SharkWater Trading  •  Semis Desk • Governance • NVDA Huang Resigns. Nvidia Trades 11 Percent Lower, Five Days From Its First Earnings Call Without Him. November 12, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Nvidia's board announced at about 8:48 AM ET today that Jensen Huang resigned as President, CEO and director, effective immediately. CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO, director Harvey C. Jones becomes the company's first-ever board chair, and Q3 results stay on November 17. NVDA was quoted at $154.68 premarket, down 10.97 percent from Wednesday's $173.73 close (aggregator quote, NOT VERIFIED), below a roughly $164 floor that held twice in 14 months. The board answered the leadership question; it did not answer the investigation, the permanent CEO, or the guide. I am not trading it before the print. What the board said, and what it left out The release, titled "NVIDIA Announces CEO Transition," makes four points. Huang is out of all three roles at once. Kress takes the interim CEO job while keeping the CFO job. Jones is named chair, a seat Nvidia has never had separate from its founder. The board will search internal and external candidates for a permanent CEO, with no timeline. Jones says the board has "full confidence in Colette and the leadership team" and expects operations, customer commitments and the roadmap to continue "without interruption." What the release does not do matters more. It gives no reason for the resignation. It does not mention the independent investigation the board opened November 8 and handed to Joon H. Kim and Wachtell Lipton on November 10. It describes no advisory or continuing role for Huang. It says nothing new about guidance. The board changed the captain. It did not say whether the hull was breached. That second answer is still with the divers. Update, November 12: The 8-K is on file (Items 5.02 and 9.01, accession 0001045810-26-000082, signed by Kress). It adds one fact: the board accepted the resignation on November 11, the night before the release. It names Jones, age 73 and a director since 1993, as chair. It says nothing about severance, equity treatment, a consulting role, a non-compete, a clawback or the investigation. It also leaves out a line Nvidia used in its 2025 and January 2026 director-resignation 8-Ks: that the departure was "not because of any disagreement with the Company." That omission does not prove a dispute. It does mean the filing gives holders no comfort on the point. Release text is as reproduced by investingLive, Tom's Hardware and Business Upturn and attached as Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K. 8-K read on sec.gov, November 12, 2026. The tape, so far Time NVDA Source Nov 11 close $173.73 Forbes, Business Upturn, NOT VERIFIED Nov 11 after hours (WSJ report) $158.78, -8.61% Forbes, NOT VERIFIED Nov 12, about 5 AM ET -5.5% premarket CNN, NOT VERIFIED Nov 12, 8:48 AM ET Resignation announced Board release (via press) Nov 12, 8:55 AM ET $154.68, -10.97% Business Upturn screen, NOT VERIFIED Premarket quotes are thin and move fast. Confirm the regular-session open on your own platform. The money moved sideways, not out. CNBC reported AMD and Broadcom up about 3 percent each premarket after the announcement, while Nasdaq-100 futures fell 1.2 percent. Traders sold the man and bought the competitors. That is a vote on leadership risk, not on AI demand, and it lines up with what CoreWeave and Nebius printed this week. The Street reset fast. Bernstein cut its target from $400 to $200, per CNBC. Wedbush's Dan Ives cut from $300 to $225, explicitly pricing Huang's exit. Those follow Baird's downgrade to Neutral and Morgan Stanley pulling NVDA as a Top Pick on November 11. These are analyst figures, reported in press, not ours. November 17 is now the whole trade Kress has run Nvidia's guidance for years, which is the best argument for her as interim. Nvidia's Q3 FY2027 outlook was revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2 percent, as cited by Yahoo Finance from the company's prior guidance. We did not re-read the August release today. The quarter closed October 25, before any of this broke, so the Q3 number itself should be clean. The Q4 guide is where the board's turmoil can show up. Three things decide that call: whether Kress gives a full Q4 guide or narrows it, whether she addresses China and export exposure given the board's own "foreign intelligence effort" language, and whether the company says anything about when the investigation reports. What we do not know The terms of Huang's exit. The 8-K is silent on severance, unvested equity, non-compete and clawback. Watch for an amended 8-K or the next 10-Q. What Huang does with a stake Reuters put near 3.6 percent, now that he is neither officer nor director. Whether the investigation finds any compromise of company information. The allegations against Huang are unproven and have been denied by China, per press reports. Options pricing into November 17. We did not pull a chain and will not estimate one. The Bull Case The binary is gone. The question that took this stock down all week now has an answer, and it came before the open instead of during the earnings call. The governance is better on paper. A separate chair and an open search are what institutional holders have asked for at founder-led companies for years. The customers did not resign. Hyperscaler and neocloud capex is reported in signed numbers, and the Q3 quarter closed before the scandal. The Bear Case Nvidia built itself around one man. Huang ran a famously flat company with dozens of direct reports and no public succession plan. Nvidia's own annual filing says it is "highly dependent" on its longstanding executives. Interim CEOs do not make big bets. Kress is also still CFO. Two jobs, one person, in the middle of an AI capex cycle and a national security probe. The investigation is still open. Lawmakers have threatened subpoenas and FBI interest has been reported. A finding that touches export-controlled technology would be a different and bigger problem than a CEO change. The chart broke. The roughly $164 level that held twice in 14 months is now overhead. The SharkWater Take I said I would look again when the board spoke and when the print gave us something to measure. Half of that happened today. I am still not trading it. Buying an 11 percent gap on day one means paying for a guide nobody has heard from a CEO nobody has heard from. Shorting it after the gap means betting against the strongest demand tape in the sector, five days before hard numbers. This is a sell-the-man day, and the order book did not resign with him. If I own Nvidia, I want to own it after Kress has stood behind a Q4 number, even at a higher price. Paying up for certainty beats saving a few dollars on a guess. Execution Notes Scenarios for November 17, not predictions. None of these are price targets. If the call shows What it means Q3 at or above $108B, full Q4 guide, clear China language The discount was about Huang, not the business. The $164 area is the first test from below. Q3 in line, Q4 guide narrowed or withheld The leadership discount turns into an earnings discount. Wait for the permanent CEO. Investigation disclosure touching export controls or customer data New problem, new post. Today's prices stop being useful as a reference. The 8-K disclosed no exit terms. If an amendment discloses a separation agreement, read the equity and non-compete language before the print. Any premium-selling idea into the print needs a live chain. We have none, so we do not show one. Watch AMD and AVGO into the print. If they keep their premarket gains, the market is treating this as a share-shift story, not an AI-cycle story. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. NVIDIA Form 8-K, accession 0001045810-26-000082, filed November 12, 2026 (sec.gov). The November 12, 2026 board release is as reproduced by investingLive, Tom's Hardware and Business Upturn; prior board statements from nvidianews.nvidia.com (Nov 8 and Nov 10, 2026). Analyst targets as reported by CNBC and Yahoo Finance. Q3 guidance as cited by Yahoo Finance, not re-read from the issuer. Price moves are from press and aggregator screens and are marked NOT VERIFIED. Allegations against Huang are unproven. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Space Desk • Q3 Prints Rocket Lab Prints $268 Million and Slips Neutron. AST SpaceMobile Prints $42 Million and Carries $4 Billion of Debt. November 10, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB) reported Q3 revenue of $267.8 million, up 72.7 percent from $155.1 million, guided Q4 to $270 million to $290 million, and moved first Neutron launch to no earlier than 2027. AST SpaceMobile (Nasdaq: ASTS) reported Q3 revenue of $42.3 million against a net loss of $171.8 million before noncontrolling interest, with long-term debt of $4.08 billion. One company is selling hardware at scale. The other is still selling a schedule. Both figures are from the November 9, 2026 8-K exhibits on EDGAR. Rocket Lab: the revenue is real, the cash pile is a funding story Q3 2026 revenue was $267,834 thousand against $155,080 thousand a year earlier. GAAP net loss widened to $79.7 million, or $0.12 a share, from $18.3 million. Backlog sits near $3.57 billion, up 52 percent since the end of Q2, with 117 launches on the books and 16 Neutron missions. Cash and equivalents were $4.45 billion on September 30, 2026, versus $828.7 million at year end 2025. That jump is not operating cash. The release ties it to a completed at-the-market equity program that funds the pending Iridium Communications acquisition. The cash is spoken for. A full tank on a boat is not the same as fuel to cross the bay. This tank is already earmarked for a different trip. Metric RKLB ASTS Q3 2026 revenue $267.8M $42.3M Q3 2025 revenue $155.1M $14.7M Q3 2026 net loss (GAAP) $79.7M $171.8M ($132.4M to common) Cash, Sept 30, 2026 $4.45B (earmarked for Iridium) $3.2B incl. $434.6M restricted Long-term debt, net $1.3M converts $4.08B Forward marker Q4 guide $270M to $290M Guide $150M to $200M (period not confirmed in text read) Source: RKLB 8-K Ex. 99.1 and ASTS 8-K Ex. 99.1/99.2, both dated November 9, 2026, on SEC EDGAR. Both pages were truncated at fetch; the RKLB adjusted EBITDA reconciliation and ASTS cash flow detail are NOT VERIFIED and omitted here. Neutron slides to 2027 The release says first launch is "now targeted for no earlier than 2027." Hardware is reported delivered to Launch Complex 3. The backlog still carries 16 Neutron missions after more than $515 million of Neutron contracts in Q3, several priced at a $70 million base launch price. Customers are signing for a rocket that has not flown. A slip pushes the revenue, not the contracts. AST SpaceMobile: the open question stayed open BlueBirds 1 through 6 and 8 through 13 are in orbit. BlueBirds 14 through 16 are at Cape Canaveral awaiting a SpaceX date. BlueBirds 17 through 19 ship by end of November for a Blue Origin launch expected in early Q1 2027. Management targets about 45 satellites in orbit by mid 2027 and a production rate of six per month in December. What the exhibits do not say: how the $400 million cash payment in the Firefly engine-license deal gets funded. Firefly appears only in the forward-looking statements as a proposed transaction. We read both exhibits for it and found no funding language. Blacklift, the 20-ton rocket, is guided to start in late 2028. The Bull Case RKLB growth is bookings-backed. Revenue up 72.7 percent and backlog up 52 percent in a quarter. ASTS is in manufacturing mode. Twelve BlueBirds in orbit, six a month targeted, over 100 satellites under launch agreements for 2027 to 2028. Q4 guide steps up. RKLB guides $270 million to $290 million against $267.8 million in Q3. The Bear Case RKLB losses are widening. GAAP net loss went from $18.3 million to $79.7 million while the flagship rocket slipped again. ASTS leverage is heavy. $4.08 billion of long-term debt against $42.3 million of quarterly revenue. Launch dependence. ASTS satellites sit on the ground waiting for third-party dates. The SharkWater Take I trust the RKLB print more than the RKLB stock reaction. The business is delivering, but the Neutron date keeps slipping and the cash is committed to Iridium. For ASTS I want the funding answer for the Firefly payment before I give the story any credit. Debt at about 96 times quarterly revenue is a financing thesis wearing a telecom badge. I would rather watch both from the dock until the 10-Q and the next call fill in what these releases left out. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Semis Desk • Governance Nvidia's Board Hires Wachtell to Investigate Its CEO. Earnings Land in Six Days. November 11, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front On November 8, 2026, Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) said its board opened an independent investigation after reporting that CEO Jensen Huang "has been the target of a foreign intelligence effort." On November 10 the independent directors named their investigator: former acting SDNY U.S. Attorney Joon H. Kim and Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. The board says it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, and it set no deadline. Market recaps put the stock down about 4 percent overnight Sunday and 5.47 percent on Tuesday (aggregator figures, NOT VERIFIED). The Q3 call is November 17. The tape now has to price a quarter and a governance question in the same week. What the company actually said Two statements sit on Nvidia's own newsroom. The first, dated November 8 and issued by the board, says a committee of independent directors, assisted by outside counsel, will oversee the review. It says the board has confidence in Huang and his team, that Huang supports the review and will cooperate, and that the board "will provide further updates as appropriate." The second, dated November 10 and issued by the independent members of the board, is one paragraph. It names Kim and Wachtell. It says nothing about leadership changes, CEO duties, or the earnings schedule. Neither statement names the directors on the committee. When the harbor master calls in the Coast Guard, the boat has not sunk. But nobody leaves the dock until the inspection is done. Date Event Source Nov 8, 2026 Board opens independent investigation; committee of independent directors plus outside counsel Nvidia newsroom Nov 8, 2026 Stock down about 4.24% in overnight trading Fortune, NOT VERIFIED Nov 10, 2026 Independent directors retain Joon H. Kim and Wachtell Lipton Nvidia newsroom Nov 10, 2026 Stock down 5.47% in regular session, second straight decline Market recap, NOT VERIFIED Nov 17, 2026 Q3 FY2027 results call Nvidia call notice, Oct 28 (date as carried; notice not re-read today) Price moves come from press and market-recap reporting, not exchange data. Confirm closes against your own platform before acting on them. No 8-K for either statement was confirmed this morning; EDGAR was not reachable from this desk. Why the hire matters more than the headlines Boards that want a quick clean bill of health hire their regular outside firm. This board went to Wachtell and a former SDNY prosecutor within 48 hours. That reads as a board building a record that can survive scrutiny from regulators and shareholders, not one trying to make the story disappear by the weekend. That cuts both ways. A serious process is the best way to close the question. It is also a process with no end date, and it runs straight into the most-watched earnings print in the market. Expect the Q3 call to be asked about the investigation, and expect management to say it cannot comment on a pending review. What we do not know Which directors sit on the committee, and whether a lead independent director has taken on any added role. Whether any U.S. agency has opened its own inquiry. The board statements do not mention one. Whether Nvidia furnished either statement on an 8-K. Not confirmed this morning. What the options market is pricing into November 17. We did not pull a chain and will not estimate one. The Bull Case The board moved fast and loud. Two public statements in three days and a heavyweight investigator are what a board does when it expects to be able to show its work. No compromise found so far. The board says it has no reason to believe national security or Nvidia secrets were compromised. The business reports on schedule. November 17 gives the market hard numbers to weigh against a governance headline. The Bear Case Key-person risk is now explicit. Nvidia is a founder-led company. An open-ended review of the founder is a risk the market cannot size. China is the sore spot. The board's own wording puts a foreign intelligence effort at the center, on a company already living under export controls. No timeline. "Further updates as appropriate" means the overhang can outlast the earnings reaction. The SharkWater Take I am not going to trade a headline I cannot size. The quarter is knowable on November 17. The investigation is not knowable on any date the board has given us. That mismatch is the whole setup: a good print can lift the stock and still leave the overhang in place, and a soft print now has a second excuse to sell. I would rather let the call and the first options reaction show me how much of the drop is governance and how much is the macro tape, then decide. Patience costs nothing here. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. Company statements sourced from nvidianews.nvidia.com (Nov 8 and Nov 10, 2026). Price moves are from press reporting and are marked NOT VERIFIED. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Drone Desk • Watchlist Launch Seven Drone Names Join the Watchlist. Three of Them Report in Six Days. November 11, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front SharkWater now tracks a dedicated drone and autonomy group: AVEX, ONDS, RCAT, KTOS, ACHR, AVAV and JEDI. The whole basket was green on our November 11 screen, led by AEVEX at $12.28, up 5.86 percent, after a swing week where the group rallied Monday and sold off Tuesday together. The calendar is the story: AEVEX reports tonight after the close, Ondas is slated for November 12, and Red Cat reports November 16. Kratos (record $2.65 billion backlog) and AeroVironment ($315 million initial award on a $940 million IDIQ) already showed their hands. The names with signed paper moved least. The names still promising paper moved most. The new group, as of this morning's screen Ticker What it is Mark Chg Next catalyst AVEX AEVEX Corp. Phoenix Ghost loitering munitions. NYSE IPO Apr 17, 2026 at $20 $12.28 +5.86% Q3 results tonight, Nov 11 after close; call 5:00 pm ET ONDS Ondas. Counter-UAS and strike-drone roll-up $5.89 +5.75% Q3 results Nov 12 (date NOT VERIFIED against issuer) RCAT Red Cat. Black Widow small recon drone, Teal Drones $4.40 +4.51% Q3 results Nov 16 after close KTOS Kratos. Valkyrie, engines, hypersonics, space $37.76 +2.83% Reported Nov 5; FY27 budget timing ACHR Archer. Midnight eVTOL plus defense propulsion $4.84 +2.70% Boeing unit deal close (Wisk, Insitu, SkyGrid) AVAV AeroVironment. Switchblade, Puma, BlueHalo $126.14 +2.14% Orders against the new $940M IDIQ JEDI Defiance Drone & Modern Warfare ETF (NYSE Arca) $21.65 +1.36% Basket read on all of the above Marks and changes are from the SharkWater broker watchlist screen captured November 11, 2026. The screen shows no timestamp and several names carry 24-hour session quotes, so treat these as a snapshot, not closing prices. Catalyst dates from issuer releases unless marked. The prints already on the board Kratos (Nasdaq: KTOS) reported November 5. Q3 revenue was $471.8 million, up 35.7 percent, with 23.2 percent organic growth. Bookings hit $1.037 billion for a 2.2 to 1 book-to-bill, and backlog climbed to $2.650 billion from $2.084 billion at the end of Q2. The catch sits in the guidance: management built in a continuing resolution running into the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Unmanned Systems revenue actually fell year over year, to $74.6 million, because Q3 2025 included a $16.1 million Valkyrie shipment. AeroVironment (Nasdaq: AVAV) announced a multiyear IDIQ on November 9 with a $940 million ceiling and an initial award of about $315 million for product deliveries and support. The customer and program are withheld under OPSEC rules. The initial award is roughly one third of the ceiling (DERIVED BY SHARKWATER). The rest is a fishing license, not a catch: the company's own safe-harbor language says the ceiling may never produce orders beyond the first award. Archer (NYSE: ACHR) reported November 9 per its 8-K: Q3 revenue $5.1 million, net loss $274.6 million, adjusted EBITDA loss $178.5 million. Cash, equivalents and short-term investments fell $207 million in the quarter to $1.354 billion. Q4 guidance calls for an adjusted EBITDA loss of $185 million to $205 million. The drone angle is real but small today: Archer delivered its first engines to Anduril's Omen program in Q3, and the pending Boeing deal brings in Insitu, a Group 2 and 3 UAS maker. This group swims like a school of baitfish. One flinch and all seven turn at once. The ones with weight in the water, Kratos and AeroVironment, turn last and least. The prints still coming AEVEX (NYSE: AVEX), tonight. The company's October 22 release sets Q3 results after the close today with a 5:00 pm ET call. AEVEX is one of the few names here that books profit: Q2 revenue was $201.8 million, up 99.5 percent, with net income of $6.7 million. At $12.28 it sits about 39 percent below its $20 IPO price (DERIVED BY SHARKWATER). Watch backlog coverage. On the Q2 call it slipped to 71 percent of the 2026 revenue midpoint from 82 percent in Q1, per a call summary (NOT VERIFIED against the transcript). Ondas (Nasdaq: ONDS), November 12. Ondas announced a new Digital Bat tactical attack drone purchase order on November 10 and has a planned ARAN Defense acquisition to add production capacity. Recaps put Q3 revenue guidance at $140 million to $155 million against $83.8 million in Q2, which would be about 76 percent sequential growth at the midpoint, and short interest near 40 percent (both NOT VERIFIED against issuer filings). That is a tall bar and a crowded short in the same room. Red Cat (Nasdaq: RCAT), November 16. Confirmed by the company's October 26 release, with a 4:30 pm ET webinar. The last reaffirmed FY2026 revenue target was $150 million to $180 million (recap, NOT VERIFIED). The stock trades at a fraction of where that target was set. Monday tells us whether the target survives. JEDI is the wrapper for the whole theme. The Defiance fund launched September 25, 2025, tracks the BITA Drone & Modern Warfare Select Index, and deliberately excludes legacy primes. Defiance's own fund page showed a 30-day SEC yield of negative 0.54 percent as of April 30, 2026. Expense ratio is listed at 0.69 percent on aggregator pages (NOT VERIFIED against the prospectus fee table). The Bull Case Demand is showing up in backlog, not just headlines. Kratos grew backlog 27 percent in one quarter (DERIVED BY SHARKWATER) and AeroVironment just landed a nine-figure initial award. Profitable comparables exist now. AEVEX and Kratos give the group a valuation floor that pure story stocks never had. Prices are already beaten down. AEVEX is well below its IPO and Red Cat is a fraction of its 52-week high. Good prints land on low expectations. The Bear Case The budget clock. Kratos is guiding on a continuing resolution. Every name here sells mostly to the same customer, and delayed appropriations push orders to the right. Ceilings are not revenue. IDIQ ceilings and purchase orders announced before earnings are marketing numbers until they convert. Cash burn and dilution. Archer burned $207 million in a quarter. Ondas and Red Cat are funding ramps with equity. Rate-hike fears hit exactly this kind of balance sheet first. The SharkWater Take This basket trades as one sentiment fund, and that is the opportunity. When seven names move together on a Monday and reverse together on a Tuesday, the market is not reading contracts. It is reading the mood. Tonight's AEVEX print is the cleanest test of the week because it is a profitable company at a discounted price with no squeeze dynamics. If AEVEX prints well and the group still fades, the tape is telling me sentiment, not fundamentals, is in charge, and I stay out of ONDS into a crowded short. If AEVEX prints well and holds, the quality names (KTOS, AVAV, AVEX) deserve the next look, not the lottery tickets. I am not chasing anything ahead of the three prints. Data Gaps Prices come from a broker screenshot with no timestamp. No exchange closes were verified. EDGAR was not checked for any of the seven names on this run. Ondas guidance, Red Cat targets and short interest come from press recaps. Ondas has not been confirmed on its own site for the November 12 date in the sources read. One recap cited a "record $3 billion" Kratos backlog. The company release says $2.650 billion. We use the release. One recap put Archer's cash at $785.1 million. The 8-K shows $1,353.6 million including short-term investments. We use the 8-K. JEDI holdings, AUM and premium/discount were not pulled from the Defiance fund page. No options chains were pulled for any name. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. Sources: Kratos Q3 2026 release (GlobeNewswire, Nov 5, 2026); AeroVironment IDIQ release (Business Wire, Nov 9, 2026); Archer Q3 2026 8-K exhibit (SEC, Nov 9, 2026); AEVEX Q3 date release (Oct 22, 2026) and Q2 2026 release; Red Cat Q3 date release (GlobeNewswire, Oct 26, 2026); Defiance JEDI fund page and SEC 497K. Items marked NOT VERIFIED come from press recaps. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Space Desk • ASTS and FLY AST SpaceMobile Buys Its Own Rocket Engine License From Firefly for $800 Million November 7, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) said on November 6, 2026 that it will build its own 20-ton reusable rocket, Blacklift, on engines licensed from Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ: FLY). The license costs about $800 million upfront: $400 million in cash plus 10 to 14 million Class A shares priced off a forward VWAP. A supply deal adds $250 million for engines on the first three launches and $250 million for three years of engineering support. The total is $1.3 billion, which matches Firefly's headline. The release names no financing source for ASTS and gives no price for the shares. Both gaps close in the next six days: Firefly reports Tuesday, and ASTS unveils the rocket Thursday. What the 8-K Exhibit Says The source is Exhibit 99.1 to an AST SpaceMobile Form 8-K, datelined Midland, Texas, November 6, 2026. AST will build a reusable launch vehicle to put up to five BlueBird satellites per flight, starting in late 2028. The company calls it the final step of its end-to-end vertical integration. Outside launch contracts for more than 100 BlueBird satellites between 2027 and 2028 stay in place. Piece of the deal Amount Terms as filed Engine license (Miranda and Vira) about $800M upfront $400M cash plus 10 to 14M Class A shares, set by forward VWAP Engine supply $250M Engines for the first three Blacklift launches Engineering services $250M Over three years Total (my arithmetic) $1,300M Firefly headline: more than $1.3 billion Source: AST SpaceMobile 8-K Exhibit 99.1, dated Nov 6, 2026. The $400M share value is implied by subtracting cash from the $800M total. The exhibit gives no per-share price, so the dollar value of the shares is not determinable from it. Firefly's own release body was not read; only its headline was seen on its investor page. The Part the Release Skips The exhibit does not say how ASTS pays the $400 million in cash, and it does not mention a capital raise. I could not find a primary source that does. The only equity element in the document is the 10 to 14 million shares handed to Firefly. Treat anything you read about a larger raise as unconfirmed until it shows up in a filing. Timing matters too. First launch of Blacklift is late 2028. Satellites that need to fly in 2027 and 2028 ride on other companies' rockets. The new rocket does not help the near-term deployment schedule. It is the difference between chartering a boat and buying the shipyard. Owning the yard ends the dependence on other captains, but the first hull does not float for two years. Why the Date Stack Matters Date Event Source Mon Nov 9 Rocket Lab earnings, carried from earlier scans Not re-verified today Tue Nov 10, 5:00 PM ET Firefly Q3 2026 results call Firefly investor page Thu Nov 12 ASTS unveils Blacklift in New York, webcast ASTS 8-K exhibit Thu Nov 12 Nebius Q3 results, call 8:00 AM ET Nebius release, Oct 30 Dates as listed on the issuers' own pages when read on Nov 7, 2026. Firefly's call lands first. The question for that call is how much of the $400 million cash and the $500 million of supply and services is recurring revenue versus a one-time license payment. A perpetual license is paid once. The supply and services lines are the only parts that repeat. Market Backdrop Friday was a repair day. Per CBS News (updated 4:32 PM EST, press report, not exchange data), the S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent to 7,377, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1 percent and the Dow fell 0.5 percent. The October jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs against an estimate of 65,000, with unemployment at 4.1 percent, per Fox Business and CBS. The Cboe VIX read 25.64 on its November 6 page stamped 9:15 PM ET, down 9.01 percent from a 28.18 prior close. I could not verify how ASTS or FLY traded on the news. The Bull Case Control of launch. ASTS owns a perpetual engine license and a dedicated engine plant, which removes a bottleneck on its own constellation. Real money for Firefly. $400 million cash upfront plus $500 million of contracted supply and services is hard revenue, not a memorandum of understanding. Dilution is capped on paper. The share component is 10 to 14 million Class A shares, a stated range rather than an open-ended issuance. The Bear Case Unfunded cash outlay. No financing source is named for the $400 million cash plus $500 million of supply and services. Late and unproven. First Blacklift flight is late 2028 and it adds a rocket program to a company still deploying satellites. Value is unpriced. The VWAP formula leaves the real cost of the share component unknown until it settles. The SharkWater Take On the paper alone, Firefly got the better deal. It collects cash now and keeps a revenue line for three years, while ASTS signs up for a rocket program that cannot fly until late 2028 and names no way to pay for it. I am not taking a side on either stock this weekend. I do not know how either one traded Friday, and I do not know where the $400 million comes from. If Firefly's call and the Thursday unveiling answer the funding question, I will revisit. If they dodge it, the vertical integration story is a bill with no payer. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. No options chain was pulled for this post, so no premiums are quoted. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.