN_012211C1 VRN Jan 22 2011 1.0 Call 304 3.18 3.15 3.2 25,340 0.989 0.009
VRN_012211P1 VRN Jan 22 2011 1.0 Put 304 0.02 0.01 0.02 66,786 -0.011 0.009
VRN_012211C2.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 2.5 Call 304 1.76 1.75 1.77 408,509 0.917 0.083
VRN_012211P2.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 2.5 Put 304 0.11 0.1 0.11 754,005 -0.092 0.084
VRN_012211C4 VRN Jan 22 2011 4.0 Call 304 0.72 0.71 0.72 532,991 0.623 0.239
VRN_012211P4 VRN Jan 22 2011 4.0 Put 304 0.53 0.54 0.55 309,250 -0.376 0.231
VRN_012211C5 VRN Jan 22 2011 5.0 Call 304 0.37 0.36 0.37 1,962,798 0.395 0.241
VRN_012211P5 VRN Jan 22 2011 5.0 Put 304 1.18 1.18 1.2 471,632 -0.594 0.233
VRN_012211C7.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 7.5 Call 304 0.09 0.09 0.1 948,466 0.127 0.117
VRN_012211P7.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 7.5 Put 304 3.36 3.4 3.45 113,041 -0.828 0.126
VRN_012211C10 VRN Jan 22 2011 10.0 Call 304 0.04 0.03 0.04 566,775 0.051 0.054
VRN_012211P10 VRN Jan 22 2011 10.0 Put 304 5.85 5.85 5.9 28,300 -0.872 0.084
WRV_012112C1 WRV Jan 21 2012 1.0 Call 668 3.25 3.2 3.25 26,960 0.975 0.014
WRV_012112P1 WRV Jan 21 2012 1.0 Put 668 0.05 0.04 0.05 38,808 -0.022 0.013
WRV_012112C2.5 WRV Jan 21 2012 2.5 Call 668 2 1.99 2 196,442 0.864 0.074
WRV_012112P2.5 WRV Jan 21 2012 2.5 Put 668 0.27 0.27 0.28 382,388 -0.134 0.075
WRV_012112C4 WRV Jan 21 2012 4.0 Call 668 1.11 1.1 1.11 165,127 0.658 0.143
WRV_012112P4 WRV Jan 21 2012 4.0 Put 668 0.87 0.86 0.88 38,760 -0.342 0.142
WRV_012112C5 WRV Jan 21 2012 5.0 Call 668 0.75 0.74 0.75 818,540 0.513 0.158
WRV_012112P5 WRV Jan 21 2012 5.0 Put 668 1.5 1.5 1.51 128,348 -0.482 0.155
WRV_012112C7.5 WRV Jan 21 2012 7.5 Call 668 0.33 0.33 0.34 469,983 0.277 0.128
WRV_012112P7.5 WRV Jan 21 2012 7.5 Put 668 3.55 3.55 3.6 41,484 -0.697 0.126
VRN_012211C5 VRN Jan 22 2011 5.0 Call 304 0.37 0.36 0.37 1,962,798 0.395 0.241
VRN_012211C7.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 7.5 Call 304 0.09 0.09 0.1 948,466 0.127 0.117
Happy Trading...
Symbol Description Days To Expiration Last Bid Ask Open Interest Delta Gamma
C_052210C3 C May 22 2010 3.0 Call 59 1.18 1.16 1.19 2,565 0.952 0.115
C_052210P3 C May 22 2010 3.0 Put 59 0.02 0.02 0.03 1,691 -0.058 0.125
C_052210C4 C May 22 2010 4.0 Call 59 0.35 0.34 0.35 15,059 0.627 0.573
C_052210P4 C May 22 2010 4.0 Put 59 0.2 0.19 0.2 39,482 -0.375 0.556
C_052210C5 C May 22 2010 5.0 Call 59 0.07 0.06 0.07 23,749 0.175 0.345
C_052210P5 C May 22 2010 5.0 Put 59 0.91 0.9 0.92 606 -0.818 0.345
C_052210C6 C May 22 2010 6.0 Call 59 0.02 0.01 0.02 216 0.046 0.113
C_052210P6 C May 22 2010 6.0 Put 59 1.85 1.85 1.88 0 -0.93 0.14
C_052210C7 C May 22 2010 7.0 Call 59 0 0 0.02 0 0.027 0.059
C_052210P7 C May 22 2010 7.0 Put 59 2.83 2.85 2.87 0 -0.948 0.087
C_061910C2 C Jun 19 2010 2.0 Call 87 2.18 2.14 2.16 40,417 1 0.002
C_061910P2 C Jun 19 2010 2.0 Put 87 0.01 0 0.01 53,131 -0.01 0.018
C_061910C3 C Jun 19 2010 3.0 Call 87 1.18 1.17 1.18 190,809 0.956 0.109
C_061910P3 C Jun 19 2010 3.0 Put 87 0.03 0.02 0.03 518,068 -0.058 0.124
C_061910C4 C Jun 19 2010 4.0 Call 87 0.39 0.39 0.4 945,952 0.62 0.484
C_061910P4 C Jun 19 2010 4.0 Put 87 0.24 0.24 0.25 430,336 -0.382 0.466
C_061910C5 C Jun 19 2010 5.0 Call 87 0.11 0.1 0.11 659,428 0.226 0.339
C_061910P5 C Jun 19 2010 5.0 Put 87 0.93 0.95 0.96 82,793 -0.759 0.334
C_061910C6 C Jun 19 2010 6.0 Call 87 0.03 0.03 0.04 95,216 0.083 0.152
C_061910P6 C Jun 19 2010 6.0 Put 87 1.86 1.87 1.89 4,705 -0.898 0.165
C_061910C7 C Jun 19 2010 7.0 Call 87 0.01 0.01 0.02 28,102 0.037 0.072
C_061910P7 C Jun 19 2010 7.0 Put 87 2.98 2.85 2.88 458 -0.931 0.101
C_091810C2 C Sep 18 2010 2.0 Call 178 2.2 2.16 2.18 10,583 0.987 0.023
C_091810P2 C Sep 18 2010 2.0 Put 178 0.03 0.01 0.02 14,752 -0.021 0.03
C_091810C3 C Sep 18 2010 3.0 Call 178 1.25 1.25 1.26 62,911 0.884 0.147
C_091810P3 C Sep 18 2010 3.0 Put 178 0.1 0.09 0.1 240,351 -0.121 0.148
C_091810C4 C Sep 18 2010 4.0 Call 178 0.56 0.55 0.56 170,156 0.615 0.321
C_091810P4 C Sep 18 2010 4.0 Put 178 0.41 0.4 0.41 75,115 -0.385 0.305
C_091810C5 C Sep 18 2010 5.0 Call 178 0.22 0.21 0.22 174,481 0.318 0.295
C_091810P5 C Sep 18 2010 5.0 Put 178 1.03 1.05 1.07 80,181 -0.667 0.284
C_091810C6 C Sep 18 2010 6.0 Call 178 0.1 0.09 0.1 55,905 0.159 0.186
C_091810P6 C Sep 18 2010 6.0 Put 178 1.9 1.92 1.94 6,186 -0.821 0.189
C_091810C7 C Sep 18 2010 7.0 Call 178 0.04 0.04 0.05 27,370 0.082 0.11
C_091810P7 C Sep 18 2010 7.0 Put 178 2.86 2.88 2.9 1,860 -0.878 0.128
VRN_012211C1 VRN Jan 22 2011 1.0 Call 304 3.18 3.15 3.2 25,340 0.989 0.009
VRN_012211P1 VRN Jan 22 2011 1.0 Put 304 0.02 0.01 0.02 66,786 -0.011 0.009
VRN_012211C2.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 2.5 Call 304 1.76 1.75 1.77 408,509 0.917 0.083
VRN_012211P2.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 2.5 Put 304 0.11 0.1 0.11 754,005 -0.092 0.084
VRN_012211C4 VRN Jan 22 2011 4.0 Call 304 0.72 0.71 0.72 532,991 0.623 0.239
VRN_012211P4 VRN Jan 22 2011 4.0 Put 304 0.53 0.54 0.55 309,250 -0.376 0.231
VRN_012211C5 VRN Jan 22 2011 5.0 Call 304 0.37 0.36 0.37 1,962,798 0.395 0.241
VRN_012211P5 VRN Jan 22 2011 5.0 Put 304 1.18 1.18 1.2 471,632 -0.594 0.233
VRN_012211C7.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 7.5 Call 304 0.09 0.09 0.1 948,466 0.127 0.117
VRN_012211P7.5 VRN Jan 22 2011 7.5 Put 304 3.36 3.4 3.45 113,041 -0.828 0.126
VRN_012211C10 VRN Jan 22 2011 10.0 Call 304 0.04 0.03 0.04 566,775 0.051 0.054
VRN_012211P10 VRN Jan 22 2011 10.0 Put 304 5.85 5.85 5.9 28,300 -0.872 0.084
WRV_012112C1 WRV Jan 21 2012 1.0 Call 668 3.25 3.2 3.25 26,960 0.975 0.014
WRV_012112P1 WRV Jan 21 2012 1.0 Put 668 0.05 0.04 0.05 38,808 -0.022 0.013
WRV_012112C2.5 WRV Jan 21 2012 2.5 Call 668 2 1.99 2 196,442 0.864 0.074
WRV_012112P2.5 WRV Jan 21 2012 2.5 Put 668 0.27 0.27 0.28 382,388 -0.134 0.075
WRV_012112C4 WRV Jan 21 2012 4.0 Call 668 1.11 1.1 1.11 165,127 0.658 0.143
WRV_012112P4 WRV Jan 21 2012 4.0 Put 668 0.87 0.86 0.88 38,760 -0.342 0.142
WRV_012112C5 WRV Jan 21 2012 5.0 Call 668 0.75 0.74 0.75 818,540 0.513 0.158
WRV_012112P5 WRV Jan 21 2012 5.0 Put 668 1.5 1.5 1.51 128,348 -0.482 0.155
WRV_012112C7.5 WRV Jan 21 2012 7.5 Call 668 0.33 0.33 0.34 469,983 0.277 0.128
WRV_012112P7.5 WRV Jan 21 2012 7.5 Put 668 3.55 3.55 3.6 41,484 -0.697 0.126
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
So what's going on???
So the market was looking to get rid of the uncertainty on the health-care bill. To the good side. Micron calls are still performing well. IPI is still down.
PALM is holding steady on the "we're selling" to China and 2-phones will be added to AT&T. PALM is still low on cash, need to look at the forecast for both of these events, but still short over the next few months. It is trading on lower volume each day...
COYN has been maintaining a new base on some volume lately.
Shorting the DOW, if you are to take this trade I would be conservative on the PUT premium and put an order in lower than normal to catch more upside potential in the market and look out to Jun or Sept.
The FDA Advisory Committe said the data was not sufficient for Pixantrone from CTIC, shares plummeted the last couple of days with a 36% increase today. April 23 will be the FDA ruling...
OCNF announced the builiding of 3-new ships and contracts to keep them filled... Up 11% in the after hours. Why I like them, cheap for now and when shipping recovers will be an unbelievable dividend.
Looking at April 6 DRYS calls....
Happy Trading...
PALM is holding steady on the "we're selling" to China and 2-phones will be added to AT&T. PALM is still low on cash, need to look at the forecast for both of these events, but still short over the next few months. It is trading on lower volume each day...
COYN has been maintaining a new base on some volume lately.
Shorting the DOW, if you are to take this trade I would be conservative on the PUT premium and put an order in lower than normal to catch more upside potential in the market and look out to Jun or Sept.
The FDA Advisory Committe said the data was not sufficient for Pixantrone from CTIC, shares plummeted the last couple of days with a 36% increase today. April 23 will be the FDA ruling...
OCNF announced the builiding of 3-new ships and contracts to keep them filled... Up 11% in the after hours. Why I like them, cheap for now and when shipping recovers will be an unbelievable dividend.
Looking at April 6 DRYS calls....
Happy Trading...
Saturday, March 20, 2010
Giving Back
I added the Kiva.org Banner at the top of the page. I recomend checking it out. I have made six micro-loans with 100% payback. NO, no interest this is what we are supposed to do with our money... Especially when we are making the returns we make! 100% of your money goes to the entrepreneurs.
http://www.kiva.org/lender/mark8153
Also check out Worldvision, Compassion International, Food for the Hungry, St Judes Childrens Hospital, Orphan Helpers, Special Olympics, Wounded Warriors or any organization you like!
Happy Trading...
http://www.kiva.org/lender/mark8153
Also check out Worldvision, Compassion International, Food for the Hungry, St Judes Childrens Hospital, Orphan Helpers, Special Olympics, Wounded Warriors or any organization you like!
Happy Trading...
Some Short Trade Ideas for Monday
The obvious, PALM. Short it to below $2. Buy 2.50 May Puts. Sell April /May$4 or $5 calls.
Depending on the healthcare scare or if the market sets up for a pullback, buy DIA April 106 Puts.
The fertilizers are having a pullback but this could be short lived.
Happy Trading...
Depending on the healthcare scare or if the market sets up for a pullback, buy DIA April 106 Puts.
The fertilizers are having a pullback but this could be short lived.
Happy Trading...
Friday, March 19, 2010
Friday Update
Quadruple Witching Friday turned out to be a non-event even with the short interest in the market... VIX is still complacently low and volume is drying up.
I thought today would have been weaker than it was but volume was very low across the board. Probably awaiting Sundays vote on the Health Care Bill.
In following the rules and protecting the down-side I closed out a large international fund today since we had an 8-day run-up and the fear of the bill passing over the weekend bringing a strong pull back on Monday and next week.
On some positive notes, MU calls did well if you got in and out quick. Shorting IPI was very successful, either outright or trading PUT options. Here is the IPI Bar Point Table for the last week...
Date Time Open High Low Close Volume
3/15/2010 09:30:00 31.38 31.64 30.53 31.45 2,114,705
3/16/2010 09:30:00 31.87 32.64 31.59 32.32 1,616,200
3/17/2010 09:30:00 33.02 33.03 31.29 31.52 1,215,280
3/18/2010 09:30:00 31.42 31.7299 30.27 30.72 1,445,070
3/19/2010 09:30:00 30.80 30.8599 29.78 30.04 1,157,171
I am trying to pick up Citi (C) 4 Apr calls at .10 and trade the earnings.
Shorting PALM is probably still a good move as they continue to plunge to new 52-week lows--currently below $4. I will look to pick it up sub $2.
ITMN is over $40 on strong volume.
TNK is still rising even after the dividend payout earlier this week.
For those who remember me talking about BIDU early this year at $100. It is $569 right now... AFL is over $50. UYG is almost $6.58. URE is over 8 and FAZ is below $15...
DIAmonds are holding strong at 107, buying near or at the money puts for April may be a good trade, possibly too late if the Health Bill passes but if not we are still do for a fundamental/technical correction with strong volume.
Happy Trading...
I thought today would have been weaker than it was but volume was very low across the board. Probably awaiting Sundays vote on the Health Care Bill.
In following the rules and protecting the down-side I closed out a large international fund today since we had an 8-day run-up and the fear of the bill passing over the weekend bringing a strong pull back on Monday and next week.
On some positive notes, MU calls did well if you got in and out quick. Shorting IPI was very successful, either outright or trading PUT options. Here is the IPI Bar Point Table for the last week...
Date Time Open High Low Close Volume
3/15/2010 09:30:00 31.38 31.64 30.53 31.45 2,114,705
3/16/2010 09:30:00 31.87 32.64 31.59 32.32 1,616,200
3/17/2010 09:30:00 33.02 33.03 31.29 31.52 1,215,280
3/18/2010 09:30:00 31.42 31.7299 30.27 30.72 1,445,070
3/19/2010 09:30:00 30.80 30.8599 29.78 30.04 1,157,171
I am trying to pick up Citi (C) 4 Apr calls at .10 and trade the earnings.
Shorting PALM is probably still a good move as they continue to plunge to new 52-week lows--currently below $4. I will look to pick it up sub $2.
ITMN is over $40 on strong volume.
TNK is still rising even after the dividend payout earlier this week.
For those who remember me talking about BIDU early this year at $100. It is $569 right now... AFL is over $50. UYG is almost $6.58. URE is over 8 and FAZ is below $15...
DIAmonds are holding strong at 107, buying near or at the money puts for April may be a good trade, possibly too late if the Health Bill passes but if not we are still do for a fundamental/technical correction with strong volume.
Happy Trading...
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Micron (MU) 10 April Calls did well today
The MU call was another good one yesterday. Up 34% today...
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Speculation in the PALM of your hand
PALM has been beat up bad after announcing earnings would be far below analyst expecations. Beat so bad that it hit a 52-week low today. They report Thursday after the bell. Analyist will be looking for insight into how the PRE and PIX are selling. PALM is corrently shorted over 48% which could make Friday very interesting if they report anything of substance Thursday evening driving shorts to cover if they were selling March Calls.
Palm was killed last year and made a wild run to over $18 on unveiling their new phones. Something to keep an eye on Friday!
Happy Trading...
Palm was killed last year and made a wild run to over $18 on unveiling their new phones. Something to keep an eye on Friday!
Happy Trading...
Monday, March 15, 2010
Following the rules
Nassim Taleb (trader extraordinaire) has 10 rules. Rule number eight reads: “No matter how confident, always protect the downside.”
On that note I closed out my C 5 JUN Calls at .10, it took all day but they took late in the day.
I will continue to monitor this week after the FED statement, etc and may look at ITM calls again soon.
While I like the recent can't keep the DOW down market, many indicators are pointing to caution. The VIX is at an all time low below 18, this isn't just conent but complacent. The indices are all indicating overbought and volume has still been low.
I'm staying out of anything speculative for now and will keep looking for that next trade opportunity. One is Micron (MU) 10 April Calls, could be a technical push to 11+.
Happy Trading...
On that note I closed out my C 5 JUN Calls at .10, it took all day but they took late in the day.
I will continue to monitor this week after the FED statement, etc and may look at ITM calls again soon.
While I like the recent can't keep the DOW down market, many indicators are pointing to caution. The VIX is at an all time low below 18, this isn't just conent but complacent. The indices are all indicating overbought and volume has still been low.
I'm staying out of anything speculative for now and will keep looking for that next trade opportunity. One is Micron (MU) 10 April Calls, could be a technical push to 11+.
Happy Trading...
Sunday, March 14, 2010
C Update
Closed C options Tuesday for 200%. I know the plan was to keep until earnings but it's 200%.
For those of you who got into C options Monday we did well. We then bought the 5 Jun Calls to take advantage of some time and volatility premium left on the option. We are currently down .04 and I should have known to try and get in lower in the day but it-is-what-it-is.
The markets have been experiencing some short coverign lately driving the market a little higher. Friday is options expiration Friday and it is possible that some short-covering may drive C higher.
I would recommend closing these out if you aren't playing on profits from Mondays trade at the purchase price, possiblly .01-.02 higher to cover commission. If you are trading on profits the push up towards earnings could drive some volatility our way and allow another double at .30. Achieving implicit value is a stretch at this point in time.
Happy Trading...
For those of you who got into C options Monday we did well. We then bought the 5 Jun Calls to take advantage of some time and volatility premium left on the option. We are currently down .04 and I should have known to try and get in lower in the day but it-is-what-it-is.
The markets have been experiencing some short coverign lately driving the market a little higher. Friday is options expiration Friday and it is possible that some short-covering may drive C higher.
I would recommend closing these out if you aren't playing on profits from Mondays trade at the purchase price, possiblly .01-.02 higher to cover commission. If you are trading on profits the push up towards earnings could drive some volatility our way and allow another double at .30. Achieving implicit value is a stretch at this point in time.
Happy Trading...
Airlines, driving and trading ideas
My partner and I were out of town on business this week. Upon arriving at the airport Friday we found out our flight was cancelled. Nothing new here, lots of weather in Atlanta. However, we were told that there were no flights out until Wednesday morning, 5 Days after our cancelled flight. How is this even possible, how could someone just hang out, pay for a hotel and do nothing for 5-days with no recourse from the airline (AirTran in this case). To add to this, Spring Break was just starting and there were no flights out from any of the surrounding cities within 300 miles.
We decided to rent a car and drive, 1600 miles. Now I don't know what was crazier the decision to drive or the fact that it didn't really bother us that we were about to drive 1600 miles because airlines can schedule flights appropriately and the entire airline sector has been climbing.
Long story short, and there are many twists and turns to our story is 30-hours later we arrived home, oh yeah we had a passenger that was trying to get back to the East Coast as well. Would you just ask two guys if you can drive across the country with them?
So now for the trading idea... Potash (POT) jumped on higher guidance Friday, guided earnings higher for the first quarter. Potash Corp. stated earnings would be in the range of $1.30-$1.50, well above the initial guidance of $0.70-$1.00 per share. The stock soared almost 7% on the day.
This brought Intrepid Potash (IPI) along with it. Acutally IPI jumped 3% higher than POT. With no extra news or guidance from IPI I am looking at ATM puts for April. IPI 31.53 IPI 32 PUTS 2.03 down 1.98 Friday open. Suggest looking when IPI announces next see if this is a good trade set-up for you.
Happy Trading...
We decided to rent a car and drive, 1600 miles. Now I don't know what was crazier the decision to drive or the fact that it didn't really bother us that we were about to drive 1600 miles because airlines can schedule flights appropriately and the entire airline sector has been climbing.
Long story short, and there are many twists and turns to our story is 30-hours later we arrived home, oh yeah we had a passenger that was trying to get back to the East Coast as well. Would you just ask two guys if you can drive across the country with them?
So now for the trading idea... Potash (POT) jumped on higher guidance Friday, guided earnings higher for the first quarter. Potash Corp. stated earnings would be in the range of $1.30-$1.50, well above the initial guidance of $0.70-$1.00 per share. The stock soared almost 7% on the day.
This brought Intrepid Potash (IPI) along with it. Acutally IPI jumped 3% higher than POT. With no extra news or guidance from IPI I am looking at ATM puts for April. IPI 31.53 IPI 32 PUTS 2.03 down 1.98 Friday open. Suggest looking when IPI announces next see if this is a good trade set-up for you.
Happy Trading...
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
ITMN!!!!!!!!!! Citigroup (C)
Held and sold this evening after the announcements for 153% profit!
Picked up 100 contracts of Jun 4 Calls this morning, already up 80%, holding till just before earnings!
Happy Trading...
Picked up 100 contracts of Jun 4 Calls this morning, already up 80%, holding till just before earnings!
Happy Trading...
Friday, March 5, 2010
ITMN Scores! APPL Jumps on IPAD news...
Hope you got in, either buying calls or the equity outright!!!
Now what to do, sell at 60% profit, or wait until Tuesdays Meeting and see what the outcome is.
I am currently holding a $1 trailing stop to lock in most of today's gain...
On another note have you seen APPL. The Jan 11 20 Calls are making us some serious money.
Happy trading....
Now what to do, sell at 60% profit, or wait until Tuesdays Meeting and see what the outcome is.
I am currently holding a $1 trailing stop to lock in most of today's gain...
On another note have you seen APPL. The Jan 11 20 Calls are making us some serious money.
Happy trading....
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
AAPL 2011 200 Call Update + Others
Apple is breaking 209 today and the 2011 200 Calls are now hitting the 31 mark. This was a great swing trade or for those of you with much more patience and less ADD then myself hang and buy me dinner next New Years.... in Italy!
Sold out of CROX for a quick return, I like it when I actually stick to my rules and actually make a few bucks.
ITMN broke 16 today, pull back may not be coming, welcome to the world of volatility! 15 Calls approaching 5. Open interest on far out of the money is growing!
Happy Trading
Sold out of CROX for a quick return, I like it when I actually stick to my rules and actually make a few bucks.
ITMN broke 16 today, pull back may not be coming, welcome to the world of volatility! 15 Calls approaching 5. Open interest on far out of the money is growing!
Happy Trading
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Weekend Update
Lot's going on this week:
Traded out of Quiksilver (ZQK) again for 25%.
Picked up CROX on the pullback due to news that the new CEO was leaving... This overshadowed the narrower loss on earnings report. Volume was huge and closed back above 7.
ITMN will be releasing its pre-FDA meeting documents soon, this may drive more of a pullback given the two clinical trials showed good and bad results. Not for the faint, but I am still picking up shares outright and plan to spread some cover before the report if the movement is good. Otherwise holding on to them.
Berkshire B is doing well! closed over $80.
APPL is over 204, still watching 2011 Jan 200 Calls.
XOM 2011 75$ aren't doing so well, good time to buy? or double down in my case!
Will be selling out of CBAI gain for 80+%.
Still waiting for COYN to get some attention. I still love this product, only reason I stay in. Although I could have used the loss in the 2009 TAX season...
Happy Trading!
Traded out of Quiksilver (ZQK) again for 25%.
Picked up CROX on the pullback due to news that the new CEO was leaving... This overshadowed the narrower loss on earnings report. Volume was huge and closed back above 7.
ITMN will be releasing its pre-FDA meeting documents soon, this may drive more of a pullback given the two clinical trials showed good and bad results. Not for the faint, but I am still picking up shares outright and plan to spread some cover before the report if the movement is good. Otherwise holding on to them.
Berkshire B is doing well! closed over $80.
APPL is over 204, still watching 2011 Jan 200 Calls.
XOM 2011 75$ aren't doing so well, good time to buy? or double down in my case!
Will be selling out of CBAI gain for 80+%.
Still waiting for COYN to get some attention. I still love this product, only reason I stay in. Although I could have used the loss in the 2009 TAX season...
Happy Trading!
Friday, February 26, 2010
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
30 Cent Risk, Unlimited Potential (ITMN)
I tried to pick up ITMN at 14.50 outright to cover over the next several days. I did not get in as the low for the day was 14.75. So what's one to do???
Calendar Spread between March and April. I figure the volatility is because of the March 9th meeting so using April as the back month makes sense. Currently the March 15 calls are 3.90 as of 5:54pm and the April 15 calls are 4.20. Setting up a calendar spread yields a .30 debit. To set this trade up sell the March 15 calls and buy the April 15 calls. Maximum risk is .30.
Now this only really works if ITMN is below 15 on March expiration Friday, otherwise the forward month will need to be used to cover the short if it is above 15.
Happy Trading!
Calendar Spread between March and April. I figure the volatility is because of the March 9th meeting so using April as the back month makes sense. Currently the March 15 calls are 3.90 as of 5:54pm and the April 15 calls are 4.20. Setting up a calendar spread yields a .30 debit. To set this trade up sell the March 15 calls and buy the April 15 calls. Maximum risk is .30.
Now this only really works if ITMN is below 15 on March expiration Friday, otherwise the forward month will need to be used to cover the short if it is above 15.
Happy Trading!
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Intermune March Covered Call Volatility
I am looking at ITMN again this year, those that remember last year, this made us a ton of money... Current volatility is high given the March 9 FDA discussions.
Support for ITMN is in the $10 range and with 15 Call premiums over $4 the risk of losing on this trade is very low...
Analyst have a $25 target and well over 50% belief the FDA decision will be positive.
I will be looking for a pullback to 15 or below and sell the March 15 and/or 17.50 calls. Volatility prevents a good married put strategy this time...
More to follow...
Happy Trading
Support for ITMN is in the $10 range and with 15 Call premiums over $4 the risk of losing on this trade is very low...
Analyst have a $25 target and well over 50% belief the FDA decision will be positive.
I will be looking for a pullback to 15 or below and sell the March 15 and/or 17.50 calls. Volatility prevents a good married put strategy this time...
More to follow...
Happy Trading
Friday, January 29, 2010
Diamond Profits
The last two days proved to provide significant movements in the diamonds allowing over 60% returns in a few hours. Having set buy limits from the opening price of the 102 DIA PUTS and sell limits at your profit point would have executed flawlessly both Thursday and Friday. The market likes the good news pre-market raises the futures, drives the market up within the 30-minutes opening trend and then lately as earnings are meeting or missing and revenues fall short throughout the day the market gives back all it's gains and then some. 102 PUTS could have been had at 1.75 limit and sold at 2.75 today. This is another way to make money in today's schizo market, am I up, am I down, am I up, am I down...
I chose the Put over Call strategy because I have a short-term bearish outlook. We'll see what next week brings with the companies on tap to provide earnings...
Happy trading.
I chose the Put over Call strategy because I have a short-term bearish outlook. We'll see what next week brings with the companies on tap to provide earnings...
Happy trading.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
CopSync (COYN.OB)
COYN keeps getting attention random days, today's volume was over 400K. I added more at this level and with the news of its national sales force. Yes it's only 3-people but this is a technology niche that just needs attention. Given the recent events having real-time access to mulitple databases is crucial in identifying would be criminals and terrorists. The fact that this is the communications technology keeps me interested because it could be used by anyone in the need of real-time communications utilizing current data driven systems. I would like to see a federal agency get interested!
Happy Trading...
Happy Trading...
Berkshire added to the S&P 500 (BRK.B)
I hope you got into BRK.B recently. Now just because it split doesn't add value to the stock but being added to the index makes it more favorable. Up over 8% in the after hours. This is a long term holding!
Happy Trading!
Happy Trading!
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Berkshire Split
Shareholder's voting! Looking @ 65-70 entry point
Happy Trading
--
Sent from my mobile device
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Bullish on the Emerging Markets?
I was looking at some Emerging Markets ETFs this weekend and looking at how best to protect a longer-term investment in such an ETF. I have only mentioned married puts recently on this site but the strategy is simply buy an equity and purchase a put on the same equity. Purchasing a put gives you the right to put your shares of an equity to someone else at the strike price on the expiration month you choose. Of course for this right you must pay a premium. EEM and iShares ETF is trading at 41.95 as Friday. A September $42 PUT costs $3.05 (the mid point of bid/ask) So if I am very bullish on the emerging market and believe the ETF will rise over the next seven months to greater than $45 I will have an extremely safe trade, only risking $3.05 a share. Now, I like this strategy over a Stop strategy since you don't risk being "stopped out" as I did on INTC last Friday but having the same 8% protection. Also, you can sell covered calls throughout the time period and if you do get called out you still have value in the PUT options, which could increase if the Equity/ETF starts to tank.
Well these are just ideas and I would recommend researching married puts or any other options strategy before using them in your trading...
Happy Trading.....
Well these are just ideas and I would recommend researching married puts or any other options strategy before using them in your trading...
Happy Trading.....
Friday, January 15, 2010
Morning Update
An almost hundred point down day on decent earnings news. LCC is up on an expiration day, maybe supporting my short-covering claim. INTC, which I started buying, did not buy my whole lot… yet, is down about 2% this morning. I did follow my rules and put TStop in place but still in. The charts show a slow run up after earnings so sticking this out and trusting the history.
Happy Trading!
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