SharkWater Trading  •  Semiconductor Desk • Wolfspeed Wolfspeed Ran Again. Volume Tripled, and the Reason Is Still Secondhand. October 3, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Wolfspeed (NYSE: WOLF) closed Friday, October 2, 2026 at $35.00, up 12.29 percent on 6.81 million shares, about 3.0 times its 20-day average of 2.27 million (the average is dated October 1 and may include that day). Two sessions have now added 24.4 percent from the September 30 close of $28.13 (StockAnalysis, aggregator, NOT VERIFIED). I still found no 8-K and no named customer. Secondary outlets credit a semiconductor rotation and a 200 mm substrate release. The rotation story has a hole in it: Micron fell 2.05 percent the same day. I am still not chasing this. What Moved WOLF opened Friday at $32.35, a gap of 3.8 percent over Thursday's $31.17 close. It ran to $36.49, dropped to $31.62, and finished at $35.00, $1.49 under the high. Friday's volume was nearly double Thursday's 3.11 million. Session Close Change Volume (shares) Sep 29 $28.13 +1.99% 2.04M Sep 30 $28.13 flat 4.08M Oct 1 $31.17 +10.81% 3.11M Oct 2 (open $32.35, high $36.49, low $31.62) $35.00 +12.29% 6.81M Source: StockAnalysis price history, an aggregator. NOT VERIFIED against an exchange or issuer source. Read October 3, 2026. One data conflict. A Korean aggregator (JKN) reports a Friday close of $36.25, up 16.30 percent. StockAnalysis shows $35.00 and 12.29 percent. I cannot reconcile the two from a primary source, so I use the lower print and flag the gap. A US outlet (Kalkine) published an intraday read of $34.78, up 11.58 percent, which fits StockAnalysis better. The Explanation Going Around Kalkine, dated October 2, 2026, names two causes. The first is investors rotating into semiconductors after Micron reported blockbuster results. The second is the company's premium 200 mm silicon carbide substrate release. Neither is a filing. JKN adds "relative value" buying after a long slide. Check the rotation claim against the tape. Micron moved +3.03 percent on October 1, the session after its results. On October 2 it fell 2.05 percent to $1,074.89. NVIDIA rose 1.34 percent and Broadcom rose 3.35 percent. WOLF rose 12.29 percent. A Micron-led rotation does not explain a Friday move in a stock that made its biggest gain while Micron went the other way. Substrate and silicon carbide are a different supply chain from memory. When one boat in the fleet is hauling nets and the rest are drifting, the tide is not the reason. Somebody found fish. The same Kalkine piece carries the cold water. It puts the stock 57 percent below a 52-week high of $80.82, above the analyst targets it cites of $25 to $27.50, with revenue down 24 percent year over year last quarter. Those are third-party figures, not mine, and I have not checked them against the 10-Q. The Bull Case Momentum with participation. Two up sessions, the second on about three times average volume. A sector that is working. NVIDIA and Broadcom both rose Friday, and VIX read 15.31, down 6.59 percent on the day (Cboe, October 2, 2026). Risk appetite is not the constraint. A concrete product claim. An orderable 200 mm premium substrate with dedicated capacity, per the company's own release. The Bear Case Still no primary catalyst. No filing, customer or order size found, and EDGAR was not directly queryable in this run. A 24 percent two-day run. The stock now sits above the sell-side targets cited by the outlet that explained the move. The cause does not fit the tape. The rotation story depends on Micron, and Micron fell on the day WOLF made its largest gain. The SharkWater Take I stay out. A stock that jumps 24 percent in two sessions on a story the tape contradicts has not earned a position from me. If a filing or a named customer surfaces, I reopen the file. If the stock gives back the gap with no news, that tells me the buyers had no story either. I can say what the chart did. I cannot tell you why, and neither can anyone quoting a rotation that Micron sat out. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. Price and volume figures come from an aggregator and are NOT VERIFIED. Cause attribution comes from secondary outlets and is unconfirmed. EDGAR was not directly queryable this run, so the absence of a filing is not confirmed. VIX is from the Cboe site as read on October 3, 2026. No options data was pulled or computed. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Semiconductor Desk • Tape Without a Story Wolfspeed Jumped 10.8 Percent. I Cannot Find the Reason. October 2, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Wolfspeed (NYSE: WOLF) closed October 1, 2026 at $31.17, up 10.81 percent from $28.13, on 3.11 million shares against a 20-day average of 2.27 million, about 1.4 times (StockAnalysis, aggregator, NOT VERIFIED). I found no 8-K, no earnings event and no dated company release inside that window. The only recent company item I could read is a product release on its own site, dated September 27, 2026 as the page shows it. A move this size with no sourced cause is a tape signal, not a thesis. I am not chasing it. What Moved WOLF opened October 1 at $28.72, a gap of about 2.1 percent over the prior close. It ran to a high of $31.39, touched a low of $28.03, and closed at $31.17, within 22 cents of the high. After-hours showed $31.31. The same page listed no news dated October 1 or 2. Session Close Change Volume (shares) Sep 29 $28.13 +1.99% 2.04M Sep 30 $28.13 not shown 4.08M Oct 1 (open $28.72, high $31.39, low $28.03) $31.17 +10.81% 3.11M Source: StockAnalysis price history, an aggregator. NOT VERIFIED against an exchange or issuer source. Read on October 2, 2026. Volume ran ahead of price. September 30 traded 4.08 million shares, about 1.8 times the same average, while the stock closed flat at $28.13. The change cell for that day was blank on the source page. Someone was active a session early. I cannot say who. The Only Company Item Wolfspeed's own site carries a release headlined "Wolfspeed Expands 200 mm Silicon Carbide Portfolio with New Premium Power Substrates." The page shows a September 27, 2026 date, which is a Sunday, so I treat the date as unconfirmed. The company says the substrate has fewer than 0.01 micropipes per square centimeter, is orderable immediately, and comes with dedicated capacity. Those are the company's own claims. The release names no customer, no order size and no revenue figure. A product spec sheet moved a stock 10.8 percent four sessions after it was posted? I do not buy that as the whole story. It may be part of it. Baitfish breaking the surface tell you something is feeding below. They do not tell you what, and they do not tell you if it is still there. The Bull Case Strength held into the close. The stock finished within 22 cents of its high and showed a higher print after hours. Volume confirmed. Volume exceeded the average on the day and on the session before it. A tangible product. An orderable 200 mm premium substrate with dedicated capacity is a concrete commercial step, as the company describes it. The Bear Case No sourced catalyst. I found no filing, earnings event or named customer behind the move. Volume was modest. About 1.4 times average is not a capitulation or a squeeze signature, and the average may already include October 1. Unexplained gaps retrace. A move with no story gives buyers nothing to hold onto when the next seller shows up. The SharkWater Take I stay out. I trade stories I can source, and this one has a chart and a mystery. If a primary filing or a named customer shows up, I reopen the file. Until then the question is not whether WOLF can run further. It is who was buying on September 30 and why they were early. I cannot answer that from public pages, and neither can the aggregators that will explain it to you by tonight. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. Price and volume figures come from an aggregator and are NOT VERIFIED. The company release was read through an automated page reader. EDGAR was not directly queryable this run, so the absence of a filing is not confirmed. No options data was pulled or computed. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Semiconductor Desk • Earnings Micron Printed $54 Billion. The Pre-Market Shrugged. October 1, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Micron (Nasdaq: MU) reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion on September 30, 2026, against $11.32 billion a year earlier and $41.46 billion in the prior quarter (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1). It guided fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue to $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin near 86.25 percent versus 87.0 percent printed. The stock closed September 30 at $1,065.11, before the release, and an aggregator showed it about 0.6 percent lower pre-market on October 1. A quadrupling of revenue produced a shrug so far. That tells you what was in the price. The Print Micron reported after the close on September 30. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion is 4.8 times the year-ago quarter and 30.8 percent above the prior quarter. GAAP net income was $37.70 billion, or $32.87 per diluted share. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was $33.42. The board declared a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, payable October 29, 2026. Metric FQ4 FY25 FQ3 FY26 FQ4 FY26 FQ1 FY27 guide Revenue $11.32B $41.46B $54.23B $61.5B +/- $1.5B GAAP diluted EPS NOT IN EXCERPT NOT IN EXCERPT $32.87 $37.84 +/- $1.00 Non-GAAP diluted EPS NOT IN EXCERPT NOT IN EXCERPT $33.42 $38.15 +/- $1.00 Non-GAAP gross margin NOT IN EXCERPT NOT IN EXCERPT 87.0% ~86.25% GAAP gross margin NOT IN EXCERPT NOT IN EXCERPT 86.8% ~85.95% Source: Micron Technology Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 press release dated September 30, 2026 (sec.gov). Figures were extracted from the filing by an automated page reader, not hand-checked line by line. Cells marked NOT IN EXCERPT were not returned by the read. The Guide Is the Story The guided midpoint of $61.5 billion is 13.4 percent above the quarter just reported. Sequential growth was 30.8 percent in the quarter that closed and is guided to less than half that pace. The guided non-GAAP gross margin of about 86.25 percent sits 0.75 points below the 87.0 percent printed. Both are my arithmetic on the filed figures. Neither is a miss against a consensus number, because I did not pull a sourced consensus and will not quote one. Price action (StockAnalysis, aggregator, NOT VERIFIED): MU closed September 30 at $1,065.11, before the release, on 30.8 million shares, against a 31.3 million-share 20-day average read on September 29, about 0.98x. Pre-market on October 1 it showed $1,059.00, down 0.57 percent. The same page said Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD and Intel traded higher pre-market. I did not verify those moves. A boat that has already caught the limit does not get more fish from a bigger net. It gets a heavier haul to carry in. The Bull Case Demand visibility. The release credits strategic customer agreements for demand visibility, and the guide calls for another $7 billion or so of quarterly revenue. Cash returns exist. A dividend is declared and a $650 million buyback figure appears for the fiscal year. Neither is large against $37.70 billion of quarterly GAAP net income. The reaction was muted, not negative. A pre-market dip of about half a percent after a print this large is not a sell-the-news rout. The cash session is still untested. The Bear Case Deceleration is guided. Sequential growth is guided from 30.8 percent to about 13.4 percent at the midpoint. Margin rolls over. A guided gross margin below the printed level is the first step down from a peak, if it is one. Capex is heavy. Net capital spending was $10.77 billion in the quarter and $27.37 billion for fiscal 2026, per the release as read. Memory is a cyclical business, and cycles end when supply arrives. The SharkWater Take I would not chase this. A stock that shrugs at a 4.8x revenue print has already priced the cycle at its widest point, and the guide shows the rate of change slowing even while the level rises. The market trades the derivative, not the level. What I am watching is whether the pre-market dip holds or deepens into the cash open and whether the semiconductor peers keep their gains without Micron. If they do, the read-through to AI hardware is intact. If they fade, Micron was the top of the chain. I stand aside until the price tells me which. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. Earnings figures come from Micron's Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 dated September 30, 2026 and were machine-extracted. Price and volume figures come from an aggregator and are NOT VERIFIED. No options data was pulled or computed for this post. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Space Desk • Sector Tape Starship Reached Orbit. All Six Space Stocks Fell Anyway. September 30, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front SpaceX flew Starship Flight 14 on September 28 and, per a secondary mission log, put 26 Starlink V3 satellites in low Earth orbit. Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (Nasdaq: ASTS), Intuitive Machines (Nasdaq: LUNR), Planet Labs (NYSE: PL), Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: FLY) and Redwire (NYSE: RDW) then fell on both the September 28 and September 29 sessions, down 3.9 percent to 7.7 percent over the two days. Volume ran from 0.83x to 1.46x of the 20-day average, so this was drift, not a stampede. No sourced cause exists yet, and I will not invent one. The Tape Every name on the space list closed lower on both sessions after the flight. RDW took the biggest two-day hit. ASTS took the smallest, but it also had the strangest session: it opened September 29 at $65.10, a 6.7 percent gap above the $61.00 prior close, then sold off to close at $59.40 on 15.9 million shares, about 1.46x its 20-day average of 10.9 million. Ticker Sep 25 close Sep 29 close Two-day Sep 29 Vol vs 20-day avg RKLB $73.95 $69.70 -5.75% -3.45% 1.07x ASTS $61.81 $59.40 -3.90% -2.62% 1.46x LUNR $15.61 $14.55 -6.79% -4.28% 0.83x PL $17.43 $16.38 -6.02% -2.33% 1.45x FLY $24.36 $22.86 -6.16% -5.18% 1.06x RDW $11.62 $10.73 -7.66% -4.20% 0.94x Source: StockAnalysis.com daily history, Sep 25 and Sep 29, 2026 sessions (S&P Global Market Intelligence feed). Aggregator figures, NOT VERIFIED against an exchange or issuer source. Two-day change and volume ratio computed by SharkWater from those rows; average volume is the mean of the 20 sessions before Sep 29 as read from the same page. What Is Confirmed and What Is Not Confirmed by a mission log (rocketlaunch.org, secondary, September 28, 2026): Flight 14 launched at 12:48 UTC, Ship 41 made a soft Pacific splashdown, the booster completed its landing burn with a targeted Gulf of Mexico ocean landing, and this was the first Starship flight to deploy satellites. An earlier account reported one of six ship engines shutting down on ascent; the mission log documents no issues. That conflict is unresolved, and I did not reach SpaceX's own account. NOT VERIFIED against a primary source. Not found: any dated catalyst for the selloff in the six names on either day. No watchlist company filed or released anything I could tie to the decline. FLY was the only name to fall more than 5 percent on a single session (-5.18 percent on September 29, on 1.06x average volume). Why a Win Can Look Like a Threat This part is inference, not sourced fact. The space group trades partly on the idea that heavy launch capacity is scarce. A Starship that reaches orbit and deploys a full Starlink V3 batch is a step toward cheap, abundant lift and a bigger direct-to-device competitor. That reading is bad for launch names (RKLB, FLY) and for ASTS, whose business is competing with Starlink. It is a stretch for imaging (PL) and lunar landers (LUNR), which fell just as hard. The uniformity of the drop points to basket behavior, not six separate stories. When the biggest boat in the harbor learns to dock itself, the charter captains do not cheer. They check the price of their own slip. The Bull Case Orderly, not forced. Volume ratios of 0.83x to 1.46x show no capitulation. A drift on ordinary volume is what a fade after a well-anticipated event looks like. A working Starship helps the whole ecosystem. More launches, more Starlink capacity and more demand for orbital services, imaging and lunar logistics is one way to read the flight. That case needs a source from the companies, and none appeared. Reversal potential. ASTS opened 6.7 percent higher before selling off. Buyers showed up at the open. Whether they return is untested. The Bear Case Competitive read-through. If Starship lift gets cheap, launch pricing power across the group is questioned, and Starlink V3 raises the bar for direct-to-cell rivals. Two down sessions, no bounce. Six of six lower twice in a row, with ASTS failing at a gap-up, is a market choosing to sell strength. No catalyst ahead is confirmed. I found no dated company event in the next session that resets the narrative. Absent one, the group trades on flows. The SharkWater Take I would not build a trade on this tape. The move is real, but the cause is a guess, and a guess is not an edge. What I can say is that a sector-defining flight produced no positive read-through, which tells me the good news was already in the price. The tell I am watching is ASTS: a 6.7 percent gap that fully reversed on 1.46x volume is the ugliest single print in the group. If the basket stops falling while ASTS keeps failing at the open, the weak link is showing itself. Until a sourced catalyst appears, I stand aside. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and dated. Price and volume figures come from an aggregator and are NOT VERIFIED against primary sources. No options data was pulled or computed for this post. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Semis Desk • NVDA Capital Return Nvidia's Record $150 Billion Buyback Is a Ceiling, Not a Purchase September 29, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front On September 28, 2026, NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) raised its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion, taking the total remaining to $235 billion, to be executed through fiscal 2028 (company press release, September 28, 2026). That implies about $85 billion was left before the increase (SharkWater arithmetic: $235 billion minus $150 billion). An authorization is permission, not a trade. The release gives no purchase pace, so the number that matters, dollars actually retired per quarter, is not yet public. What NVIDIA Actually Said The release is short. It states the size of the increase, the new remaining total and the execution window. It does not state a quarterly or annual pace, a funding source or a price limit. CEO Jensen Huang is quoted tying the company's growth to what he calls a once-in-a-generation platform shift to AI and accelerated computing. Item Figure Basis Authorization increase $150B NVIDIA release, Sep 28, 2026 Total remaining after increase $235B NVIDIA release, Sep 28, 2026 Implied remaining before increase ~$85B SharkWater arithmetic, not stated by NVIDIA Execution window Through fiscal 2028 NVIDIA release, Sep 28, 2026 "Largest increase in history" claim Company language NVIDIA release; not independently checked Source: NVIDIA Newsroom, "NVIDIA Announces a $150 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization Increase," September 28, 2026. No 8-K was confirmed for this item because SEC full-text search was unreachable during this scan. Authorization Is Not Execution Companies announce buyback authorizations they never finish. The board approves a ceiling. Management buys when cash and conviction line up. Nothing in a press release forces a single share to be retired. A buyback authorization is a fishing license, not a full cooler. The license tells you how many fish the law allows. Only the log book tells you how many came aboard. The log book here is the repurchase table in NVIDIA's next 10-Q. Until it prints, the pace is unknown. For scale only: if the full $235 billion were used evenly between now and the end of fiscal 2028 (roughly late January 2028, about 16 months), that works out to about $15 billion a month. That is illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast, and NVIDIA has not said it will buy at that rate. What Is Not Verified Four figures circulating in coverage are aggregator-only. This desk did not use them as fact. Cash on hand. One aggregator (investingLive, September 28, 2026) cites about $22 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of the July quarter. NOT VERIFIED against the 10-Q. Cash alone would not fund $235 billion, so free cash flow and marketable securities matter more than that line. Prior authorization. The same source says an $80 billion buyback was announced in May. NOT VERIFIED. It does not reconcile with the $85 billion implied remainder without knowing how much was spent since. Stock reaction. Monday, September 28 gains for NVDA are reported as roughly 1.7 percent to nearly 3 percent depending on the outlet. Close and volume NOT VERIFIED. Valuation. A reported forward multiple of 16.5 times is NOT VERIFIED and depends on whose earnings estimate sits in the denominator. Context for the same session, also from aggregators: the S&P 500 closed down about 0.8 percent, semiconductors fell more than 2 percent, and Micron (Nasdaq: MU) and AMD fell while NVDA rose. A buyback that lifts a stock on a day the group sells off is a signal about sponsorship. It is not proof of a floor. The Bull Case Management is signaling the shares are cheap. A board does not authorize $150 billion more if it expects the stock to look expensive next year. Persistent bid. Even partial use creates a steady buyer in a tape where semis are otherwise being sold. Capital return without cutting growth spend. The size implies cash generation large enough to fund both, which is the company's own framing. The Bear Case No pace, no commitment. The release states a ceiling and a window. It never states a purchase rate. A buyback can mean fewer places to spend. Some analysts read large authorizations as a sign management sees slower profit growth ahead. That reading is coverage commentary, not an NVIDIA statement. Macro is the bigger driver right now. Treasury yields at multi-year highs (aggregator-reported, NOT VERIFIED) and a Micron earnings print after the close on September 30 can swamp a buyback headline. The SharkWater Take I am not treating this as a catalyst yet. The headline number is real and it is a vote of confidence from the people who see the orders. But it is a ceiling with no stated speed, and I will not pay for a ceiling. The proof shows up in the repurchase table of the next 10-Q, where dollars retired per quarter either match the ambition or they do not. Until then the buyback is background support for the stock, not a reason to lean on it. Execution Notes There is no trade here to build. No options chain was pulled for this post, so no strikes, premiums or expirations are given. If you are watching volatility into the Micron report on September 30 after the close, one aggregator (Benzinga) reports an implied move of about 8 percent. That figure is NOT VERIFIED against a live chain. Pull the chain from your broker. What invalidates the "quiet support" read: a 10-Q showing repurchases well below the pace this authorization implies. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.