Extra, More Visa IPO Thoughts

It’s been quiet lately on the news front so I decided to make my own.  It’s getting close and the local crowd has been maneuvering investments as needed to free up some cash to invest on either 19 or 20 March just depending which one of us gets lucky.  So the question is to invest the day it opens after the IPO or wait until the pullback, should there be a noticeable pullback.  Well here are my thoughts, as usual…  There are two things that I am focusing on and neither of them are things you can really research your way into a strong decision.  One, is who is really making out and why now.  I’m thinking the answer to number one is the banks that are going to make about 10B out of this and are in need of some cash on the books given the current credit crisis.  That is the abridged explanation as to the who and why now question.  The second question is how much can Visa really grow given the PE that they are opening (Ok, PEs don’t necessarily mean that much) with the current environment.  Now the second part is the purely speculative or this question.  You either say as times get rougher with the economy people will turn to credit to buy things and pay over time or you say people will  not use credit as much out of fear of not having the same income due to job changes/losses or loss of equity in their homes.  So who is right?  Don’t know, I guess we could do some statistics and call a number of people and get somewhat of a technical indicator but… that’s not going to happen.  I see momentum and interest driving the price higher than the IPO then a pullback and becoming a good long-term holding.  Also, is their really much room for Visa to grow.  Growth is the question.  Will Visa be a good holding, most likely, but growth is what we are after next to dividends.  If it doesn’t grow it doesn’t chase MasterCard and after all that has been the most scientific benchmark I’ve seen since the announcement…  I guess some research into market coverage for Visa and MC and take an analytical approach to determine growth potential…   Not much time left we’ll see if I decide to be analytical or speculative…