Monday, March 29, 2010

Watching Natural Gas (XOM XTO UNL UNG GAZ)

With all the talk of natural gas this year it is the worst performing commodity despite some of the harshest winter we have had in a long time.  As most things energy (or Greece) Speculators have driven the price down, just the opposite of the oil price action we saw a couple of years ago from speculation.  Additionally the governement numbers showed an increase in supply adding to the over production and under use (more supply and less demand = lower prices) However, most analyst and refiners see a short term consolidation in price with a 2-3$ increase in the long term which is about 100% up from the $5 mark of today...

XOM jumped today, taking our Jan 11 75 options with it after the planned acquisition of XTO Energy for a small premium.  From DJN today:

XTO Energy Inc. (XTO), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
Premium offered: $0.41 or 0.87%
Acquirer: XOM
Target: XTO
Shares offered per share: 0.7098 share
Value of offer per share: $47.49
Value of outstanding common equity: $27,559,864,337
Acquirer share price: $66.91
Target share price: $47.08
Expected closing: 2Q 2010 5/16/2010
Annualized gain: 6.61%
Note: Exxon's deal with XTO contains language allowing Exxon to back out of the agreement if Congress passes a law requiring stronger federal oversignt of a controversial drilling technique, called hydraulic fracturing, or "fracking", illegal or "commercially impracticable." The companies
participated in a hearing in late January about the issue and the EPA has started a study on it. Critics of the method have say fracking creates pollution, but U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu has also said he wouldn't
favor a ban on it.
Some Nat Gas ETF's that are near/at their 52-week lows: UNL UNG GAZ. 

Happy Trading...

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