New Site

I have started a new blog...

Workinginvestments.blogspot.com

This is showcasing my recent trading activity and strategies that have proven usuefull and profitable even though I still have my full-time job...

Check it out and post any comments you have.

San Pedro Sula, Honduras Support Trip

So not ever blogging about supporting others as was the main intent of the blog here are some pics of a recent trip I had the opportunity to participate in with my company. We went to 3 orphanages and a detention center.


I cannot stress the conditions and environment these children have to live in but am truly blessed to have been able to meet all of them. I literally had to find a room to hide into because I was physically tired of lifting all these kids over my head. I guess it doesn't matter where you are, kids like the helicopter ride.



I was also able to give away several of my wife's Beanie Babies to children at the Nueva Esperanza Center...



If you ever get the chance to go on a orphan/mission trip I highly recommend it. This particular trip was sponsored by my small company in conjunction with Orphan Helpers ( link on the top left of the blog).



We also got to set up a computer lab at the Mujeres Adolescentes center for the girls to use and learn on. No running water or air conditioning but we were able to get a 20 amp circuit for the 7 systems.



This was an awesome opportunity and I am truly grateful to have been given the opportunity. Although supporting children through other programs and monthly pledges is great, I now have 6 kids sponsored, this is truly an awesome experience. We are going back in a few months.

Earnings Week Update

Yes, I have been silent for a while, I have not only been very busy quickly becoming an options expert, but recently got back from Honduras and South Carolina as well.  So what has happened lately.  Obviously a bear market. I got out at the beginning of the bear at 82.50, then back in at 69.95.  I also bought 20 contracts of MA 340 August Calls and sold some Visa 65 August Puts.  Visa reports on the 30 and Mastercard reports on the 31^st.  MA has already guided strong and of course Visa is quiet… The plan is to ride up to and over earnings then get out as the banks and individual investors begin to take profits.  The Olympic revenue will be part of  next quarter and will be watching closely to play the swing trade.  I am currently looking for some solid monthly income plays selling calls and puts.

 

If I have time I’ll try to get back to updating the blog a little more regularly… Until then happy trading…

And the news we have been waiting for (SIRI)

Remember the hype on Sirius radio, how it was supposed to double in
price b/c of the merger talks with XM. Well it is one-step closer, and
this might just have been the biggest step needed to finalize the
deal...

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/16/technology/sirius_xm.ap/index.htm=

Dividends for all

FRO – mentioned this before, price is gone way up, wait for a pull back and then get in

HGT

ARA

TNH

BAC – financials are about to cut their dividend rates, play the short option.

NHP

ReneSola IBD #5

If you were paying attention a few months ago I mentioned this stock SOL
at its IPO. Unfortunately I dropped the bubble on tracking it as I was
preparing to buy Visa and like most people spending my time researching
its potential.

So SOL is now up almost 400% in a few short months. How far can it go,
another First Solar (FSLR)? I am not sure but I am starting to spend
more time researching it. Currently it is in very good favor as it is
IBD's #5 pick in the IBD top 100. It recently secured a five year
contract for polysilicon which is required to make solar wafers. This
has always been a sticking point in the "raw materials" required for
solar stocks. Their earnings were amazing and I did try to put a limit
in for 23.30 but my block never got touched and it has been driving
higher since. I am looking at this from a LONG perspective and will
keep watching to see what the next buy point might be.

2 Tickers w/ Potential

Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG) CEO own over 30% and will retire in the next 3-years.  Will try to maximize shareholder value.   Moving into new product lines as well. Estimated 50-80% growth over the next 2-3 years…

 

POOL  Corp, currently well values with projected 09 earnings and pays 2.4% dividend.

 

Research, research research.

Rackspace Files for IPO

I remember when Rackspace moved into its new facility on the northwest side of town.  Huge warehouse, cheap rent.  This is another one of those companies “I grew up with” like VMWare.  I will be watching this one, as usual, rather closely.

 

About Rackspace:

 

Rackspace Hosting delivers a diverse suite of enterprise-class hosted IT services to businesses of all sizes. Customers choose Rackspace for its hosting specialization and expertise, backed by the company’s award-winning Fanatical Support®. By integrating the industry’s best technologies and delivering them as services, Rackspace Hosting serves as an extension of its customers’ IT departments. Because Rackspace Hosting removes the burden of infrastructure maintenance and management, customers can focus on their core business.

 

Get Your Prospectus:

 

Copies of the preliminary prospectus for the offering, when available, may be obtained from Goldman, Sachs & Co., Attention: Prospectus Department, 85 Broad Street, New York, New York 10004, by facsimile at 212-902-9316 or by e-mail at prospectus-ny@ny.email.gs.com; from Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, Prospectus Department, One Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010, telephone 800-221-1037; and from Merrill Lynch & Co., 4 World Financial Center, New York, NY 10080, telephone 866-500-5408.

 

 

Awesome Technical Analysis

Found this site from looking at Google financial discussions this
morning, while researching V.

http://www.stockta.com/

It does show V on a great Bullish trend with resistance in the low 80s.

Very useful tool for those of us that don't have time to crunch all the
numbers all the time!

Intrepid Up on POT earnings

POT is up over 6 this morning was at 216 after yesterday's earnings beat
expectations by 50%. IPI is following suit and it up almost 2$ in the
AM. Waiting for IPI to rise on strong volume, although news this
morning indicates IPI underwriters to buy shares and they are exercising
their right to buy 4.5M more.

My new retirement plan-FRO

This is one of those companies that must give back profits to the shareholders and averages a 17% return.  Mostly in ordinary dividends and some as return on capital.  Also they have really big ships!  Suez Canal Class.  There chart shows distinct buy and sell trends over the year.  Just need to do some research on what the US requires for claiming ordinary dividends and having to hold for 60-days in the 121 days prior to an ex-dividend date.

 

FRONTOLINE, LTD.

 

Frontline, Ltd., through subsidiaries, engages primarily in the ownership and operation of oil tankers, including oil/bulk/ore (OBO) carriers. The company primarily transports crude oil, as well as raw materials like coal and iron ore. It operates tankers of two sizes, very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which are between 200,000 and 320,000 deadweight tons (dwt); and Suezmaxes, which are vessels between 120,000 and 170,000 dwt. Its VLCCs are used for the transportation of crude oil from the Middle East Gulf to the Far East, Northern Europe, the Caribbean, and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port. Frontline's Suezmax tankers are used for trading primarily in the Atlantic Basin and the Middle East to south east Asia. Its OBO carriers transport oil and dry cargo. The company also engages in the charter, purchase, and sale of vessels. Its customers include oil companies, petroleum products traders, government agencies, and various other entities. As of May 31, 2007, Frontline's tanker fleet consisted of 81 vessels. The company was founded in 1948 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Blockbuster, Netflix or how about Apple TV

Just like the old sci-fi movies, just press a button and watch any movie you want…  Apple is no doubt set to dominate the consumer audio experience with all the I Pod stuff available and now how about this…  Let’s watch all those You Tube videos on our widescreen TV’s !!!!!

 

This adds the I want it now convenience that Netflix lacks and you don’t have to drive to Blockbuster.  BBI, NFLX I’m thinking AAPL!

 

·        Rent HD movies with Dolby Digital 5.1 surround sound

·        Buy TV shows and music

·        Browse Flickr and .Mac Web Gallery photos

·        Watch millions of YouTube videos

·        Play content from your computer on your widescreen TV

Apple TV turns your living room into an on-demand movie theater. After a free software update, with a few clicks of the remote, you can rent HD movies from the same place you watch them — your widescreen TV.

Key Features & Benefits:
	·  Buy TV shows and music
		Buy your favorite shows commercial free — as well as songs and music videos directly from your Apple TV
	·  160 GB hard drive
		Provides up to 200 hours of video
	·  Show off your photos
		Free your photos from the web and see them on your widescreen TV; you can also access your Flickr photos or .Mac Web Gallery with a click
	·  Watch YouTube on your TV
		"Watch YouTube videos on the big screen and enjoy thousands of free videos, including the top featured, most viewed, and top rated "
	·  Requirements
		Widescreen (16 x 9) enhanced-definition or high-definition television with an HDMI, DVI, or component video input port Wired or wireless network iTunes Store account Broadband Internet connection (fees may apply)
	·  What's in the box
		Apple TV Apple remote Power cord Printed documentation
	·  Additional Features
		Mac and PC compatibility 802.11n Wi-Fi wireless

 

Intrepid Day 2

So here is my story of stupidity, I actually bought Intrepid at 50.55 last night.  Being a smart and wise investor I went and meant to place a stop loss of 49 to cover my risk if Intrepid were to tank today.  Good idea, right.  So when you are making these types of moves you must pay attention to what you actually click because making a limit order instead of a stop limit order can cause sudden palpitations of the heart.

 

Yes, I did and as quickly as I bought them they were sold.  Fortunately for me I only lost around $40 instead of what I would have lost today as Intrepid sank in the afternoon.

 

So what happened, yesterday Intrepid was being sold on strength, even though the price was rising more shares were being sold.  This is one sign of serious profit taking and in my opinion a sign of a speculative stock, since emotion and news tend to ignite buying.

 

Do I think there is potential with Intrepid? Absolutely.  But here are some of the things I am looking at: one, Intrepid only counts for 1.5% of the world’s total Potash supply.  Two, they primarily or almost completely sell domestically.  That means all the price hikes of tremendous proportions aren’t having a direct impact yet here in North America.  Not to think that it won’t soon.

 

Trying to figure a good buy point is going to be difficult, obviously if I said to buy at 50.55 many people would be pretty ticked off today.  With only one day of charts to look at and not much background info, although what I posted earlier is obviously promising, I am hesitant to make a comment on what to do currently. 

 

This should definitely be a strong long-term holding and if it follows what other Potash suppliers, albeit much larger, are doing will return nice profits.

 

By the way, CITI had positive guidance on most Potash supply companies.

Fertilizer Supply and Demand

Not to mention food shortages and rising food prices. The demand for
potash is increasing tremendously and so is the price...

Chinese fertilizer importers agree to pay over 300% more than what they
paid almost a year ago.

Canpotex has agreed to sell potash in 2008 to Sinofert Holdings for
$576/on more than $400/ton higher than the price it paid a year ago.

Belarussian Potash Corp., also agreed to raise prices to Chinese
importers by $400/ton.

Both Canpotex and Belarussian have agreed to sell potash to India for
$625/ton in 2008, more than double the price the country paid in 2007.

Not to be like all those comparing Visa to Mastercard but try POT and
MON for some price comparisons.

Intrepid Potash IPO next week!

More Intrepid

Intrepid has raised its share offering and estimated price per share…

 

The Denver-based company now expects the offering to total 30 million shares and price between $27 and $29 apiece. Intrepid previously expected the offering to total 24 million shares and price between $24 and $26 per share.

 

In 2007, the company reported earnings from continuing operations of $29.7 million, compared with $24.1 million in 2006. Total sales rose to $213.5 million from $152.7 million in the prior year.

 

Given the global demand for fertilizer and the increased earnings and sales over the last year this is one to watch.

 

Great company background can be found here: http://www.themanufacturer.com/us/profile/3853/Intrepid_Potash_Mining?PHPSESSID=c88bc

 

Fertilizer IPO

Have you been watching some of the biggest money maker potentials out there.  Potash, mainly Intrepid potash and its forthcoming IPO.  What is potash you say, in short fertilizer.  Fertilizer that is in high demand around the world.  A U.S. based company, Intrepid is the country's largest producer of muriate of potash, or potassium chloride, a fertilizer that helps regulate plants' physiological functions and improves plant durability.  Ticker to be IPI on the NYSE.

CROX

Crox is up at the bell on strong volume... This could be the breakout
we have been looking for to buy on... Strong uptrend since April 1.
News is good, analyst ranking is good. Summer is coming and Paris
Hilton is wearing them, at least according to the YouTube video...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdYs7mvvenA

What's Visa Doing?

Not too bad in my opinion.  It seems to have found a new base around 64.  Options interest is high around 65 over the next few months.  Institutions and earnings are due to get involved and report in a few weeks and Visa will be exiting its quiet period here soon and start talking about what it is doing.  It’s still a good time to buy before news causes some momentum.  No it’s not another Mastercard for all the reasons you can find on a gazillion financial blogs and discussion groups but there is nothing stopping it from being or beating Mastercard performance.  It will all depend on investor interest and more importantly, again, how Visa positions itself for growth and alternative revenue streams as no-contact technology becomes more ubiquitous and of course, how it penetrates the Chinese and other markets… 

 

Visa has been very consistent with finding its floors and ceilings and the last few days seem to have driven the floor to 64…  A good sign that getting in now is fairly safe against a wide-gap drop in place…

What about Crox?

I have posted about Crox in the past and now it is hitting the headlines again.  Crox is on the rise with several analyst recommending it as a buy.  The target price is $44.  This makes sense since the company is profitable, utilizes little to no debt and has a positive outlook for sales and earnings.  Yes it is holding excessive inventory but summer is coming and its international business is doing very well.  They are also expanding their line to appeal to more customers, and yes I actually saw a pair of Crox sandals I would wear the other day while shopping at Dicks.  The chart looks very promising this week, could be a break-out.  It is still heavily owned by institutions and volume is staying strong.  I would recommend getting in around 22 if the chart supports a continued run and set a limit to sell at 44, no need to be greedy, as if a 100% return isn’t greedy.

Visa IPO Follow-up!

So trying to read the news and other people's opinions on Visa should have you confused at best. I think I should change careers and become a financial advisor, since you don't ever have to be right nor consistent to sell your services to those trying to figure out what to do with their money. I have seen Cramer go from everyone shoudl buy Visa to having a bearish stance on it a few days ago. Most blogs or comments on Google Finance sway from buy now at before it continues to climb to sell because it's going to test its IPO price and beyond.

Since I am not a fincancial advisor I will stick with my original story of buying some at the open, then more as it dips and then make a last run as it begins to climb on some strong volume and instituitional interest.

I have purchased three times now, first at 56.70, then 64.60 and finally at 60.05. My cost basis is right around 60 even. Had I not bought the first round I would be negative right now as are much of the people I know. Not by much but it is never a good feeling to put a chunk of money into a stock and continue to see red when you check your account.

The strategy worked so far. But the question is will Visa rise, and if so when. Well, if I could answer those questions with a high probability I wouldn't be writing this blog... So let's take a semi-educated view on this. At first look, it's Visa so of course it's going to grow and probably surpass Mastercard. This is what a lot of people have said and are still saying. This is purely an emotional investment strategy, not to say it will not perform like this but still not based on facts and figures.

The latest news about the lawsuit investigation about interprocessing fees in the EU already hit Mastercard and didn't effect its price. Besides Vise Europe is not included in the IPO shares.

Asian market commentators are talking about the numbers of users potentially available and the current talks of "card technologies" that contain the Visa logo on them. So this is good news, since for the stock to grow, either investors buy it up ( push the P/E way up or it grows legitimally because the company has grown...

The stock has been porforming very well in relation to the market, very very low volume right now. No radical price fluctuations and has not challenged any new floor.

Once institutions are allowed to buy, and if they do, this will help us individual investors since there's nothing like watching what the big-guys are doing with the stock and following suit, sometimes...

Finally, the insider buying at the original IPO price is somewhat encouraging. Albeit, these guys, who do not need the extra money, could turn around and sell it for a 20$ increase and make some quick profits. But usually a good sign when insiders are buying and not exercising options to turn around to sell.

I have been watching moving averages and bolinger bands when I bought just to add a little technical credance to what I was doing, I did get in a good price points within the day by watching the charts and buying after-hours.

My plan is to ride this out until the economy stabilizes and institutions start buying as well as watching the options when they become available and buy as the indicators support buying as well.

My last word for the day is to hold on to this over the next 12-18 months before deciding to do anything. That is unless the market falls out...

First Day IPO Trivia

An interesting bit or trivia from the SF Gate this morning...

How some previous well-known IPOs faired their first day...

Company Date IPO price Closing price Gain

Visa 3/19/2008 $44 $56.50 28%
MasterCard 5/25/2006 39 46.00 18
Google 8/20/2004 85 100.34 18
UPS 11/10/1999 50 68.12 36
EBay 9/24/1998 18 47.38 163
Netscape 8/9/1995 28 58.25 108

Pulled the trigger

It looks like the floor, at least for today, was around $55-56. I bought a third at 56.70 in the aftermarket. Will keep watching the charts and volume for the next two trigger pulls. Keep this for the long term 12 months and 1 day and enjoy the profits at a 15% tax rate...

Downward Momentum on Visa?

Looks like Visa has found a floor for now around the 55-56$ mark. Keep
watching the momentum and buy accordingly. I think anything below 50
would be a good deal but it might stay depressed for a while. Remember,
Mastercard was below it's open for about a month and half...

I currently have a limit order in at 50, will adjust if momentum
dictates.

Visa Near Real Time Bid Ask

Here ya go... People are trying to make some money today. Largely Bid
prices are below $60.

http://datasvr.tradearca.com/arcadataserver/JArcaBook.php?Symbol=v&x=12&y=6

It's Official $44

$44 a share $2 above expected high…

Visa Quick Update

Nothing official, but some sights are reporting the shares will price
$1-3 above the max range. This puts the IPO price between $43 and 47.
In addition other "experts" have said the real price should have been
around $73 based on current valuation. Good luck to all...

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The Big Winners of the Visa IPO will be

The big winners of Wednesday's IPO will be:

JP Morgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), selling roughly
28.7 million shares for proceeds of as much as about $1.2 billion.

Buying Bear Stearns for $2/share... Just over $200M, something
to do with the over $1B mark...

Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), selling roughly
14.3 million shares for proceeds of as much as about $600 million.

National City Corp (NCC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), selling roughly
9.9 million shares for proceeds of as much as about $416 million.

Citigroup Inc (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research), selling roughly 6.9
million shares for proceeds of as much as about $290 million.

U.S. Bancorp (USB.N: Quote, Profile, Research), selling roughly 6.2
million shares for proceeds of as much as about $260 million.

Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), selling roughly 6.2
million shares for proceeds of as much as about $260 million.

Source: Visa Inc amended registration statement with the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission, with proceeds calculated based on an IPO price
of $42 per share. (Reporting by Lilla Zuill, editing by Gerald E.
McCormick)

Visa IPO Price Date Moved

According to Goldman Sachs the pricing of the IPO is being moved to
Tuesday instead of Wednesday...

A Golden Play, Is Gold ready to jump... Again?

In light of all the recent market news, economic outlook, weakness in the dollar and now troubles in the African Mines w/ power is looks like the best time to buy gold.  Current analyst are pointing to an 1100/oz price in the next few months.  Below are some top performing ETFs and Trusts.  Two almost mirror each other and have equal expense ratios that are extremely low at .4% providing some options, mainly who you like better.  Both have a long-term positive history and invest directly in Gold Bullion… Nothing else.

 

Rankings from the Street:

 

Name                                                             Peer Rank     Ticker       YTD         1 Year  3 Year  Expense Ratio

 

Market Vectors TR Gold Miners                          7              GDX        7.24         27.04       0             0.55

Central Fund of Canada                                       6              CEF         13.67       28.53      33.03      0.43

Gabelli Global Gold Nat Res&Income                 8              GGN       -4.56        22.22       0              1.17

iShares Silver Trust                                               10            SLV         13.08       24.09       0              0.5

Central Gold-Trust                                                9              GTU        14.85       40.52       21.48       0.34

PowerShares DB Silver Fund                               5              DBS         12.1         21.64       0              0.54

PowerShares DB Precious Metals Fund             2              DBP         8.17         32.3         0             0.79

PowerShares DB Gold Fund                                1              DGL        7.5           35.53       0              0.54

iShares COMEX Gold Trust                             4              IAU         8.31        38.77      29.1        0.4

streetTRACKS Gold Shares ETF                        3              GLD        8.36         39            29.16       0.4

 

Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) is a pure ETF holding several Gold Mines (no pun intended) and manufactures that have almost all returned over 25% YTD.  Hence the number 1 position from the street.  That coupled with a .55% expense ratio makes it a great opportunity as well.

 

So what about Silver, Copper and platinum???  Aren’t people stealing copper out of everything they can to re-sell?  Silver has been climbing as well.  Platinum which is Gold on steroids is expected to be trading at 2500/oz in the next month as well.  Something to look into...

 

Strategy to Buy Visa

So you have you're money in your trading account ready for the 20th...
What is the best way to execute a buy or buys and get in at a low price
and not have all your money tied up in case the stock doesn't do what
everyone thinks it will... Let's look at Visa's counterpart Mastercard:

MasterCard first day close: $46
Down to $44 within the first 5 days of trading.
Stayed below $46 for most of the first two months.

As you see there would have been opportunity to buy and still make a lot
of money. This is relatively true of most IPOs. Everyone wants to get
in so they buy at the open and then the profit takers take their profits
and sink the stock a little, sometimes a lot.

So the intent of a buying strategy is to ensure you obtain some shares
in case there is no pull back but hedge against a pull back and limit
the loss if the pull back is wide. If the stock doesn't go down and you
buy more over the first several weeks the problem is your cost basis
rises, but you still own Visa and it's better to buy up then down. If
it does go down and you buy over the first several weeks your cost basis
goes down. Either way you are ensuring yourself a chance to get in on
Visa and ride the long term investment.

My strategy is evolving; I am currently taking a thirds approach, I will
place an order to buy 1/3 of my investment at my comfort price and then
watch for a pull-back, possibly take some profits if I can time it right
then buy another 1/3 or 2/3 plus profits. Finally if there aren't any
more indicators of a pullback I'll pull the trigger on the last 1/3...
Geeky sounding but it should work...

If you are able to buy at your comfort price on the opening day do so
but for those that can't there should be time to get in at the same if
not slightly lower price as the open.

Anyone else have a strategy for buying IPOs let us know!

Response to "What about BIDU?"

BIDU was IBD's #1 of their top 100 for a while but this year BIDU has
made moves to acquire multiple companies to help propel them in the
future. They are/should remain a strong long holding but I don't see
the large rapid increase this year as the past.

For less risk I'd go with QQQQ for now. It's an ETF that plays GOOG,
RIMM, AAPL. All way undervalued right now. Not internationally based
but a good long-term holding with dividends. It is one of the most
active trades on sharebuilder.

CROX Rebound?

CROX is starting to move, volume is showing stong buys and even a Crox
Director buys 250,000 shares, In a Form 4 filed with the SEC, Michael
Marks reported he bought the shares for $19.87 to $20 apiece on
Thursday. The floor may have been hit. A couple more trading sessions
like this and it could be a strong positive sign of a rebound... I like
the fact the the director bought at the 20$ mark. No options exercised,
etc shows strong belief in the companies future...

Visa IPO Prospectus

Some light reading for those that are interested…

 

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1403161/000119312508036833/ds1a.htm

 

Still receiving great news ahead of next week’s debut.  IBD highlighted today in the news…

Great article on Block Buster vs. Netflix

Could this be a potential 3 or 4 banger? Not that I'm speculating...

Check it out here:
http://community.investopedia.com/news/IA/2008/And_The_Award_For_Best_Mo
vie_Rental_Company_Goes_To.aspx

Extra, More Visa IPO Thoughts

It’s been quiet lately on the news front so I decided to make my own.  It’s getting close and the local crowd has been maneuvering investments as needed to free up some cash to invest on either 19 or 20 March just depending which one of us gets lucky.  So the question is to invest the day it opens after the IPO or wait until the pullback, should there be a noticeable pullback.  Well here are my thoughts, as usual…  There are two things that I am focusing on and neither of them are things you can really research your way into a strong decision.  One, is who is really making out and why now.  I’m thinking the answer to number one is the banks that are going to make about 10B out of this and are in need of some cash on the books given the current credit crisis.  That is the abridged explanation as to the who and why now question.  The second question is how much can Visa really grow given the PE that they are opening (Ok, PEs don’t necessarily mean that much) with the current environment.  Now the second part is the purely speculative or this question.  You either say as times get rougher with the economy people will turn to credit to buy things and pay over time or you say people will  not use credit as much out of fear of not having the same income due to job changes/losses or loss of equity in their homes.  So who is right?  Don’t know, I guess we could do some statistics and call a number of people and get somewhat of a technical indicator but… that’s not going to happen.  I see momentum and interest driving the price higher than the IPO then a pullback and becoming a good long-term holding.  Also, is their really much room for Visa to grow.  Growth is the question.  Will Visa be a good holding, most likely, but growth is what we are after next to dividends.  If it doesn’t grow it doesn’t chase MasterCard and after all that has been the most scientific benchmark I’ve seen since the announcement…  I guess some research into market coverage for Visa and MC and take an analytical approach to determine growth potential…   Not much time left we’ll see if I decide to be analytical or speculative…

Blockbuster or Netflix

Now I don't remember if I actually discussed Netflix back in the last
6-months, but had I and you bought in it would have been around 17/share
back in September. Which is what picked it up at. At the time the big
deal was home much business they were taking from Blockbuster. Then BB
did its thing with mail-order movie rentals. Many things happened and
BB started dropping fairly quickly and it now looks as though it may be
well oversold and has reached a bottom. Current Citi analyst from
yesterday:

Citi adds Blockbuster Inc (NYSE: BBI) to the 'Top Picks Live' List.
Price target $8.

Citi analyst says, "At the current depressed valuation level, we see
limited downside to BBI. BBI has several opportunities for BBI to boost
results, including: 1) share gains from in-store competitors, 2)
improvements in Total Access terms/pricing, 3) an improving title line
up, 4) the store base revamp, and 5) the five point distribution
strategy (in-store, on-line, by mail, kiosks, and flash card media).
Furthermore, we believe the movie rental business should hold up well in
a tough economic environment as it is one of the cheapest forms of
entertainment."

Now this sounds great a possible 400% increase but from a $2 stock,
everyone can get in on that. It's not like waiting for Visa at $40 a
share and hoping it does the Master Card thing but real potential for
the rest of us without the millions to spare.

My recommendation. BB is still doing well, gave surprising results
recently, they are still everywhere to be seen, some of it's competition
is going out of business (mainly movietime) and they are very well
valued currently. Watch for the price increase supported by strong
volume then buy some and continue to buy up.

BTW NFLX is trading at 31.23 currently, almost a 100% in the past 6
months.

Visa IPO Question

I am expecting an intitial surge based purely on momentum. Then a
slight pull-back, I don't see it dropping below it's IPO price. Most
people are betting it will do well based on MasterCards IPO. The only
difference is MC opened around 19$/share which put it in a low PE in the
low teens I think. Currently MC is trading around a PE of 22-25. Visa
will open, if it opens at about $40, at a PE around 22-25. So unless
there is a lot of interest it might not grow as quickly as MC (400% in
two years). I am looking to make a quick profit, take it out and then
wait for the pullback to buy as a long term holding. VMW shot to 125
before it pulled back. Now it's back around $60. It's PE was off the
chart to start with. As IBD says PE doesn't always mean anything. I
have seen a lot of conflicting information about how much international
market share Visa has compared to MC which, in today's environment, can
make a difference. It is planning on reserving cash for its litigation.
So I don't see much risk in the investment, just need to keep taps on
the expectations.

Response to Pre-Market IPO Trade Comment

When VISA begins trading on the secondary market, can it be traded on that day in the PRE-MARKET extended hours (i.e. 8am ET) or will it debut it's first time at the 9:30am ET bell?


Depending on the brokerage... TDAmeritrade allowed me to get in on VMW a few minutes before the pre-market opened. I had to keep submitting my order until it took.

Additionally E-trade has an IPO option that will allow qualified people to get in on the original IPO as shares are spread out to brokerage houses. With the number of shares available there should be some to go around. The defenition of qualified is not entirely clear based on other user's experience. It is supposed to determine if someone is suited to make such speculative investments.

Why XTO ?

More than just because Cramer said so...

A true growth enterprise

Targeting 20% production growth in 2008

A top-ranking owner and producer of domestic natural gas

Fourth largest owner of domestic gas reserves among the independents
Currently producing more than 1.671 Bcfe/d of gas per day
'Top-10' natural gas producer in the U.S.

Highly efficient franchise

One of the lowest 'finding & development' costs in the sector
Five-year all-in reserve replacement of 518%
Strong operating margins yielding strong full-cycle economics

Tremendous upsides

Have identified 7.3 Tcfe of low-risk resource potential to drill
About 5 years of low-risk growth inventory 'in hand'

Low-risk, high-return strategy

Acquire the best 'legacy' properties
Apply rigorous engineering and geologic work, along with pioneering
innovation
Prove-up and develop more reserves and production
Seek project economic returns better than 30%

Financial performance

FirstCall consensus projection of more than $3.8 billion in cash flow
for 2008
Significant oil & gas hedges through 2008

Stock price performance

Appreciation of 5744% from 1993 IPO through January 2008
The IPO stock price of $13 has increased to more than $759 through
January 2008
(when not adjusted for stock splits)

Proven management

Company founder actively manages company
Senior executives together 25+ years
Management owns more than 6% of XTO stock

Beginning Investment Question-Visa IPO

I recently had a question regarding what brokerage to use to get in on
perhaps the Visa IPO and to begin learning short-term trading.

I would recommend zecco.com for a first-time-trader, you get up to 10
commision free trades/month and decent tools. I would recommend playing
on paper first. Pick a few companies you know, things you buy, etc and
put them on a spreadsheet with a notional pool of money and track a
small portfolio. This usually leads to questions of why did X do well
and Y do poorly, when I thought Y was a safe bet and X was risky? For
me this is the best way to learn as it prompts more research which is
key to successful investing.

If you are going to try and buy Visa, a strategy is to open up a limit
order pre-market open, depending on pricing from the 19th and start with
a set amount then buy up if the outcome is positive and strong.
Example, purchase 25K the day it opens then add to that at intervals
until I hit my 50K mark. Then set another limit order to sell at
pre-determine prices. Lot's of jargin there I know but essentialy I am
putting in what I feel comfortable taking a hit on then if it does well
will continue to buy over time limiting my risk exposure.

Limits are essentially a way to place an order to buy or sell when the
stock hits a certain price, and only at that price. Example I buy 100
shares of XYZ by placing a limit order of 100 shares @ $10 when the
stock hit's $10 dollars my order is automatically executed. I set
another limit order to sell 100 shares of XYZ at $8. that way if the
stock does poorly I only take a 20% hit, this is how you control your
risk of loss. Also, I can also set another order (on more advanced
trading systems) to trigger a sell, say, 100 shares of XYZ at $20 and
take all my initial capitol out plus a 100% profit. The latter example
is called a trade trigger on Ameritrade. Then you have the stop-limit
as well, which is simmilar but the order becomes a market order at your
limit price which means you could pay more or less than you anticipated.

Good definition here: http://www.sec.gov/answers/limit.htm

So my bottom line recommendation for those wanting to invest in stocks
is to start with some Electronically Traded Funds (ETFs), similar to
mutual funds but with more trading felixibility. This way your risk and
volitility is reduced because you get the benefit of broad securities
under one fund. The India ETF just opened, great international, albeit
one country, exposure while having an interest in many companies. There
is a short post on the blog on this one. Others I am in currently in
are PBW, QQQQ and soon to be DIA.

Any good brokerage you choose will have educational information to get
you started in the mechanics but as always, research until you are
comfortable. Things like Volume, PE, PEG, moving averages etc all play
a part in assisting you in making your decision.

More Visa IPO Info

A quick statistic… MasterCard went public at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11. Visa's estimated sale price puts it at around 30. Does this mean that Visa will be limited to 1/3 of MC’s high price? Probably not, maybe on some technical plane but if you pay attention to any of the prime analysts or periodicals PE isn’t everything. Especially with the high momentum and interest in this event already stirred up. Besides statistics can be used to anyone’s advantage, just depends how you play the numbers…

But if we want to look at numbers let's look at credit/debit card usage with the chart below…

I am preparing myself to go all in this time and we’ll see what the river has in store for us…

TDAmeritrade IPO Purchase

I have been asked how to purchase an IPO on TDAmeritrade.  I mentioned the brute force method in an earlier post, set up your limit order and keep hitting the refresh button to see when it executes…  So you can call Ameritrade and set your limit order up the night before…

 

Straight off the website…

 

Can I trade IPOs?

TD AMERITRADE is normally not part of a "selling group", unless otherwise notified, you will not be able to purchase shares of Initial Public Offering (IPO) securities until trading has begun on the secondary market. Once the IPO begins trading on the secondary market, you will be able to place your trade online. If you wish to place a day, limit order on the day before the IPO begins trading on the secondary market, you can do so through a broker by calling 800-669-3900. A broker will ONLY accept these particular orders after the trading session has closed for the current day (4 P.M. ET).

Visa IPO MARCH 19 Open on 20

To start The Visa IPO should price on March 19 and open on March 20.

So I wrote last month about some possible influences that might affect the upcoming Visa IPO. I briefly discussed the potential of the credit crisis effecting the price potential of the IPO. Especially since momementum psychology has MasterCard setting the benchmark price potential for some. Another news story came out today about how far people are getting gehind on their payments and maxing out credit to the tune of trillions of unsecured debt.

First off Neither Visa or Mastercard actaully lend money. They provide the service of which other banks actaully lend the money. The fees charged by these companies makes up a substantial part of their revenue. So people like me and those I know who put everything on their credit card in order to maxmimize points yet pay off at the end of the month really lend to the CC companies making money.

It is also possible, and not the best reason to invest, but as the economy continues its downswing people will be looking at any means possible to buy things and that usually means they turn to credit cards. Remember fee based service, no debt on the balance sheet.

If you look at Visa's latest numbers I beleive this to have major upside potential. Visa said earlier this month that profit doubled to $424 million in the quarter ended Dec. 31. Revenue surged 76 percent to $1.49 billion. These numbers would cause a major surge in stock price in any publicly traded company.

Additionally they plan on putting $3 billion dollars aside to settle lawsuit activity.

Visa IPO to Raise $17 Billion

Feb 25, 8:44 AM EST

Visa filed with the SEC to sell 50% in the company or 406 million stocks
at a price between $37 and $42 per share on the success of MasterCard.

Visa Inc, the largest electronic payment processor, filed with the SEC
to sell 406 million shares at a price between $37 and $42 per share. The
offerig, the largest in the U.S., is likely to raise between $15 and $17
billion. Second largest charge processor, MasterCard, priced its
offering in May of 2006 and raised $2.45 billion at $39 per share, the
stock has since then jumped 400%.

From: http://www.123jump.com/

EPI an Indian ETF

Wisdom Tree’s India earnings fund began trading Friday, ticker EPI…  A great way to get broad coverage into the Indian stock market. Traded just over a million shares. 150 local Indian securities based on earnings primarily because of the trading regulations of India.

XTO Energy

Here it is, now complete, the oil and natural gas producer is priced very cheap right now around 52$.  Of course those of the lucky ones got it at 39$.  We all know the energy situation right now and if you look at industry comparatives this is definitely the time to get in on this company.  Natural gas prices haven’t experienced the same as crude oil, YET…  but research shows it’s coming.  It’s also an alternative energy so it fits right in line with our recent move into alternative energy stocks and ETFs.  Currently XTO is priced about 20-30$ lower than its lateral completion, Anadarko Petroleum, Devon Energy and EOG Resources.

 

Get in on it while you can, or want to!

Another Golden Speculation

Ok, so I have my shares of speculative stock, Amish Naturals I talked
about yesterday now I'll address Pacific Gold (pcfg.ob).

Over the past year the shares have plummeted from .40 to todays .045.
Yes four and half cents. The operations at the Black Rock Canyon mine
are behind schedule and of course this is a speculative, hence highly
volatile stock. But if there is any merit to the company and what
management is saying and doing to actually extract gold and with the
price of gold soaring everyday it is worth the watch and research
whether or not to buy shares.

Management says they should get operations on-line this year and if that
happens you should see the share price brought up by investors.

Watch the news on this one.

Visa IPO Update

Remember what I said earlier about the current economic environment's impact upon the Visa IPO? Looks like their might be some impact coming to light. Read this article from Reuters.com for more information: www.reuters.com/article/newIssuesNews/idUSN2741121220080127. It is not cancelled but possibly put on hold as other CC companies are taken consumer debt losses right now...

Amish Naturals AMNT.OB

I have been quite about this one for a long time, waiting for it's production and distribution to grow. It is now achieiving realistic levels of distribuiton with plan for larger growth of their pasta line in the Mid-atlantic, where many of us Italian types live. Over the past two months the company has been in the news quite a bit. Check out the latest quote and news at http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amnt.ob. They had hired a marketer to sell their stock through an payed-for-advertising brochure which made some easy momentum plays, I pocketed a quick couple thousand in a few days off it. But now it looks like it could have a decent future as a long holding. Might not be a bad time to get in under 2$. Volume has been heavier than usual, hopefully based on the news and not another marketing scheme.

Volume is a critical factor in Over the Counter stock trades. Without a lot of buyers and sellers, it's hard to make large plays in a timely manner.

Is the Dow 30 really cheap

DIA the ETF that tracks the Dow Jones Industrials top 30 seems to some analyst, pretty cheap right now.   

 

Morningstar wrote that the Dow was trading at a "very hefty" 17% discount to the firm's fair-value estimate of 14,000, which is in turn based on estimates on the index's component 30 stocks. The Dow closed Friday at 12,348.21.

 

The index will have two new players, Bank of American and Chevron, come Tuesday morning while saying good-bye to two others, Atlria and Honeywell.  Altria had much hype over the past year as a great play but I am not an expert on how the Dow 30 is comprised. 

Today's Successes

First Solar:

"Our 2007 results increased our position as the low-cost leader in the industry and brought us closer to achieving price points that make solar electricity viable," without significant government subsidies, First Solar chief executive Mike Ahearn said in a conference call with analysts.

This is a key statement for Solar Energy in general. Obtaining a competitive price point without government subsidy. When manufactures make solar cells at such an affordable rate as to not require govt intervention or 5+ years to recoup your investment it will be much more widely accepted. And that will lead to much higher stock prices if companies can keep production in line with demand.

By the way with all the hype of Solar being a China Play remember First Solar is out of Phoenix, AZ.

Read the rest here: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080213/solar_power.html?.v=1

PBW is the ETF I have been recommending, FSLR is one of their top 10 holdings

Baidu.com:

After the bell reported over 70% increase over last year. Up in afterhours trading. Let’s see what this does tomorrow. BIDU has some interesting plans for 2008, one to be competitive with ALibab.com. One warning was announced that mentioned a slow down with the recent bad winter weather experienced in lately. Still one to watch even though IBD 100 dropped it.

If you are looking at getting in on some BIDU action but don’t want to shell out 300/share try our friend the mutual fund/ETF; some funds holding BIDU are:

Fund—Shares—Percentage of holdings—Total

CALAMOS GROWTH FUND 575,000 2.55 $219,931,750 31-Oct-07

MORGAN STANLEY INST FD TR-MID CAP GROWTH PORT 278,096 1.23 $80,550,506 30-Sep-07

VAN KAMPEN MID CAP GROWTH FUND 141,026 .62 $40,848,180 30-Sep-07

Powershares Exhg Traded Fd-Powershares Golden Dragon Halter 131,447 .58 $50,277,163 31-Oct-07

Oberweis China Opportunities Fund 131,300 .58 $38,031,045 30-Sep-07

PACIFIC SELECT FUND-MID-CAP GROWTH PORTFOLIO 126,770 .56 $36,718,930 30-Sep-07

Allianz Fds-RCM Technology Fd 112,500 .50 $32,585,625 30-Sep-07

Van Kampen Strategic Growth Fd 100,000 .44 $20,820,000 31-Aug-07

VAN KAMPEN AGGRESSIVE GROWTH FUND 96,045 .43 $27,819,434 30-Sep-07

Legg Mason Partners Small Cap Growth Fd 91,500 .41 $26,502,975 30-Sep-07

Some new plays in todays market

Short funds are doing very well right now as expected in a market correction.  I still suggest repositioning what you can and accumulate cash over the next several months to be prepared for the turn-around or some significant events that are up and coming.  For quick trading with a high savings interest rate look at Etrade. 

 

Eastern Europe and Brazil should do well despite all the market correction activity in the U.S. and whatever other economic problems we have right now.  I suggest a good mutual fund that covers broad sectors in these two emerging markets.

Back to the basics

I have been asked what is the easiest thing I can do to start investing... My easiest answer is to find a low fee good return history index fund some of which can be found here:

 

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bestfunds/2008/indexfunds.html

 

Open an account at your company of choice and get on their monthly automatic investing plan.  Some of these are returning 13% over the last five-years...

 

More to come...

IPOs for the rest of us

Today I received a great question, one which prompts me to elaborate on trying to get the lowest price possible the day an IPO hit’s the street for public trading.

Here is a great article on how IPOs work based on the ever famous Google IPO, although GOOG was supposed to be available to the "average investor" lots of good info here:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20040812/news_1b12google.html

The primary factor here is that unless you have a large account (read most likely millions, I have heard of some getting in with reasonable accounts in the six-figures) with one of the underwriters or brokerage houses directly involved with the IPO. So unless someone has any way the rest of us can get in on an IPO at the IPO price this is how I have done it in the past.

I use TDAmeritrade for my active trading and Sharebuilder for my more dedicated long term buys, neither are participants in IPOs.

To get a low price you need to get in early, however the ticker is not available to trade on normal trading accounts until the day of the IPO.

TDAmeritrade will actually accept orders a few minutes early on “opening day.” If you try the looking up the ticker on Ameritrade it will not show until 10-20 minutes prior to the open. So I set my limit order to what I am willing to purchase and keep submitting until the system identifies the ticker and accepts the order.

Now, I have been successful this way, most recently on the VMW IPO which I got in on opening day at 51, much higher than the 28 others got but still below the 120+ it hit. Although in an attempt to not be greedy or emotional I sold before that 120+ moment. However, the possibility still exists that using a plain-jane limit order might prevent you from filling your order if you are setting stops or instructions of All or None, etc…

I figured this out from some research which pointed me to the 15-20 minutes early on Ameritrade to realizing that the trading house wouldn’t quote the new ticker until then preventing me from setting a limit order the night before like I would usually do.

RENESOLA IPO Opens Today!

NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Chinese solar wafer maker ReneSola Ltd (SOLA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Tuesday that it priced the initial public offering of its 10 million American Depositary Shares (ADSs) at $13.00 per share.

Each ADS represents two ordinary shares of the company. They will start trading on the New York Stock Exchange on Jan. 29 under the ticker symbol "SOL", it said.

Visa IPO, what else...

So what advice do I have today... Well, not much. So let's talk about the upcoming Visa IPO. It is scheduled to happen sometime within the next 12-months, plenty of time to shift resources around to get ready to buy the day it opens. First, how do you do this, for those of us who are mortals I like to place a limit order at which I am willing to buy and keep hitting the order button until it is accepted at the earliest possible time. This works with TDAmeritrade since they let you submit right before the bell. This is how I got in on VMW at 51. (Just a word to the wise, Wall Street can be brutal, if you saw, VMW dropped 22 after the bell today since it's forecast isn't what WS wanted to hear) So, store your cash and subscribe to my blog as I will be posting more on when some of my favorite IPO's are supposed to happen.

Back to Visa, my concern here is the current economy and the credit problems already encountered. If the consumer doesn't gain confidence on spending or more banks are forced to write off bad credit the potential for Visa to not do as well as expected is there. What is the issue you might ask? Well, again for us mortals who won't be getting in at the opening price we should be a little more conservative in what we are willing to pay. Otherwise expect some good near-term profits to be had.

Currently Visa's lead underwriters include JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. GS had an outstanding year despite all the economic turmoil. You can visit the SEC website to obtain the prospectus.

Automated Investing

Automated investing is one of the easiest, best ways to start an investing program. If the money goes directly to the investment before your pocket you are much more inclined to continue and realize that you don't necessarily miss it each month.

Sharebuilder and ETFs, Control, flexibility and discipline. I am starting to use automatic investing in PBW and QQQQ through sharebuilder. This is cheaper than commission through my on-line broker and happens automatically. Both of these ETFs contain most of the companies I discuss and with the current economic situtation should be a good place to open with a sizeable chunk of change and then continue to contribute over the long run. Plus they are ETFs so I have the ability to sell on the open market in the wake of news and research instead of waiting for someone to compute the NAV the following day after the news has had a chance to affect the fund price.

Another good recommended automated investment is MCD DRIP program MCDirect, of course, info here: http://www.mcdonalds.com/corp/invest/mcdirect_shares_prospectus.html. A great dividend payout from them is one reason that makes them a strong holding in the portfolio.

Can't make up its mind

That goes for everyone. How is it that we believe Wall Street has a mind of its own and that it must be satisified in order to bring the economy back to pre-recession days. If a child were to act this emotional they would be looked at like a spoiled brat throwing temper tamprums. How is lowering the interst by by 3/4 points going to help the average american begin making more purchases off-credit when they still live in fear of losing their home, paying for healthcare and trying to keep their gas tank full? It can't as proven by today's U.S. futures and the European indexes. Although the Heng Seng rose over 2000 points that was b/c it hasn't had a chance to react to the Fed decision and the recent earnings report.

So what does this mean, I think IMHO it means to start holding on to some cash and get smart on some of this years potential profit makers. The Visa IPO is scheduled for this year. This needs to be watched as the number of late payments across 30, 60 and 90 days increases. Then there are some tech stocks of some companies that I grew up with, namely the following

MySQL - Widely used open-source database.
Ingres - Currently profitable looking at a mid-year IPO
SugarCRM - Again profitable
ExactTarget Profitable
Parallels – Server virtualization software and a VMW Competitor targeting the Small and Medium Business

So my strategy is to close some positions and place that money into a high-yield savings account. This money will be marked for taking advantage of one or more of these IPO's.

Additonally I am beefing up my PBW ETF holdings in my belief in the need for alternative energies and to keep a look at companies that may profit from the "green-jobs" being touted by the current Presidential candidates.

Remeber don't by a stock on the way down. Look for the indicators that show a greater probability of floors being hit and buy the rebound. IBD top 100 is a good start.

What to do starts with what you believe

Being a member of the greedy croud, I have lost my share of money and unrealized profits. I have slowly broke out of this cycle by focusing on fundamentals and technical investing methods instead of emotions and chasing the doublers and triplers.

So the dilema of today's news is challenging. Dow futures suggest a 500-point drop today let alone the major drops in the overseas markets. I have been cotemplating in taking a slight loss or break even and sit on cash until the market changes or one of my research interests proves to have some potential. I could stick my cash in a high-yield savings account and be guaranteed some extra money without extra work or continue to work and stress over what to do next.

I could quote the bible all day on the "evils of money" but this one says it best for my intent of this blog, from Eclessiastes 5 (NLT):

Hoarding riches harms the saver. 14 Money is put into risky investments that turn sour, and everything is lost. In the end, there is nothing left to pass on to one’s children. 15 We all come to the end of our lives as naked and empty-handed as on the day we were born. We can’t take our riches with us.

So my point of this blog is to give to those in need despite the reason for their need and be happy doing so. My belief this idea would be greatly assisted if I was financially self-sustaining or independent seems to be in question. If I continue losing money in the market how am I helping anybody or achieving my goals. Sure I have automatic debits going to worldwide organizations but how much am I holding back because I need to keep fueling my retirement plan.

Two things to take away from this is do what is right and responsible to take care of your family and don't worry about how much you have in the future when you should be using it now...

U.S. Markets Closed But...

Today the U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King day. So what's the problem?

HANG SENG -1,383.01 -5.49% 23,818.86
NIKKEI 225 -535.35 -3.86% 13,325.94

Well, the rest of the world isn't closed today and unfortunately they don't believe the economic stimulus package Busch is propsoing is enough and will be coming to late to convince the U.S. buyers to start buying stuff again. Once again, that word recession is back on top of most investors conversations.

So the global economy is reacting to the U.S. economy woes. I guess I would have to agree, take the average U.S. person who is stuck owning a home that is worth less than they owe, fears of a recession and possible loss of jobs and try convincing them to spend their money on stuff they don't need. How much stress is on someone who fears losing their home or job? Although, I believe in personal responsibility what we as a country allowed to happen, outside investors, "free" credit, no-interes hype and ARMS for all is not good responsibility of a country.

So how do you fix that and at the same time, battle rising health-care costs, a failing home-market, fight a war and thwart the next terrorist event? I don't have an answer, nor do I think there is one outside of forgiving all the negative home-equity that people have accumulated during this correction period as a merciful outpouring of gernerosity. After all the banks are writing off billions, why not just forgive the debt over the market value of the homes and reset the loans, you still write off billions, less billions, but you also help the economy at the same time and still have a chance of recouping 70 to 90% of the loan values. This would be considered mercy that we all have been given and those that have homes and make the payments and aren't worried about losing theirs should understand this and be happy for what you have.

Anyway, I thank God for my home and job and will try to manage my finances as anyone shown this kind of mercy should.

Better Uranium Enrichment

Sounds like a news excerpt but I was researching alternative energy sources, which nuclear power is part of, and came across this issue brief from http://www.uic.com.au/nip33.htm

Timing was spot on as this proof-of-concept is to be complete by the end of 2008...

The only remaining laser process on the world stage is SILEX, an Australian development which is molecular and utilises UF6. In 1996 USEC secured the rights to evaluate and develop SILEX for uranium but relinquished these in 2003. (SILEX is also useable for silicon and other stable isotopes.)
In 2006 GE Energy entered a partnership to develop the SILEX process. It provided for GE (now GE-Hitachi) to construct in the USA an engineering-scale test loop (by end of 2008) then a pilot plant or lead cascade, which could be operating by 2010-12, and expanded to a full commercial plant. Apart from US$ 20 million upfront and subsequent payments, the license agreement will yield 7-12% royalties, the precise amount depending on how low the cost of deploying the commercial technology. GE referred to SILEX, which it has re-badged as Global Laser Enrichment (GLE), as "game-changing technology" with a "very high likelihood" of success. In August 2007 Silex confirmed that GE-Hitachi planned "to complete the test loop program at the end of 2008, which if successful, would open the way for the first commercial enrichment plant to be constructed."
In October 2007 the two largest US nuclear utilities, Exelon and Entergy, signed letters of intent to contract for uranium enrichment services from GEH. The utilities may also provide GEH with facility licensing and public acceptance support if needed for development of a commercial-scale GLE plant, for which the NRC expects an application in FY08. GEH has begun preparing a GLE test loop at Global Nuclear Fuel's Wilmington, North Carolina fuel fabrication facility - GNF is a partnership of GE, Toshiba, and Hitachi. Before moving ahead with full-scale production plans, GEH will first evaluate results of the testing, select a location for the proposed commercial plant and obtain a license to build and operate it. Site selection and commercial licensing are now under way with a view to start-up date of 2012, with capacity of 3.5 to 6 million separative work units (SWU).

What's new for 2008

Has it been a fun year? Obiously the questions are about what to do with your money now. Still believing in the alternative energy sector, I have been buying PBW lately, an ETF that covers most of the talked about alternative energy investments. Since it is an ETF it has wethered the storm better than say putting most of your money in FSLR. Although FSLR should recover when things starting getting better. Right now things are at a discount. As usuall press reports cause investers to sell and many companies are undervalued again. Such as BIDU, RIMM, AAPL, etc. SOLF is something to watch as well as the expected Visa IPO due this year. Keeping cash on hand sees to be the difficult part. Staying out of stocks that were bought without technical guidance. If you are a stochostics type, many stocks are at there bottom as well as below, near or at their 50-day moving average. Will the economic stimulous package help, we'll see but if it does and you feel like taking a risk, there will be some quick momentum when it happens and some quick profits if you limit your profits and don't get greedy.

PBW top 10 holdings:

AMSC Jan 18 18.31 0.64 3.38% 1,427,646 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

EMKR Jan 18 10.64 0.09 0.85%1,218,003 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

ESLR Jan 18 11.82 0.27 2.23% 5,789,335 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

FSLR Jan 18 175.88 8.68 5.19% 8,641,881 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

JASO Jan 18 56.30 0.24 0.43% 3,958,884 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

WFR Jan 18 65.83 2.75 4.36% 8,487,685 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

ORA Jan 18 42.79 1.71 3.84% 309,506 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

SPWR Jan 18 74.75 6.21 7.67% 6,925,097 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

STP Jan 18 56.96 1.97 3.58% 5,695,885 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More

ZOLT Jan 18 34.89 1.41 4.21% 1,342,970 Chart, Messages, Key Stats, More