SharkWater Trading  •  Space Desk • Sector Tape Starship Reached Orbit. All Six Space Stocks Fell Anyway. September 30, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front SpaceX flew Starship Flight 14 on September 28 and, per a secondary mission log, put 26 Starlink V3 satellites in low Earth orbit. Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (Nasdaq: ASTS), Intuitive Machines (Nasdaq: LUNR), Planet Labs (NYSE: PL), Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: FLY) and Redwire (NYSE: RDW) then fell on both the September 28 and September 29 sessions, down 3.9 percent to 7.7 percent over the two days. Volume ran from 0.83x to 1.46x of the 20-day average, so this was drift, not a stampede. No sourced cause exists yet, and I will not invent one. The Tape Every name on the space list closed lower on both sessions after the flight. RDW took the biggest two-day hit. ASTS took the smallest, but it also had the strangest session: it opened September 29 at $65.10, a 6.7 percent gap above the $61.00 prior close, then sold off to close at $59.40 on 15.9 million shares, about 1.46x its 20-day average of 10.9 million. Ticker Sep 25 close Sep 29 close Two-day Sep 29 Vol vs 20-day avg RKLB $73.95 $69.70 -5.75% -3.45% 1.07x ASTS $61.81 $59.40 -3.90% -2.62% 1.46x LUNR $15.61 $14.55 -6.79% -4.28% 0.83x PL $17.43 $16.38 -6.02% -2.33% 1.45x FLY $24.36 $22.86 -6.16% -5.18% 1.06x RDW $11.62 $10.73 -7.66% -4.20% 0.94x Source: StockAnalysis.com daily history, Sep 25 and Sep 29, 2026 sessions (S&P Global Market Intelligence feed). Aggregator figures, NOT VERIFIED against an exchange or issuer source. Two-day change and volume ratio computed by SharkWater from those rows; average volume is the mean of the 20 sessions before Sep 29 as read from the same page. What Is Confirmed and What Is Not Confirmed by a mission log (rocketlaunch.org, secondary, September 28, 2026): Flight 14 launched at 12:48 UTC, Ship 41 made a soft Pacific splashdown, the booster completed its landing burn with a targeted Gulf of Mexico ocean landing, and this was the first Starship flight to deploy satellites. An earlier account reported one of six ship engines shutting down on ascent; the mission log documents no issues. That conflict is unresolved, and I did not reach SpaceX's own account. NOT VERIFIED against a primary source. Not found: any dated catalyst for the selloff in the six names on either day. No watchlist company filed or released anything I could tie to the decline. FLY was the only name to fall more than 5 percent on a single session (-5.18 percent on September 29, on 1.06x average volume). Why a Win Can Look Like a Threat This part is inference, not sourced fact. The space group trades partly on the idea that heavy launch capacity is scarce. A Starship that reaches orbit and deploys a full Starlink V3 batch is a step toward cheap, abundant lift and a bigger direct-to-device competitor. That reading is bad for launch names (RKLB, FLY) and for ASTS, whose business is competing with Starlink. It is a stretch for imaging (PL) and lunar landers (LUNR), which fell just as hard. The uniformity of the drop points to basket behavior, not six separate stories. When the biggest boat in the harbor learns to dock itself, the charter captains do not cheer. They check the price of their own slip. The Bull Case Orderly, not forced. Volume ratios of 0.83x to 1.46x show no capitulation. A drift on ordinary volume is what a fade after a well-anticipated event looks like. A working Starship helps the whole ecosystem. More launches, more Starlink capacity and more demand for orbital services, imaging and lunar logistics is one way to read the flight. That case needs a source from the companies, and none appeared. Reversal potential. ASTS opened 6.7 percent higher before selling off. Buyers showed up at the open. Whether they return is untested. The Bear Case Competitive read-through. If Starship lift gets cheap, launch pricing power across the group is questioned, and Starlink V3 raises the bar for direct-to-cell rivals. Two down sessions, no bounce. Six of six lower twice in a row, with ASTS failing at a gap-up, is a market choosing to sell strength. No catalyst ahead is confirmed. I found no dated company event in the next session that resets the narrative. Absent one, the group trades on flows. The SharkWater Take I would not build a trade on this tape. The move is real, but the cause is a guess, and a guess is not an edge. What I can say is that a sector-defining flight produced no positive read-through, which tells me the good news was already in the price. The tell I am watching is ASTS: a 6.7 percent gap that fully reversed on 1.46x volume is the ugliest single print in the group. If the basket stops falling while ASTS keeps failing at the open, the weak link is showing itself. Until a sourced catalyst appears, I stand aside. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and dated. Price and volume figures come from an aggregator and are NOT VERIFIED against primary sources. No options data was pulled or computed for this post. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Semis Desk • NVDA Capital Return Nvidia's Record $150 Billion Buyback Is a Ceiling, Not a Purchase September 29, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front On September 28, 2026, NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) raised its share repurchase authorization by $150 billion, taking the total remaining to $235 billion, to be executed through fiscal 2028 (company press release, September 28, 2026). That implies about $85 billion was left before the increase (SharkWater arithmetic: $235 billion minus $150 billion). An authorization is permission, not a trade. The release gives no purchase pace, so the number that matters, dollars actually retired per quarter, is not yet public. What NVIDIA Actually Said The release is short. It states the size of the increase, the new remaining total and the execution window. It does not state a quarterly or annual pace, a funding source or a price limit. CEO Jensen Huang is quoted tying the company's growth to what he calls a once-in-a-generation platform shift to AI and accelerated computing. Item Figure Basis Authorization increase $150B NVIDIA release, Sep 28, 2026 Total remaining after increase $235B NVIDIA release, Sep 28, 2026 Implied remaining before increase ~$85B SharkWater arithmetic, not stated by NVIDIA Execution window Through fiscal 2028 NVIDIA release, Sep 28, 2026 "Largest increase in history" claim Company language NVIDIA release; not independently checked Source: NVIDIA Newsroom, "NVIDIA Announces a $150 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization Increase," September 28, 2026. No 8-K was confirmed for this item because SEC full-text search was unreachable during this scan. Authorization Is Not Execution Companies announce buyback authorizations they never finish. The board approves a ceiling. Management buys when cash and conviction line up. Nothing in a press release forces a single share to be retired. A buyback authorization is a fishing license, not a full cooler. The license tells you how many fish the law allows. Only the log book tells you how many came aboard. The log book here is the repurchase table in NVIDIA's next 10-Q. Until it prints, the pace is unknown. For scale only: if the full $235 billion were used evenly between now and the end of fiscal 2028 (roughly late January 2028, about 16 months), that works out to about $15 billion a month. That is illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast, and NVIDIA has not said it will buy at that rate. What Is Not Verified Four figures circulating in coverage are aggregator-only. This desk did not use them as fact. Cash on hand. One aggregator (investingLive, September 28, 2026) cites about $22 billion in cash and equivalents at the end of the July quarter. NOT VERIFIED against the 10-Q. Cash alone would not fund $235 billion, so free cash flow and marketable securities matter more than that line. Prior authorization. The same source says an $80 billion buyback was announced in May. NOT VERIFIED. It does not reconcile with the $85 billion implied remainder without knowing how much was spent since. Stock reaction. Monday, September 28 gains for NVDA are reported as roughly 1.7 percent to nearly 3 percent depending on the outlet. Close and volume NOT VERIFIED. Valuation. A reported forward multiple of 16.5 times is NOT VERIFIED and depends on whose earnings estimate sits in the denominator. Context for the same session, also from aggregators: the S&P 500 closed down about 0.8 percent, semiconductors fell more than 2 percent, and Micron (Nasdaq: MU) and AMD fell while NVDA rose. A buyback that lifts a stock on a day the group sells off is a signal about sponsorship. It is not proof of a floor. The Bull Case Management is signaling the shares are cheap. A board does not authorize $150 billion more if it expects the stock to look expensive next year. Persistent bid. Even partial use creates a steady buyer in a tape where semis are otherwise being sold. Capital return without cutting growth spend. The size implies cash generation large enough to fund both, which is the company's own framing. The Bear Case No pace, no commitment. The release states a ceiling and a window. It never states a purchase rate. A buyback can mean fewer places to spend. Some analysts read large authorizations as a sign management sees slower profit growth ahead. That reading is coverage commentary, not an NVIDIA statement. Macro is the bigger driver right now. Treasury yields at multi-year highs (aggregator-reported, NOT VERIFIED) and a Micron earnings print after the close on September 30 can swamp a buyback headline. The SharkWater Take I am not treating this as a catalyst yet. The headline number is real and it is a vote of confidence from the people who see the orders. But it is a ceiling with no stated speed, and I will not pay for a ceiling. The proof shows up in the repurchase table of the next 10-Q, where dollars retired per quarter either match the ambition or they do not. Until then the buyback is background support for the stock, not a reason to lean on it. Execution Notes There is no trade here to build. No options chain was pulled for this post, so no strikes, premiums or expirations are given. If you are watching volatility into the Micron report on September 30 after the close, one aggregator (Benzinga) reports an implied move of about 8 percent. That figure is NOT VERIFIED against a live chain. Pull the chain from your broker. What invalidates the "quiet support" read: a 10-Q showing repurchases well below the pace this authorization implies. Tight lines. SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

CORRECTED: SharkWater Pre-Market Scan — September 28, 2026

SharkWater Trading  •  Desk Notes • Pre-Market Scan SharkWater Pre-Market Scan — September 28, 2026 September 28, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front No material company-specific developments surfaced this window. No fresh 8-K, 424B5, S-1, 13D, or 13G was found for any watchlist ticker since Friday's close, and no distribution or NAV event was found for the six income and pre-IPO funds checked. The day's only scheduled catalyst is SpaceX's Starship Flight 14, its first orbital launch attempt, targeting an 8:49am ET liftoff; the outcome was not known as of this scan. Nothing here clears the bar for a standalone post today. Correction to the record The "unpublished backlog" flagged in the September 20, 22, and 27 scans was a false alarm. Those scans searched Gmail's default inbox view, which excludes Trash, and concluded nothing had reached Blogger since September 17. Checking Trash this run, and confirming directly against sharkwatertrading.com, shows every post from September 18 through September 27 was in fact sent and is live on the blog, correctly dated through the September 27 TeraWulf correction. Nothing needs to be resent. No decision is needed from you on this. Publishing note, this run A diagnostic test this run found that Gmail's send tool silently strips every CSS background and background-color declaration from outbound HTML, on every send, with no exception found. That means every SharkWater post sent through this pipeline, back to the first one, has gone out and landed on Blogger without the intended dark navy panel backgrounds behind the light-colored text. This email uses table bgcolor attributes instead, which survive the strip, as a fix. Whether the prior posts actually read as light-on-light on the live blog depends on Blogger's own theme background, which was not checked this run; if you notice any past post looking washed out or hard to read, that is almost certainly this. Actionable None qualify this run. Checked and came up empty: fresh filings (8-K, 424B5, S-1, 13D, 13G) for all twenty-six watchlist tickers since Friday, September 25's close; distribution or NAV events for RVI, DXYZ, VCX, ARKVX, THTA, and AGNC; and any confirmed post-Friday price move, since no new session has closed between then and this scan. Monitor Space sector, forward-looking. SpaceX is attempting Starship's first-ever orbital flight this morning, an 8:15–9:30am ET window targeting 8:49am ET liftoff (SpaceX's own account and Space.com's live coverage; outcome unknown as of this scan). A clean result or a public failure could move sentiment across RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, PL, RDW, and FLY today with no company-specific news attached; none of those tickers has been confirmed as a stated payload or hardware partner on this mission. Macro, secondary sourcing. S&P 500 futures were down roughly 0.6 percent this morning on a reported US rejection of an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude reported near $107 a barrel (Investrade's morning note, secondary; not checked against a primary wire or exchange settlement). Fundrise Innovation Fund II, LLC filed an N-2/A on September 25, 2026 (EDGAR full text search, primary for the filing's existence, document not read this run). This is a separate legal entity from VCX, the Fundrise vehicle already on the watchlist. Whether it competes for the same investor base as VCX, RVI, DXYZ, and ARKVX, and what it means for VCX's NAV premium, was not traced this run. NVDA, secondary and not filing-based. Nvidia reportedly introduced a new hardware security architecture and may be permitted to sell its RTX Pro 5500 chip in China (Investrade's morning note, secondary; no primary Nvidia newsroom item checked this run). AVGO / OKLO / XE, unchanged. The FT-reported SASAC review of Broadcom's China switching-hardware dependency remains open and secondary-sourced only. Oklo's newsroom URL 404'd again this run; UBS's prior price-target cut and X-Energy's leadership change are unchanged. Noise Checked against EDGAR this window, no new filing found, unless noted. ASTS — no new filing; press page not re-checked (prior JS-rendering issue). RKLB — no new filing since the Sept 25 Electron launch already logged. LUNR — no change. PL — no change. FLY — no change. Reconfirmed as Firefly Aerospace Inc., not the legacy Fly Leasing entity. RDW — no change. RVI — no change. Reconfirmed as Robinhood Ventures Fund I, not the legacy Retail Value Inc. REIT. DXYZ — no change (checked against Destiny Tech100). VCX — no new filing under Fundrise Innovation Fund itself; see Monitor for the related Fund II item. ARKVX — no change (checked against ARK Venture Fund). AGNC — no change. September's $0.12 dividend was already declared September 10, ahead of this window. ORC — no change. September's dividend was already declared September 14, ahead of this window. USA — no change (checked against Liberty All-Star Equity Fund). THTA — no change. A 10.00 percent distribution rate was already announced September 14, ahead of this window. IREN — no change. NBIS — no change. KEEL — no change. Reconfirmed as Keel Infrastructure Corp. CBRS — no change. Ticker remains Cerebras Systems Inc. WOLF — no change. NVDA — no new SEC filing; see Monitor for a secondary item. MU — no change. AVGO — no new filing; see Monitor for the carried-over SASAC item. SMR — no change. Data Gaps No exact, primary-sourced VIX print for today exists in this scan; only secondary references to a risk-off tone were found. Oklo's newsroom URL 404'd again this run, same failure as September 27; its press page remains unconfirmed clean of any weekend or Monday-morning announcement. AST SpaceMobile's own investor press-release page was not re-checked this run (prior JavaScript-rendering issue). The relationship between "Fundrise Innovation Fund," "Fundrise Growth Tech Fund, LLC" (VCX's issuer name per Yahoo Finance), and "Fundrise Innovation Fund II, LLC" (the entity that filed the September 25 N-2/A) was not resolved. This needs a primary-source read before anything is written about VCX tied to that filing. Whether any watchlist ticker is a stated payload, hardware, or ground-systems partner on today's Starship Flight 14 mission was not verified. Liberty All-Star Equity Fund's (USA) most recent distribution declaration date was not independently re-verified this run. The Fundrise Innovation Fund II N-2/A's actual content was not read this run, only its existence and filing date via EDGAR metadata. Whether Blogger's own theme background is dark or light, which determines how badly the background-stripping bug above has affected past posts' readability, was not checked this run. Tight lines. — SharkWater SharkWater Trading pre-market scan. Educational and informational purposes only, not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication.

SharkWater Trading  •  Desk Notes • Pre-Market Scan

SharkWater Pre-Market Scan — September 28, 2026

September 28, 2026

Bottom Line Up Front

No material company-specific developments surfaced this window. No fresh 8-K, 424B5, S-1, 13D, or 13G was found for any watchlist ticker since Friday's close, and no distribution or NAV event was found for the six income and pre-IPO funds checked. The day's only scheduled catalyst is SpaceX's Starship Flight 14, its first orbital launch attempt, targeting an 8:49am ET liftoff; the outcome was not known as of this scan. Nothing here clears the bar for a standalone post today.

Correction to the record

The "unpublished backlog" flagged in the September 20, 22, and 27 scans was a false alarm. Those scans searched Gmail's default inbox view, which excludes Trash, and concluded nothing had reached Blogger since September 17. Checking Trash this run, and confirming directly against sharkwatertrading.com, shows every post from September 18 through September 27 was in fact sent and is live on the blog, correctly dated through the September 27 TeraWulf correction. Nothing needs to be resent. No decision is needed from you on this.

Actionable

None qualify this run. Checked and came up empty: fresh filings (8-K, 424B5, S-1, 13D, 13G) for all twenty-six watchlist tickers since Friday, September 25's close; distribution or NAV events for RVI, DXYZ, VCX, ARKVX, THTA, and AGNC; and any confirmed post-Friday price move, since no new session has closed between then and this scan.

Monitor

• Space sector, forward-looking. SpaceX is attempting Starship's first-ever orbital flight this morning, an 8:15–9:30am ET window targeting 8:49am ET liftoff (SpaceX's own account and Space.com's live coverage; outcome unknown as of this scan). A clean result or a public failure could move sentiment across RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, PL, RDW, and FLY today with no company-specific news attached; none of those tickers has been confirmed as a stated payload or hardware partner on this mission.
• Macro, secondary sourcing. S&P 500 futures were down roughly 0.6 percent this morning on a reported US rejection of an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude reported near $107 a barrel (Investrade's morning note, secondary; not checked against a primary wire or exchange settlement).
• Fundrise Innovation Fund II, LLC filed an N-2/A on September 25, 2026 (EDGAR full text search, primary for the filing's existence, document not read this run). This is a separate legal entity from VCX, the Fundrise vehicle already on the watchlist. Whether it competes for the same investor base as VCX, RVI, DXYZ, and ARKVX, and what it means for VCX's NAV premium, was not traced this run.
• NVDA, secondary and not filing-based. Nvidia reportedly introduced a new hardware security architecture and may be permitted to sell its RTX Pro 5500 chip in China (Investrade's morning note, secondary; no primary Nvidia newsroom item checked this run).
• AVGO / OKLO / XE, unchanged. The FT-reported SASAC review of Broadcom's China switching-hardware dependency remains open and secondary-sourced only. Oklo's newsroom URL 404'd again this run; UBS's prior price-target cut and X-Energy's leadership change are unchanged.

Noise

Checked against EDGAR this window, no new filing found, unless noted.

ASTS — no new filing; press page not re-checked (prior JS-rendering issue).
RKLB — no new filing since the Sept 25 Electron launch already logged.
LUNR — no change.
PL — no change.
FLY — no change. Reconfirmed as Firefly Aerospace Inc., not the legacy Fly Leasing entity.
RDW — no change.
RVI — no change. Reconfirmed as Robinhood Ventures Fund I, not the legacy Retail Value Inc. REIT.
DXYZ — no change (checked against Destiny Tech100).
VCX — no new filing under Fundrise Innovation Fund itself; see Monitor for the related Fund II item.
ARKVX — no change (checked against ARK Venture Fund).
AGNC — no change. September's $0.12 dividend was already declared September 10, ahead of this window.
ORC — no change. September's dividend was already declared September 14, ahead of this window.
USA — no change (checked against Liberty All-Star Equity Fund).
THTA — no change. A 10.00 percent distribution rate was already announced September 14, ahead of this window.
IREN — no change.
NBIS — no change.
KEEL — no change. Reconfirmed as Keel Infrastructure Corp.
CBRS — no change. Ticker remains Cerebras Systems Inc.
WOLF — no change.
NVDA — no new SEC filing; see Monitor for a secondary item.
MU — no change.
AVGO — no new filing; see Monitor for the carried-over SASAC item.
SMR — no change.

Data Gaps

1. No exact, primary-sourced VIX print for today exists in this scan; only secondary references to a risk-off tone were found.
2. Oklo's newsroom URL 404'd again this run, same failure as September 27; its press page remains unconfirmed clean of any weekend or Monday-morning announcement.
3. AST SpaceMobile's own investor press-release page was not re-checked this run (prior JavaScript-rendering issue).
4. The relationship between "Fundrise Innovation Fund," "Fundrise Growth Tech Fund, LLC" (VCX's issuer name per Yahoo Finance), and "Fundrise Innovation Fund II, LLC" (the entity that filed the September 25 N-2/A) was not resolved. This needs a primary-source read before anything is written about VCX tied to that filing.
5. Whether any watchlist ticker is a stated payload, hardware, or ground-systems partner on today's Starship Flight 14 mission was not verified.
6. Liberty All-Star Equity Fund's (USA) most recent distribution declaration date was not independently re-verified this run.
7. The Fundrise Innovation Fund II N-2/A's actual content was not read this run, only its existence and filing date via EDGAR metadata.

Tight lines. — SharkWater

SharkWater Trading pre-market scan. Educational and informational purposes only, not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication.

CORRECTED: Google Doesn't Own TeraWulf Stock. It Owns 41 Million Warrants Struck at a Penny.

SharkWater Trading  •  Data Center Desk • Filings

Google Doesn't Own TeraWulf Stock. It Owns 41 Million Warrants Struck at a Penny.

September 27, 2026

Bottom Line Up Front

A Schedule 13G filed September 25, 2026 shows Google, through Alphabet and XXVI Holdings, beneficially owns 41,011,803 shares of TeraWulf (NASDAQ: WULF), or 7.6 percent of the class, entirely through warrants exercisable at $0.01 a share. Those warrants were not bought. They were issued as collateral for Google's guarantee of Fluidstack's lease obligations on the CB-5 data center at Lake Mariner, first disclosed in an August 2025 8-K at 32,568,197 shares and now roughly 8.4 million shares larger. WULF closed Friday, September 25 at $15.74, down 3.38 percent, as the broader neocloud group (IREN, NBIS, KEEL) sold off together. This is a credit-support arrangement wearing the market's favorite AI-partnership costume.

What the Filing Actually Says

The Schedule 13G names three reporting persons: Google LLC, XXVI Holdings Inc., and Alphabet Inc., the parent chain that owns and directs Google. All three certify a passive stake, meaning the securities were not acquired to influence control of the company. The 41,011,803 shares are described as issuable upon exercise of warrants that are currently exercisable or exercisable within 60 days. There is no open-market purchase anywhere in this document.

Go back to the source of those warrants and the picture sharpens. An August 14, 2025 Form 8-K discloses that Google received 32,568,197 warrant shares at a $0.01 strike price in exchange for guaranteeing Fluidstack's lease payments under the CB-5 lease at TeraWulf's Lake Mariner site. The warrants themselves were pledged to CB-5's construction lenders as security, released only once the guarantee takes effect at lease commencement. Google was not writing a check for equity. It was putting its balance sheet behind Fluidstack's rent so TeraWulf could get the CB-5 buildout financed.

A bank co-signing your mortgage isn't the same as a bank buying your house. It gets you the loan. It also means the bank's name is now on the paper, and if you miss a payment, the bank's exposure is the thing that gets called first.

The Stake Has Grown, and This Desk Can't Fully Explain Why Yet

The gap between the 32,568,197 shares in the August 2025 8-K and the 41,011,803 shares in this month's 13G is about 8.4 million shares. TeraWulf announced a 160 MW CB-5 lease expansion with Fluidstack in the interim, and the growth in the warrant count is consistent with additional collateral tied to that expansion. This desk has not confirmed that link against a specific filing, and is not asserting it as fact. It's the open thread worth pulling before treating this as a settled story.

Date	Filing	Warrant Shares	Strike
Aug 14, 2025	Form 8-K	32,568,197	$0.01
Sept 25, 2026	Schedule 13G	41,011,803	$0.01 (per originating 8-K)

Source: SEC EDGAR, Form 8-K filed Aug 14, 2025, and Schedule 13G filed Sept 25, 2026, both read via TeraWulf's own investor-relations filing mirror. TeraWulf's total shares outstanding, approximately 498.97 million, is aggregator-sourced (stockanalysis.com) and not independently confirmed against the company's own most recent 10-Q cover page.

The Bull Case

• Google's credit is doing real work. A guarantee from a company with Alphabet's balance sheet is what let TeraWulf and Fluidstack get CB-5's construction financed on favorable terms, without TeraWulf issuing dilutive cash equity to fund the buildout directly.
• The relationship is expanding, not shrinking. A larger warrant block points to a larger backstop, which points to a larger footprint at Lake Mariner. That's a vote of confidence in the underlying AI-hosting demand, even if it isn't a vote of confidence expressed through open-market stock purchases.
• Warrants at $0.01 pledged as loan collateral are not the same as an active seller. Nothing in this filing shows Google distributing or selling shares. The overhang is theoretical until exercised.

The Bear Case

• 41 million shares at a penny is functionally free stock. If those warrants are ever exercised in full, the dilution hits per-share value directly, and the cost basis to Google is close to nothing.
• A guarantee exists because the underlying credit needed one. Fluidstack's lease obligations required Google to co-sign in the first place. That is a data point about the counterparty risk in the deal, not just a marketing headline about "Google backing TeraWulf."
• It landed inside a real group-wide selloff. IREN, NBIS, WULF, and KEEL all closed lower Friday. Layering a growing, penny-strike dilution overhang onto a sector already digesting a confirmed Nebius GPU-rental price hike and a Sell rating on a neocloud peer is not a coincidence this desk is ready to wave off.

The SharkWater Take

I don't read this as a bullish Google-backs-TeraWulf headline, and I don't read it as a bearish Google-is-dumping-shares headline either, because neither is what the filing says. What it says is that TeraWulf's biggest AI-hosting partner is extending credit, not cash, and getting paid in cheap dilution for the privilege. That's a normal, sensible way to finance a data center buildout. It is not, on its own, a reason to pay up for the stock on the theory that Google's name is now attached to it. Until I can trace exactly which expansion agreement accounts for the extra 8.4 million warrant shares, I'm treating this as a data point inside the broader neocloud pullback, not a standalone thesis. I am not taking a position here off this filing alone.

Tight lines. — SharkWater

Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. Options involve substantial risk of loss. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.