SharkWater Trading  •  Semiconductor Desk • Networking Nvidia and Cisco Announce USFP, a 400G-Per-Lane Optics Standard With No Ship Date October 13, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) and Cisco announced on October 12, 2026 a new optical module format called Ultra-Dense Small Form Factor Pluggable, or USFP, built for 400Gb/s per lane signaling. The first planned module carries 16 lanes for up to 12.8Tb/s, and the companies claim 4x the bandwidth density and about 1.3x the power efficiency of 200G pluggables. The release gives no ship date and no pricing. It describes plans and a future multi-source agreement, not product. This is a roadmap signal, not a revenue event. What Was Announced The format targets Ethernet AI fabrics moving from 200Gb/s to 400Gb/s per lane. It ties to Nvidia Spectrum-X Ethernet and Cisco Silicon One networks. TE Connectivity and Amphenol are named as partners on cages, connectors and modules. The release says more partners are expected. Item Per the release Lane signaling 400Gb/s per lane, versus 200Gb/s per lane today First planned module 16 full-duplex lanes, OSFP-sized footprint, up to 12.8Tb/s Claimed gain vs 200G pluggables 4x bandwidth and front-panel density, about 1.3x power efficiency Power Up to 100 watts without a dedicated embedded cooling circuit in the transceiver Ecosystem TE Connectivity and Amphenol on cages, connectors, modules. Other partners expected Ship date Not stated. Release says "plans" and an upcoming community-led multi-source project Source: NVIDIA Newsroom, "NVIDIA and Cisco Introduce New Pluggable Optics Form Factor to Scale AI Factories," October 12, 2026. All specifications are vendor claims from the release, not independent measurements. The mechanical detail is a two-dimensional array connector with two-step insertion, which the companies say reduces contact wear and protects signal integrity. The design can expand to 32 or more lanes later. What Is Missing There is no availability date, no price, and no named optics supplier beyond the connector makers. The open specification is described as an upcoming community-led multi-source project. That means the standard does not exist yet in finished form. I did not find any SEC filing tied to this announcement as of the October 13, 2026 morning check, and I have no verified price or volume data for NVDA or any networking name this morning. Broadcom (Nasdaq: AVGO) is on my watchlist, and the release does not mention it. Whether USFP helps or hurts any switch silicon vendor outside Nvidia and Cisco depends on who joins the project. The release does not say. I will not guess. A new connector standard is a harbor survey, not a ship. The chart tells you where the channel will be dredged. It tells you nothing about who gets paid to dredge it, or when. The Bull Case Density is the right problem. Four times the front-panel bandwidth in the same footprint speaks to the actual bottleneck in large clusters, per the vendors. Two heavyweight sponsors. Nvidia on the compute side and Cisco on the switching side give the format a credible start. Connector makers are already named. TE Connectivity and Amphenol are attached from day one, which points to a real supply chain effort. The Bear Case No date, no price. Everything is a plan. Standards efforts can stall, split or arrive late. Vendor numbers only. The 4x and 1.3x figures are the sponsors' own comparisons to 200G modules. No independent test exists. Rivals can answer. A multi-source project open to others also lets competitors shape the final spec. The SharkWater Take I am not trading this headline. A form factor announcement with no ship date does not move this quarter's earnings for anyone. I care about two things: who joins the multi-source project, and whether a module supplier names a sampling date. Until one of those happens, this belongs in the notebook, not the portfolio. I have no verified price reaction to report, and I will not infer one from the press release. Tight lines, SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Semiconductor Desk • Insider Filing Nvidia Director Tench Coxe Gifts Another 500,000 Shares. It Is Not a Sale, and the Share Count Does Not Add Up October 12, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) director Tench Coxe filed a Form 4 on October 9, 2026 reporting a 500,000 share gift on October 7, code G, price $0, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan he adopted on March 19, 2026. The trust that made the gift held 23,671,360 shares afterward. This is a gift, not a market sale, so it is not selling pressure. The oddity is arithmetic: the trust balance fell 1,000,000 shares between the August 5 and October 7 filings, but I found only one 500,000 share gift in that span. The other 500,000 is NOT VERIFIED. The Filing Transaction date Code Shares Trust shares after Filed Jul 1, 2026 G (gift) 500,000 25,171,360 Jul 6, 2026 Aug 5, 2026 G (gift) 500,000 24,671,360 Aug 7, 2026 Oct 7, 2026 G (gift) 500,000 23,671,360 Oct 9, 2026 Source: SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings by Tench Coxe, issuer NVIDIA Corp: accessions 0001197647-26-000005, -000007 and -000011. All three cite a 10b5-1 plan adopted March 19, 2026. Coxe is a director only. The trust shares are held indirectly; he disclaims beneficial ownership beyond his pecuniary interest. A code G is a gift without consideration. Nothing is sold and nothing hits the tape. The same filings show Coxe also holds 57,378 shares directly and 4,852,480 shares through a profit sharing plan trust, both unchanged. His June 25, 2026 Form 4 showed a routine 1,211 share board RSU grant, a different animal. The Gap The trust held 25,671,360 shares per the June 29 filing. After the July 1 gift it held 25,171,360. After August 5 it held 24,671,360. The October 7 filing shows 23,671,360. That is a million shares down from August 5, and the filings list only 500,000. Coxe's own EDGAR feed shows no Form 4 between August 7 and October 9. Possible explanations include a September gift filed late or under another filer, or a correction I did not reach. I did not resolve it and I will not guess. It matters because insider forms are only as good as the chain of balances. Reading a Form 4 chain is like tracking a tide gauge. One odd reading is a bad sensor. Two in a row is the harbor changing. The Bull Case A gift moves no shares to market. Code G means no sale at any price. Supply to the open market is unchanged. The plan is pre-set. Adopted March 19, 2026 and cited on every gift, so timing is not a reaction to the stock. Holdings stay enormous. 23,671,360 trust shares plus 4,852,480 in the profit sharing trust, per the filings. The Bear Case Donees can sell. A gifted share can be sold by the recipient. The filing does not say who received these shares. The balance chain has a hole. A 500,000 share difference with no matching filing is a data-quality flag. The cadence is steady. Three gifts of identical size across four months reads like a program that continues. The SharkWater Take I am not building a trade on this and neither should you. A gift is not a sale, and the plan says this is mechanical. I care about the missing 500,000 shares. If it turns out to be a late or missing Form 4, that is worth a second post. If it is explained by a different filer, it goes in the noise bin. I have no verified NVDA price series for this week, so I will not value the gift or say what the market did with it. Tight lines, SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Semiconductor Desk • Annual Report Micron's 10-K: $133.2 Billion in Revenue, $59 Billion in Free Cash Flow, and Capex Nearly Doubled October 11, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Micron (Nasdaq: MU) filed its fiscal 2026 Form 10-K on October 9, 2026. Revenue for the 53 weeks ended September 3, 2026 was $133.19 billion, up from $37.38 billion a year earlier. Net income was $84.97 billion, or $74.33 per diluted share. Operating cash flow of $89.68 billion less $30.71 billion of capital spending leaves $58.96 billion of free cash flow (desk calculation). The company ended the year with $73.45 billion in cash and investments against $5.18 billion of debt. I have no verified MU price or volume series for the week, so the market reaction is NOT VERIFIED. The Year in Four Columns USD millions FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 Revenue 25,111 37,378 133,188 Gross margin 5,613 14,873 107,504 Operating income 1,304 9,770 99,340 Net income 778 8,539 84,969 Diluted EPS (USD) 0.70 7.59 74.33 Operating cash flow 8,507 17,525 89,675 Capital expenditures 8,386 15,857 30,712 Source: Micron Technology Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 3, 2026, filed October 9, 2026 (accession 0000723125-26-000023), financial statement pages R3 and R7. Fiscal 2026 had 53 weeks. Cash flow cells were read by an automated page reader and the source flagged some run-together cells in the prior-year columns; the FY2026 column was not flagged. What the Filing Adds Over the Press Release The September 30 earnings release gave the quarter. The 10-K gives the full year, audited, and the year is the bigger story. Revenue rose 3.56 times. Gross margin on the filed GAAP numbers was 80.7 percent for the year, against 39.8 percent in fiscal 2025. Net income was 63.8 percent of revenue. All three are desk arithmetic on the filed figures. Capital spending rose 94 percent to $30.71 billion, but fell as a share of revenue to 23.1 percent. That is the number to watch. A memory maker spending a quarter of revenue on fabs is normal. The prior two years in the table above show nothing like this combination. The segment split is concentrated by size. Fiscal 2026 revenue by business unit was CMBU $43.09 billion, CDBU $37.59 billion, MCBU $36.60 billion and AEBU $15.89 billion. By product, DRAM was $100.68 billion and NAND $31.79 billion. The business section says roughly half of revenue has come from the top ten customers in each of the last three years. A reservoir that more than triples in a wet year tells you about the rain. It does not tell you what the next dry year looks like. Balance Sheet and Capital Return USD millions Aug 28, 2025 Sep 3, 2026 Cash and equivalents 9,642 38,364 Short-term investments 665 5,070 Long-term marketable investments 1,629 30,019 Total debt (current plus long-term) 14,577 5,179 Total equity 54,165 138,378 Source: Micron Form 10-K, balance sheet page R4, filed October 9, 2026. Cash and investments total ($73,453 million) and debt totals are desk sums of the filed lines. Net cash of about $68.3 billion is a desk calculation. Debt fell by $9.4 billion in the year. Capital return was small: about $610 million of dividends and $650 million of program repurchases in fiscal 2026, per the cash flow page (some cells in that table were flagged as garbled by the reader; verify before quoting). Against $85 billion of net income, that is a rounding error. The dividend declared on September 30 is $0.15 per share, payable October 29, 2026. Shares outstanding were 1,131,423,212 on October 2, 2026, per the 10-K cover. What Is Still Open The filing text I could read covers risk factors, segment and product revenue, and the financial statements. It states that HBM3E 12-high was the majority of fiscal 2026 HBM shipments and that HBM4 36GB 12-high began volume production in 2026. I did not read MD&A, so there is no sourced fiscal 2027 capital spending outlook in this post. I also have no verified MU price series. Pre-market data for October 1 is an aggregator figure from the prior scan and is not used here. The Bull Case The cash pile is real. $73.45 billion in cash and investments against $5.18 billion of debt gives the company room to fund fabs, pay down the rest and still return capital, all out of one year of cash flow. Margins held at an extreme. An 80.7 percent GAAP gross margin for a full 53-week year is audited, not a quarter's peak. The guide for the next quarter, from the September 30 release, sits near 86 percent non-GAAP. The reinvestment rate is falling. Capex took 23.1 percent of revenue, down from 42.4 percent in fiscal 2025 (desk arithmetic). Revenue outran spending. The Bear Case Half the revenue sits with ten customers. The filing says so in plain words. A pause in orders from a few buyers moves the whole line. The year is a single point on a cycle. Revenue was $25.11 billion two fiscal years ago. A business that has swung from $0.78 billion to $84.97 billion of net income in two years has shown how fast it can swing back. Capex is still doubling. $30.71 billion is 1.94 times the prior year. New capacity lands into whatever demand exists when it comes online, and the filing's own risk factors flag HBM yield and cleanroom intensity. The SharkWater Take I will not turn an annual report into a trade, and this one does not need to be. The 10-K confirms what the September 30 release said, and adds the audited year: $59 billion of free cash flow and net cash of roughly $68 billion. The risk is the shape of the cycle, not the balance sheet. A company with this much cash survives a downturn. Whether the stock already prices that in is a different question, and I have no verified price series to answer it. Until I have one and the HBM and capex detail from MD&A, MU stays on the watch list, not the trade list. Tight lines, SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Data Centers • Insider Filings Nebius Insider Tape Sorted: One 500,000 Share Plan Sale and Four Routine Ones October 10, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Five Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS) insider sales hit EDGAR in the first week of October. Only one is large. COO Ophir Nave sold 500,000 shares on October 5, 2026 for roughly $117.8 million (desk calculation) under a 10b5-1 plan adopted May 22, 2026. The CEO, the Chief Infrastructure Officer and the CTO together sold 81,414 shares on October 1 at $234.16, about $19.1 million, and each Form 4 says the sale only covered tax on vesting units and was automatic. A director's trust sold 50 shares. Strip out the routine paper and the tape is one seller, and his plan says it is finished. Who Sold, and Why Seller Date Shares Price Type per filing Nave, COO 10/5/2026 500,000 $235.53 avg (desk calc) 10b5-1 plan, adopted 5/22/2026 Volozh, CEO 10/1/2026 37,778 $234.16 Tax withholding, automatic Korolenko, Chief Infrastructure Officer 10/1/2026 29,090 $234.16 Tax withholding, automatic Shtan, CTO 10/1/2026 14,546 $234.16 Tax withholding, automatic Boynton trust, director 9/29/2026 50 $235.01 10b5-1 plan, adopted 3/6/2026 Source: Nebius Group N.V. Forms 4 and Forms 144 on EDGAR: accessions 0001513845-26-000126 (Nave), -000120 (Volozh), -000118 (Boynton), -000122 (Shtan), -000124 (Korolenko, role per its Form 4), and Form 144 0001950047-26-010048 (Nave) and 0001950047-26-009868 (Boynton trust). Nave average price and all dollar totals computed by this desk from the filed rows. Sizing the Pile Nave's sale is 6.1 times the three tax sales combined. Against the 238,400,165 shares outstanding cited on the Nave Form 144, his sale is about 0.21 percent of the company and the tax sales together are about 0.03 percent. Neither moves the float. The tax sales are mechanical. Each Form 4 says the shares were sold when restricted share units vested, solely to cover estimated withholding, under automatic sale instructions in the unit agreement and not as a discretionary trade. After the sale the CEO still held 785,236 shares directly. The Boynton trust is a drip, not a surprise. Its September 29 Form 144 lists three earlier plan sales in the prior three months: 6,958 shares on July 15, 5,296 on August 14 and 6,364 on September 15, 18,618 shares for $4,144,629.26 in total. The 50 share sale is a stub on a monthly schedule. Five boats left the harbor this week. Three were ferries running on a timetable, one was a rowboat on its usual route, and one was a trawler hauling out half its direct catch. What Is Still Open Nave's Form 4 remarks state that no further sales will be made under his plan. That is the issuer's own filing, but a new plan can be adopted later, and the filing does not say when. This desk has no verified NBIS price or volume series for the week, so any market reaction to this selling is NOT VERIFIED. The Goldman Sachs 13G/A cut covered here yesterday sits alongside this paper but is a separate and unrelated filer. A correction to this desk's October 7 post: it gave October 7 as the Nave Form 4 filing date. The EDGAR feed shows filing date October 6, 2026, and the filing is signed October 6. The Bull Case Mostly mechanical. Four of five sales are tax cover or a standing monthly plan. None of them is a discretionary call on the stock. The big seller is done. Nave's remarks say no further sales under the May 22 plan, so the overhang from that plan is cleared. Small against the share count. All five sales together are about 0.24 percent of shares outstanding (desk arithmetic). The Bear Case The COO is the one with a choice. A plan is chosen in advance, and he chose to sell 500,000 shares, about 52 percent of his direct holding by the Form 4 balances. A new plan is one filing away. The remarks close this plan. They do not rule out the next one. Stacked on the Goldman cut. The bank's reported stake fell 43.6 percent between two 13G/A event dates. Different filers, same two weeks of supply. The SharkWater Take I have written about this tape for four straight days, and today's reading is the least alarming one. When the paper is sorted, one executive made a real sale and the rest is payroll mechanics. Nave's plan is closed, and that matters more to me than the headline dollar figure. The open item is the Goldman cut, which is flow I cannot explain. I do not have an edge on insider filings alone, and I will not invent one. I want a verified price series and the next 13G event date before NBIS gets a trade idea from me. Tight lines, SharkWater Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. All figures sourced as noted and accurate as of publication. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.

SharkWater Trading  •  Data Centers • Ownership Filings Goldman Sachs Cut Its Nebius Stake by 44 Percent in Two Months October 9, 2026 Bottom Line Up Front Yesterday this desk could not say whether Goldman's Nebius (Nasdaq: NBIS) Schedule 13G/A was a build or a cut. The prior amendment answers it. Amendment No. 1 (event date July 31, 2026) reported 23,111,112.59 Class A shares, 10.5 percent of the class. Amendment No. 2, filed October 7, 2026 (event date September 30, 2026), reports 13,023,110.37 shares, 5.1 percent. That is a drop of about 10.09 million shares, or 43.6 percent of the position (this desk's arithmetic). Why Goldman sold, and for whom, is not in the filing. The Two Filings Side by Side Filing Event date Shares % of class 13G/A No. 1 (0000886982-26-000308) 7/31/2026 23,111,112.59 10.5% 13G/A No. 2 (0000886982-26-000526) 9/30/2026 13,023,110.37 5.1% Source: Schedule 13G/A filings on EDGAR, Goldman Sachs Group and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, each reporting identical figures. Amendment No. 1 filing date not read by this desk; only its event date is shown. What It Does and Does Not Say Both filings report shared voting and dispositive power and zero sole power. Goldman files under Rule 13d-1(b), the institutional route. Exhibit 99.3 states the filing excludes shares held by operating units of the group. So this is the reporting entity's aggregate, not necessarily house inventory. A 13G does not separate client assets from the bank's own book, and it does not name a buyer. A drop of this size could be client outflows, hedge unwinds, or a market-making position shrinking. The form cannot tell us which. One note on the math. 10.5 percent implies a class near 220 million shares, and 5.1 percent implies about 255 million. Rounding and a changing share count could explain part of that. This desk did not find the denominators in either filing, so the implied counts are unreconciled. Yesterday we saw a big boat at the dock and could not tell if it was loading or unloading. The earlier log entry shows the hold was nearly twice as full in July. The Bull Case Passive, not conviction. A bank's 13G position moves with client flow. The reduction is not evidence of a negative view. Supply was absorbed. Roughly 10 million shares left one holder, and the filing discloses no forced event behind it. Still above the line. Goldman remains a 5.1 percent reporter, so it has not exited. The Bear Case A large holder cut its stake by 44 percent. Ten million shares is real supply, and it landed alongside the Nave Form 144 for 500,000 shares reported October 5, 2026. The line is one step away. At 5.1 percent, the next reduction could take Goldman below the reporting threshold and out of public view. Price reaction unknown. This desk had no primary price source for NBIS, so whether the market already reflects the sale is NOT VERIFIED. The SharkWater Take I read this as supply, not a verdict. Goldman's 13G tells me flow, and flow is not conviction. What bothers me is the stack: a 44 percent bank cut, a 500,000 share insider plan sale, and Form 4s from the same week. None of it is a thesis alone. Together it says the easy buyers have thinned. I am not taking a position off a passive filing. I want the next 13G event date and a verified NBIS price series before this becomes a trade idea. Tight lines, SharkWater Source: Schedule 13G/A Amendment No. 2, EDGAR accession 0000886982-26-000526, filed October 7, 2026, event date September 30, 2026; Schedule 13G/A Amendment No. 1, accession 0000886982-26-000308, event date July 31, 2026. Percent change is this desk's arithmetic. Educational and informational purposes only. Not personalized investment advice. The author may hold positions in securities discussed. Do your own work.