What's the contnued play?

We had good returns based on playing the obvious stimulus package that had to be passed.  It is however unfortunate that the US is now coming to grips with reality of how bad this is and April should be another down-turn as those number start to show.  Additionally, the extended lock-down is going to impact businesses and also energy, primarily, oil/gas... less people driving, more Saudi oil and US at capacity...

Play some negative inverses over the next few weeks, TVIX may climb but probably not like the original 30 - 1000 we saw as the fear is baked in.

SDC is a great bargain and will most likely be a great performer throughout next year and beyond once this subsides.

We have seen crypto diverge from the market a bit, which is a good thing.  LTC has a good support right now, but I'd wait to pick up dips over the next few weeks.

Happy Trading!

So How Did Our Reccomendations Do?

Not bad if you started layering in when we posted last.  The stimulus was a necessity so anything positive was going to cause a bounce.  Today NCLH was the top traded stock on the exchange, a quick 40+ % return.  CCL is one that looks as though it's now being bought by the pros as it has a hefty dividend yield at this point and even with a few lower quarters will rebound. 

Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL)

Carnival was a good dividend play before the crisis.  It's yield as of today was: 15.74%.  Something to chase?  The overall premise is to buy just about any quality stock right now and gain some fairly hefty profits in the next 6-18 months.  Do we think the cruise liner can still give back $2/share to the consumer at a $9 price-tag?

They just borrowed $3B for the next six-months and are cancelling cruises impacting port and port town economies.  Quarterly results are sure to suffer and price-targets most likely to fall...  Can they maintain this level of dividend and does it matter in the short term, if things fully recover in 18 months?  If so, then the stock should be back above $40 and life is good catching a 15% dividend down here plus cap appreciation.

Carnival has warned of "material negative impact."  You think?  they've stopped cruising and they have to disinfect everything and the US is just starting to realize this is real and the impact is growing.  They've drawn on their credit facility for the $6B to maintain liquidity.

So the premise is, the virus isn't as bad for the general and healthy population, it is straining economics, social and health infrastructures but it will pass, a vaccine will be found and a few months later everyone will forget... just like every other disaster.  Is the cruise industry all of a sudden dead? No.  At an 83% discount and a dividend we'll never see again in our lifetime this is not a bad play to make.

However, you must have patience... Carnival said:  The spread of the coronavirus has made it impossible to project earnings, the company said, but it expects to have a loss in the year ending Nov. 30.

Norwegian(NCLH) is another but no dividend.

Happy Trading!

LiteCoin! (LTC)

I know Crypto Currency can be a wild ride however, if you're going to invest in Crypto, LiteCoin is it.  I was going to open a position back in December when it pulled back but missed that.  The current crisis has enabled a prime buying opportunity and my target of low-30's has been triggered recently.  So I am happy to be in.

What I'm seeing now is some consolidation this week around 33 even with the massive cliff-dives the overall market has been taking.  As far as charting goes, not a bad recoil position but this is Crypto.  It does look like a potential floor may be in.  The high around 2017 was upwards of $400.  So, no, it's not a BitCoin $19,000 rise potential... yet...

Also, since Crypto Currencies are "mined" and the electricity it takes to effectively mine coin can be quite expensive to mine quickly, the drop in prices has shown a good drop in the mining of the premier coin, BitCoin.  LiteCoin algorithms are much more efficient and require much less in the way of power to mine rapidly giving it another edge to become a prime, not just a top-10 currency.

Happy Currency Trading!

I Sold TVIX (Volatility) Early... and What I'm doing about it

I had bought volatility into market strength to hold for potential economic breakdown or world events that would drive up fear quickly.  Of course I chose a leveraged ETF from VelocityShares, the TVIX.  It is a very volatile ETF that during the 2008 financial collapse made people a lot of money... I mean a lot.  

I had always told myself I'd buy as the economy was strong and save it for a "rainy day."  Well who would have known a little novel virus would erase three-years of market gain in a matter of weeks?  I didn't.  I did follow at least one-rule and that is buy the fear... or in the inverse VIX case, sell the fear as the VIX jumped.  Add in a little desire to free up some cash to buy something else and when the vix jumped 20% one-day... I sold.  ...around 60 some bucks... Yeah... I'm drinking. No, not really stuff happens

Today's StockTwit snap below shows you that lesson learned.  A few days later and the world started to see the impact of the virus it almost became obvious to wait because it was going to be bad.

TVIX is a lifetime high and hit a $1000 today.  So, once again folks made a lot of money!!!  No, not me on this one...

So, if there is an inverse VIX, are there bullish ETFs that track the positive movement as well as leveraged ETFs that track the same.  Of  course.

In addition to the Virus pandemic, Russia and Saudi are going at it with oil so energy stocks took a hit as well.  Yes, everything else did too but I'm singling out energy because part of my recovery plan is a leverage bull energy stock: Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X Shares, ERX that has been stripped, whipped and beaten from the mid teens to less than a dollar.  Yes, this is a 3x leveraged index of large-cap US energy companies.

I was buying in when it was at fifty-some odd cents today.  I'm buying this one because it's fallen so ridiculously and it's holdings aren't worth so much more.  Will it recover to where it was? It might not as soon as other things we're looking at but even a bump is going to make you good money here at this discount.  It's up almost 70% to over .7.  That's the volatile nature of these things.  I'm holding this until above $5 though.

There are a few other leveraged ETFs we'll look at to accelerate recovery as well as the cruise-lines an IPO and some other tickers as well in the next few posts.

Happy Trading!

Buy The Fear and Wait

No it's not like catching a falling knife.  By LTC, By CCL, By XOM, By BP, buy CYBR, buy FEYE, buy everything else that was up some 500% a few weeks ago and hold.  By Jet Blue, Buy Norwegian...

Buy, Buy, Buy

Happy Trading!