Monday, July 27, 2026

🦈 ASTS

SharkWater Trading  •  Income Strategies • Options • Space

Turning the Wheel on ASTS: How I'm Getting Paid While a $134 Rocket Drifts Sideways at $56

Six weeks ago, AST SpaceMobile was a $134 stock and every timeline on the internet was screaming to the moon. Today it's drifting in the mid-$50s, chopping between roughly $55 and $60 like a boat with no wind in its sails.

For the buy-and-hold crowd, that's purgatory. You bought the story, the story got cut in half, and now it just… floats.

For a premium seller, it's payday. Because a stock that can't decide which way to go is a stock whose options are stuffed with rich implied volatility — and rich IV is chum in the water. When the tape won't hand you a trend, you stop betting on direction and start charging rent on the chop.

Here's how I'm turning the wheel on ASTS.

Why the Rocket Is Drifting

To sell premium on a name, you first have to understand why it's stuck. ASTS is caught in a genuine tug-of-war:

Pulling up: The BlueBird Block 2 birds launched in June — the largest commercial comms arrays ever put in low Earth orbit. Piper Sandler named it their preferred space stock and slapped an Overweight on it. The bull case (direct-to-phone, from space, no tower) is still very much alive.

Pulling down: A billion-dollar convertible note raise dropped a dilution anvil on the chart. Revenue is real but still a rounding error against a ~$22B market cap. And there's a Q2 earnings date circled in early August that nobody wants to be offside on.

Bulls and bears pulling equally hard is the definition of lateral. And lateral, high-IV chop is the exact ocean the wheel was built to sail.

The Wheel, Plainly

The wheel is three moves that feed each other:

  1. Sell cash-secured puts below the stock to get paid for agreeing to buy shares cheaper.
  2. If assigned, take the shares at a net cost below today's price.
  3. Sell weekly covered calls against those shares to get paid again while you hold.

Then it repeats. You are, quite literally, getting paid at every point on the compass.

Step 1 — Ladder the puts, don't stack them on one strike

I don't sell one fat put and pray. I spread a ladder across several strikes below the current price, so I'm not all-in at any single level. Something like (illustrative — pull the live chain for real numbers):

Sell-to-open put Cushion below spot Why
$52.5 ~7% Closest to the money — richest premium, highest assignment odds
$50.0 ~11% The psychological round number, strong support zone
$47.5 ~15% Deeper cushion, lighter premium, "I'd genuinely love it here"

Each rung throws off weekly or bi-weekly premium. If ASTS keeps drifting sideways above them, every one of those puts bleeds to zero and I keep 100% of the credit as income. The ladder means a dip might assign me the top rung while the lower rungs keep printing — I get paid and I get my shares at a discount.

Step 2 — Get assigned, and mean it

Here's the rule that separates wheel traders from wheel victims: only sell a put at a strike where you'd be genuinely happy to own the stock. Assignment isn't the accident — it's a designed outcome. When ASTS taps $52.5 and puts those shares in my account, I'm not panicking. I wanted them at $52.5 minus the premium I already pocketed. My real cost basis is lower than the strike.

Step 3 — Sell weekly covered calls on the assigned shares

Now I own shares, and idle shares are a lazy crew. So I put them to work selling weekly covered calls above my cost basis — say the $60 or $62.5 line. High IV means even a one-week, out-of-the-money call pays real money. Three outcomes, all of them fine:

  • Stock stays flat → call expires, I keep the premium, I sell another next Friday.
  • Stock drops → the call cushions the loss, and I keep wheeling.
  • Stock rips through my strike → my shares get called away for a gain plus all the premium, and I start the whole wheel over selling puts again.

That's the machine. Puts pay me to wait. Assignment hands me shares cheap. Calls pay me to hold. The wheel turns as long as the water stays choppy — and choppy is exactly what ASTS is serving.

The Sharks Circling This Particular Wheel

Now the part most "passive income" posts conveniently skip. ASTS is not a sleepy dividend stock you can wheel on autopilot. This is a high-voltage name, and the wheel has real teeth pointed back at you:

The earnings landmine. There's a Q2 report due in early August. Selling puts or calls across an earnings date on a stock this volatile is picking up coins in front of a freight train — one gap can blow through every rung of your ladder at once. I either close the wheel before the print or size it knowing the whole thing is a binary bet. No pretending otherwise.

It can be a falling knife. This stock has already put down 36% in nine days on the tape this year. The wheel is beautiful in a range and brutal in a sustained downtrend — you get assigned on the way down, then your covered calls are stranded underwater while the shares keep sinking. The strategy assumes the chop holds. If the bottom falls out, you're a long-term bag-holder collecting nickels against a boulder.

Your calls cap the moonshot. ASTS ran to $134 once. If the next catalyst reignites that move, my $60 covered calls hand the upside to someone else. Selling premium on a rocket means agreeing, in advance, to get off before orbit.

High IV is high for a reason. The fat premiums aren't free money — they're the market pricing in exactly the gap risk above. You're being paid well because the danger is real. Respect the quote.

Rules of the Deck

  • Only wheel a name you'd hold through a drawdown. If you don't believe in the ASTS story long-term, you have no business getting assigned its shares.
  • Size it small. This is a speculative, cash-burning story stock — wheel a slice, never the whole account.
  • Mind the calendar. Earnings and big launches change the whole risk picture. Trade around them deliberately, not by accident.
  • Take the premium and stay humble. The wheel is a rent-collection business, not a lottery ticket. Consistency beats hero trades.

The Takeaway

You don't need ASTS to go up to make money on ASTS. You need it to keep doing what it's doing right now — drifting, chopping, going nowhere in particular while its options stay fat with fear. Sell the puts, take the shares on the dips, sell the calls on the shares, and let the wheel turn.

Just keep one eye on the August print. That's the wave that can flip the whole boat.

Watch the water. 🐚


SharkWater Trading is educational content, not financial advice. Options carry substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for every investor. ASTS is a highly volatile, speculative security capable of large, sudden moves; the strategies described can result in assignment, capped gains, and losses exceeding the premium collected. Strike and premium figures are illustrative — always pull the live option chain. Do your own diligence and size for the storm, not the calm.

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

🦈 Trading Space

 Trading the Space Lane: An Options Playbook for the Cosmos Watchlist


BLUF: Space stocks are volatility machines right now, and that is exactly what an options trader wants. The playbook splits in two. Around a hard, dated catalyst (a launch, a landing, an earnings print) you either buy cheap directional exposure before the event or sell the fat premium and let the volatility crush work for you after. In the quiet windows between catalysts, you harvest income by selling cash secured puts on the names you actually want to own.


The one rule that governs all of it


Implied volatility is the price of the option. It swells before a known event and collapses the moment that event passes. That collapse is the “IV crush,” and it is the most important thing to understand before you trade any of these names.


Think of it like flood insurance on the Gulf. The week a hurricane is forecast, premiums spike because everyone wants coverage. The day after the storm passes, hit or miss, that same policy is cheap again. Buying options into a catalyst is buying insurance at hurricane prices. Selling options into a catalyst is writing that policy and collecting the fear premium. So the question before every trade is simple: am I buying insurance or writing it?


The Core Traders: liquid options, real catalysts


RKLB — Rocket Lab (High IV)

Next earnings Aug 6, 2026, after close (confirmed).  The bigger prize is the Neutron rocket’s first flight, targeted for Q4 2026.  Over the past eight quarters the stock has averaged roughly an 8% move around earnings.


Bull: record revenue, a backlog north of $2B, stacking defense awards, Neutron finally in sight.

Bear: valuation prices in near flawless execution; any Neutron slip and it gives back 10% on a headline.

SharkWater Take: two catalysts stacked into the back half of the year make this both a premium seller’s dream and a lottery buyer’s playground.

Play it: into earnings, sell a cash secured put or put credit spread below support to harvest IV and let the crush do the work. For Neutron, a call debit spread dated past the launch window caps cost and defines risk on a binary event.


ASTS — AST SpaceMobile (Highest IV)

Next earnings around mid August 2026.  The rolling catalyst is the launch cadence: BlueBird satellites launching every one to two months on average toward 45 to 60 in orbit by end of 2026.  Beta near 2.7 with short interest close to 18%.


Bull: FCC commercial authorization in hand, ~60 carrier agreements, a fresh catalyst almost every launch.

Bear: serial earnings misses, heavy cash burn, a prior launch failure write off, and a valuation that lives on flawless deployment.

SharkWater Take: highest octane name on the board, and the short interest means squeezes are real.

Play it: IV is expensive, so naked long calls bleed. Prefer a call debit spread ahead of a scheduled launch, or sell weekly cash secured puts into the fear if you want the shares. Size small; this gaps 15% overnight.


LUNR — Intuitive Machines (Binary catalyst)

Next earnings early August 2026.  The real event is the IM-3 lunar landing; the mission timeline currently runs through March 2027 after a launch delay.  Backlog is roughly $1.1B.


Bull: now a vertically integrated prime after the Lanteris deal, record backlog, positive adjusted EBITDA.

Bear: success based missions mean one tipped over lander re-rates the story, as IM-1 and IM-2 taught traders.

SharkWater Take: the truest binary on the list. A landing is a coin flip the market treats as a referendum.

Play it: for the landing, a cheap call spread is pure speculation, not a position. For income, the weekly put premium is generous; sell cash secured puts on dips to get paid to wait for a lower entry.


FLY — Firefly Aerospace (Newer chain)

Next earnings around late September 2026.  Firefly still expects three more Alpha launches in 2026, with Flight 8 targeted for late summer.  Earnings prints have averaged roughly a 9% move.  Note it has only traded publicly since August 2025,  so the chain is young.


Bull: record revenue growth, expanding NASA lunar opportunity, SciTec adding missile warning exposure.

Bear: wider spreads, thinner open interest, and the market has punished record prints on margin slips.

SharkWater Take: great story, thinner plumbing. Respect the bid ask and skip market orders.

Play it: stick to defined risk spreads and work limit orders. A put credit spread into a launch you expect to succeed collects premium with a known max loss.


PL — Planet Labs (Quiet window)

Fell about 26% the day after its June 4 report;  next earnings land around September 8 to 14, 2026.  Record quarterly revenue of $94M, up 42%, with backlog over $906M.


Bull: recurring revenue base is real, defense and intelligence revenue up more than 65%, three straight quarters clearing Rule of 40.

Bear: the market just knocked it down 26% on a solid print, so positioning matters more than fundamentals short term.

SharkWater Take: with earnings behind it, PL sits in a catalyst quiet window until September, the cleanest premium selling setup on the board.

Play it: this is a wheel candidate. Sell cash secured puts where you would happily own it, collect through the quiet weeks, and if assigned, sell covered calls. No binary event risk until the September print.


The ETFs and thin names: different rules


ARKX (ARK Space & Defense) and NASA (Tema Space) are diversified baskets with lower IV and thin options interest. Treat them as directional core positions or covered call vehicles, not premium farms. The basket smooths out the fear premium you are trying to sell. YSS (York Space Systems) is newer and thinly covered; confirm the chain has real open interest and tight spreads before trading options at all. If the plumbing is not there, trade the shares.


Bottom line


Two clean ways to make money here. Sell rich premium in the quiet windows on names you would own anyway (PL now, LUNR and RKLB on dips), and buy cheap, defined risk directional exposure ahead of the hard catalysts (Neutron on RKLB, the launch cadence on ASTS and FLY, the IM-3 landing on LUNR). Let the IV crush be your tailwind. Size for double digit overnight gaps, keep event bets small enough to lose, and always know whether you are buying insurance or writing it.


Fair winds and full premium. Keep your risk tight and your powder dry.


Disclaimer: Educational content only, not financial advice or a recommendation. Options carry substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. Earnings dates and launch windows shift; confirm with a live source before trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results.